Well, I've taken a lot of stats, including Spring Training Win Percentage amongst others... I crunched the numbers, and this is what it prorates out to for the regular season:

Texas Rangers 0-162, but they finish tied with the Angels.

Something has got to give, gentlemen.

Now I get it. Like humor-but different.

I am looking for this team to go 82-82 in 2013, pitching is not going to carry over for a fourth year and it would take at least three guys having career years to put up the offensive numbers we've seen the last three seasons to make the play-offs.

Ahhhh, 81-81, dufus!

87-75, 2nd place.

Tampa Bay falls out of contention in July, trades David Price to Texas for Mike Olt, Martin Perez, Luis Sardinas, and Joey Gallo.

Then the Rangers win the division at 91-71.

We're gonna win the division regardless of any trades. Mark my words

That optimism is refreshing.

I am leery of Ranger July trades. Three examples: [1] the Rangers trade for a 100 rbi first baseman the year before, and he knocks in 2 runs in 105 abs, [2] the Rangers trade for a pitcher who was 8-3 and 2.34 era for a mediocre team and goes 4-6 with a 3.98 era, and [3] the Rangers trade for the NL ERA leader and he goes from 2.25 to 5.09 in the AL. Those three: Jorge Cantu, Cliff Lee and Ryan Dempster. Price may just be lights-out for the Rangers, but their track record is not the best when it comes to July acquisitions. And that may be a huge package, especially by July when Olt and Perez may be established and Sardinas and Gallo move way up in the TOP 100 Prospects list. Rather trade Andrus to a Cardinal or Ray team in desperate need of a top short stop for their drive to the playoffs, when names like Archer, Miller, Moore or even Taveras are discussed

ummm i think you should revisit your cliff lee assessment.......who cares about the regular season when the man carries us through the postseason.......oh and what did that cost???? justin smoak??? beavin????

don't be so leery

Rangers finish 83-69. They dig a hole in May/ June that they can't dig out of. I foresee an average offense and a decrepit pitching staff (aside from Darvish who finishes 2nd in Cy Young voting to Verlander).

For the Rangers to win 90+ they need more than half of the team to have career years and to acquire a TORP and a bullpen piece.

I disagree Nompton. Decrepit pitching staff? Harrison is at the least a number 3 starter, and Holland is as well. I'll take a 1, 3, 3 as the top three starters on the staff. Time will tell as to how well Ogando and Perez pitch this season, but I would expect them to at least be .500 in W/L. Also consider the fact that Lewis will return at some point. If Kinsler, Cruz, Beltre, Murphy, and Andrus play to their average form, this is still a very good offense. However, Olt, AJ, and Berkman need to stay healthy and produce, as well as getting reasonable pitching from the bullpen for the team to contend. I'm calling a 90-72 record, which gives this team a chance to win the West or play for a WC. I'm not buying the LAA right now. Beyond Weaver, their pitching staff may very well be decrepit.

Rangers finish 4th .
LA, Oakland and Seattle in that order post superior records.

SP is spotty good, however lacks depth and consistency.
Therefore RP is a non factor.

Batting/ offense is non run producing.

Team lacks leadership .

Has no "scare factor", as possessed in previous years.

AJ, Beltre, Berkman and Moreland MUST PRODUCE !

Andrus trade NOW is mandatory to reap his value.... for any chance of the Rangers sniffing Playoff opportunity .

I do like what will evolve in 2014.

I disagree Nompton. Decrepit pitching staff? Harrison is at the least a number 3 starter, and Holland is as well.

Eh, at this moment I'm not even sure Derek Holland's ceiling is as a #3. He needs to pitch like he did in 2011 -- worth 3.6 fWAR -- to be worthy of that designation. Would it shock me if he has a 4.0 FIP-win season? No. But it's almost like we need that + the '11-'12 Matt Harrison + a good Alexi Ogando to make the postseason. We're banking on a lot from the rotation.

trickydick, those three named are or were top tier major leaguers at the top of their game when acquired but still put up those numbers for the Rangers. And you seem to have selective memory, and forget that in the two key WORLD SERIES starts he was un-Lee- like and had numbers like 0 for 2 with an era of 6.99, not what you want at the very most important time for your ACE. Still would take Lee this year with the Rangers, even if he is now way over paid for his current level of productivity. Lee did have some outstanding indivdual games prior to the WS, but if I recall so did Humber last year, including a no hitter, but I would not want him even as the Rangers #5 this year. Lee did have a major presence that influenced other arms on the Rangers, but to say he was successful is not looking at his total time on the mound for the Rangers. 2010 was more due to the collapse of the Angels and Mariners, and Hamilton's incredible end run then anything else.

Banking a lot?

Harry just needs to do what Harry does. That'd take some of the hairiness out of the situation.

Yu Darvish: Poster child for DOH! All'a those other teams are gonna WISH they'd offered that $60 mil posting fee as he cruises to the CY. Verlander's about done. He began with a bit of a decline last year and the hill only gets steeper from here. Weaver is looking for his career-ending injury and Felix isn't allowed to pitch against Texas, anymore, 'cuz we know how to hit him.

Don't sell Dutch short, either. If he really is focused this year? He'll be a solid #2. He and Matt could both post near-3.00 ERAs.

And, my bet for that #5-cum-#4 slot is Martin Perez. He'll give it a real go and will be a success this year. This Year.

The question will be Alexi. His RP performance was down a bit last year. If he can't develop that 3rd pitch, he's on his way gone 'cuz the Rangers don't keep relievers long-term. My guess there is that, when Colby comes back, it'll be Alexi's spot he assumes.

The pitching will be much better, overall, than it was last year. If our hitting can just float its way to maturity, we'll be fine come August/September/October.

I think everyone penning in the Rangers rotation to post league-leading numbers needs to step back and look at career numbers for our staff.

I'm going to assume Darvish lives up to his ace/ TORP potential because I have a soft-spot for Yu that is only reinforced by his stats. Assuming Harrison improves upon last season is a large stretch. Essentially you'd be betting that he will continue to defy odds. I'm not saying Harry will drop off the face of the earth, but he'll pitch like a #3, not a #2. Holland needs to post career numbers (as eric said, >3.5 WAR) just to be an effective #3. Until I see more than a half season of consistent result from Holland, you shouldn't expect anything better than last year. Ogando and Perez are total wild cards. Achieveing .500 in the AL West will NOT be easy.

Everyone (not named Houston) got better last year and the Rangers did not. The Angels rotation will be better, the A's have a very good rotation, and the M's have a very good rotation. The Rangers also lost quite a bit of offensive firepower with Napoli and Hamilton leaving. 50-70 HR/ yr will not magically appear from the loins of Martin/ Berkman. Everyone is also trying to count on Murphy repeating or improving on his past year's performance, something I think is highly unlikely.

So what happens, if we have a pitching injury and Beltre pulls his hammy? What happens if Murphy and Andrus regress a bit? What happens if Darvish needs to shut it down because of back stiffness? What if Soria isn't back until the end of July? What if Berkman is injury prone the entire year? What if Nathan can't close out games? Who the hell is even in our bullpen? Scheppers and Lindblom? What if our best player never even sees significant playing time? (I'm talking about Profar)

IMHO, there are way too many question marks to pen-in this team for 87+ wins. The Rangers are dangerously close to having a sub .500 season be a distinct likelihood. Imagine Beltre is out all of June with a hamstring pull and doesn't hit his stride until the end of July because his timing is off. Imagine Cruz is suspended for 50 games. Imagine AJP and Soto just sucking balls. If any combination of these happen, we're not looking at a pretty picture.

I'd like nothing more than for me to be 100% wrong.

Here's my "storylines" for the year:

Murphy has a down year.
Harry has a down year.
Kinsler has an awesome year, flirts with 30/30
Beltre is slightly down but only trails Kinsler in fWAR by a slim margin.
Darvish does amazing and wonderful things with his hands that preserves his sunshine ERA
Cruz posts 2.1 fWAR this year.
Scheppers arm falls off.
Perez goes 11-11 with a 4.35 ERA
Profar posts amazing numbers in AAA but drops off half way through the year because he's bored.
Olt strikes out a bunch but also hits a ton of bombs
Martin posts 2.0 WAR while stealing a fair number of bags

I have a hard time believing what some of you are saying. If JD and the front office thought that the Rangers were only going to be a roughly .500 club in 2013, why would they publicly say with complete confidence that they still like their club a lot, and that they still expect it to perform well and remain competitive? And that was before they signed Lance Berkman.

I'm not going to pretend that we didn't lose key pieces. But individual players are often overvalued, and I like the smart additions the front office made. There's a good chance that some of the young players will step up as well. It seems like you are brainstorming a list of everything that could go wrong and then claiming that we should realistically expect most of those things to happen in the same season with a club as deep and talented as this. Why not relax and enjoy a Spring Training game?

SilverSlugger, I don't think either Nompton or myself are saying all these adverse side effects will come true; we're saying to ignore them and pretend everything is all hunky dory is the mistake.

Most of us operate with mild to extreme confidence in our front office. I can't imagine many people look at this regime as making catastrophic mistakes. But there is a flip side to every coin. This team could win 90+ games if everything is clicking; they could also be sub-.500.

The sky is the limit in 2013, yet the floor is certainly within realistic reach.

nompton the rangers cant finish 83-69

and anyone who thinks the cliff lee trade wasnt a huge win is a huge idiot

My mistake, I meant 83-79.

My point is that the Rangers are "boom or busy" this year, with the odds saying the latter is more likely. Like many of our prospects, we have a high ceiling, but also a low floor, nothing is a sure deal. Last year and in 2011, we had a higher floor. Basically, the rangers #bottomed out down the stretch last year an still made the WC. Bottoming out this year may mean struggling to get to .500.

Also, do you really think JD would say he doesn't think this team will compete for a Series?

The direction of this team will be made by the allstar break this year.

If we are still in the AL West/ Wild Card's hunt.....goodbye Profar (for big names)

If we are under .500 and out of it......goodbye Andrus (for youth)

but as of now I have us winning 87-89 games

Lee for the Rangers did not perform Lee-like. To overlook that is to overlook the reality of his performance at the end of 2010. Is he an ACE, YES. That is why the Rangers tried so hard to sign him to a huge contract On a different topic; if the Rangers want a back up for Berkman and a right handed bat that can be counted on. then Vlad wants to play this season, and he looks in better shape then in the last 5 years. He is 38, but when it comes to hitting he is ageless. Question though, where would he play beyond DH, corner outfield [only if his knees have vastly improved in health]. or that Berkman plays first base on more than an occasional basis. But a heart of the lineup of Berkman- Beltre- Guerrero-Cruz can match any team for power and production, if and a big if old legs can hold up. For this season, with a huge loss in that aspect, it may be worth the low cost effort. An additional factor would be allowing Olt and Profar to play AAA to deeper into the season.

Move on-this is getting old.