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Forum > STATS don't lie !

OK got tired of the geniuses saying we are to have a void in hitting with the loss of the big3. Used Berkmans 2011 since he was hurt in '12. AJ is a leader (and the Angels hate him) Mitch is huge defensive improvement , and factor in Gentry /Martin and you improve defensively and equal out the hitting. Have a look at this :

hr rbi avg yr
hambone 43 128 285 2012
nap nap 24 56 227 2012
face (MY) 8 67 277 2012
75 251 263

berkman 31 94 301 2011
aj 27 77 278 2012
Mitch bitch 15 50 275 2012
73 221 285

hr rbi avg
-2 -30 +.022

gentry 1 26 304

Ready for the year !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

February 21, 2013 at 11:25 PM | Unregistered CommenterCigman

I don't think you should expect Berkman or AJ to achieve what they did in those two years.

February 22, 2013 at 10:48 AM | Unregistered CommenterTankTheFrank

Agree with Tank, don't think you'll get the same year out of Berkman since he's had 2 knee surgeries and played 32 games since 2011. Morelands BA will go down if he plays full time against righties and lefties. AJ may come close to 27 HR's if he and the right field porch get to know each other well.

February 22, 2013 at 12:29 PM | Unregistered CommenterRoy

Not saying I disagree with Tank at all - definitely don't think we can expect this out of Berkman or AJ, and I think it's still to not admit we lost some at the plate this year. That being said, I'd also like to add that I don't think you can expect those numbers out of the first three either. Maybe Napoli - he is the only one I can see improve b/c I think he was hurt last year (although maybe he's permanently hurt). But Josh's numbers should drop as well as a combination of age, ballpark, pressure, and increased hollywood temptations (ok, maybe that one is a stretch), and MY's will drop just b/c he sucks so bad. Not that anybody is even counting that as a loss anyways.

February 22, 2013 at 12:32 PM | Unregistered CommenterTxball

Another problem is that you're double counting mitch's contributions. he was fairly consistently in the lineup last year at 1B, so to use his production from 2012 as an addition to this year's production is risky. it's a tough comparison because you're looking at an outfielder to replace Hamilton, but the only new outfielder is going to be the Gentry/Martin platoon, which we don't have a full year of data on. I think there is definitely going to be a dropoff in offensive production, which is why the pitching needs to be all it can be.

February 22, 2013 at 12:39 PM | Unregistered Commenterandrew

Hi Cigman. It's refreshing to see your positive take on things. The Rangers, even by their own estimation, had an underwhelming off-season. But the beauty of Spring is everyone starts tied for first place. Everyone's stat lines read the same. Everyone is, or nearly so, in the best shape of their lives. So I hate being negative. The Rangers can win the West this year. I just feel that their margin for error is thinner than in the past two seasons. If the following questions can be answered positively, anything can happen.

Can Lance Berkman stay healthy? If so, how much does he have left?

Can AJ Pierzynski, who credits his "good genes" for his health, come up with another career-type year?

Can Mitch Moreland, with that Will Clark-like lefty swing, stay healthy and perform like Clark?

Was Ian Kinsler's significant overall decline, last year, due to his ankle injury?

Is Kinsler really in the best shape of his life?

Can Adrian Beltre, who's actual age might be closer to Berkman's, avoid hitting the wall this season.

What type major leaguer will Profar be? What happens psychologically, when he is sent down again? Where does he play?

Can Andrus add a .300 bat w/pop to his arsenal?

Can David Murphy give the club what he gave them last year?

What type major leaguer will Martin be? Will a bulked up Borbon outplay him? If so, then what?

Will Nellie Cruz lose 50 games?????

Is Perez the best choice for 5th starter?

If Ross is the #5, do you trust Michael Kirkman as the primary LHP in the pen?

There are 5 jobs available in the Ranger's pen. Will this area be a plus for us this year?

Can Joe Nathan stay healthy and not burn out?

Can Harrison repeat last year?

Can Holland grow up and be consistent?

Can Ogando, a former outfielder, get anywhere near 200 IP?

Will Colby, Neffy and Soria be themselves upon returning?

What will the effect of losing FACE, Josh and Nap have on the clubhouse chemistry?

How will the losses affect Wash's management style?

Will Wash continue to grow as a manager?

If the Ranger's start slowly, how will the FO react?

Like I've already mentioned, it's going to get really interesting

Peace

February 22, 2013 at 12:54 PM | Unregistered Commenterdrseuss

Agreed, Txball. I wouldn't expect Josh to be that productive overall, and Napoli is such a mystery, who knows. But I think the ages of Puma and AJ lead to those years being more aberration than trend. If we get 45/160/280 combined from those two, I'd be happy.

February 22, 2013 at 3:26 PM | Unregistered CommenterTankTheFrank

Stats don't lie?
Would you want Wee Willie Keeler on your team?

February 23, 2013 at 12:36 AM | Unregistered CommenterPT