What is your opinion of the A.J. Pierzynski signing?
MJH on accountability
I think Leonys Martin plays a key role in the Rangers 2013 season, especially offensively, but I honestly don't know what to expect from him. ZiPS projections have him hitting .270 with 8 HR, 42 RBI, 43 R, 15 SB, 1.2 WAR (based on 388 PAs). Based on his success at AAA last season, and the hype he's received since being signed in 2011, I'd sure like to expect more from him than that.
But how good is he? What's a good comparison for his upside? Nick Markakis? Shane Victorino? David Murphy? Angel Pagan? Dexter Fowler? Peter Bourjos? Franklin Gutierrez? Michael Brantley?
I've never been good at the comparison game, but what I will say is from what we've seen of Ron Washington, he isn't huge on the idea of regular platoons.
I think you'll either see Martin succeed early on and win a majority of time in CF+RF or struggle and be the lesser half of a Craig Gentry platoon.
As a quick reference from 2012, Gentry had 269 PAs and Murph had 521. I think it's much more likely Martin is around one of those two numbers that smack in between them. That said I'll predict:
490PA, .274/.330/.560 for the guy with a dozen dingers and 20+ steals. Yeah, I've got my rose colored glasses on. It's Friday.
If he did that I'd be thrilled. Would like to see a tad higher OBP but otherwise that would be a great start for him.
I expect him to outperform Trout. You heard it here first.
A .560 SLG%? That's insane...
I'll go ahead and predict .290/.360/.470/.830 with 15 HR, 10 triples, 30 doubles, and 20 steals.
That would be amazing.
I think everyone is way underselling this guy. They invested a lot of money in him, and given the year Cespedes had for the A's last year without any experience the states my slash line for Martin is: .299/.359/.499 19hr and 9sb (looking at his sb numbers in the minors they aren't very good).
Hey Homro is back.
Sorry that was uncalled for. I'm obviously still struggling with my newly admitted homosexuality and this is just an outward expression of that.
Saw him play in Frisco 2011 season, he caught a pop fly dead center at the warning track. Runner on 3rd tagged up, he threw a rocket right on the money to home plate and got the runner out. It might have been one of the most impressive things I've seen. Definitely a rookie of the year moment.
Leonys is the one player than can change the lineup batting order. As good as Murphy was in 2012it never really influenced Wash's thinking. Moreland can show big strides, but Wash won't believe it.The only way Kinsler moves out of leadoff is if we sign Bourn or Martin becomes an A+ whirling dervish.
Bill James Projects a 791 OPS and if you translate it out to 400 AB's, which is what I think he will get, he would also hit over 10 HR with 24 stolen bases. I would take that.
Fangraphs projects 15 SB, 10 HR, a 780 OPS and a 2.4 WAR Season for Martin over 378 AB's in 109 Games.
Either way I'll be happy. My prediction 290/360/480 (840 OPS) with 17 stolen bases and 14 home runs in 412 AB's. I honestly am starting to believe that Martin could at least have 1 all star season in his prime.
As much as I've touted Martin, I am inclined to think Fangraphs hit the nail on the head with their projection... which, all things considered, is great.
Yeah I would be stoked with fangraphs projection, and assuming we get about another 2 War from Gentry, thats 4.5 WAR from our centerfield tandem. Baseball Reference had Josh at 3.4 WAR last year just in case anyone was wondering.
I can't really project these players in isolation because playing time is not settled.
I'm not nearly as optimistic on David Murphy as most here seem to be. It's one thing to have a .380 OBP when you're hitting mostly righties and selected spots against lefties. It's something altogether different to do that as an everyday player. As much crap as Wash has deservedly received for his handling of the roster in 2012 no one can argue that he didn't get maximum production from David Murphy. I am not expecting Murphy to produce anywhere close to that .380 OBP again in 2013 and could easily see a significant decline that results in him again sitting against righties most of the time.
As for Martin.....I just don't know. He could struggle and not really carve out a role for himself....or he could blossom and become an everyday player at either CF or RF. Same with Gentry. He could be platooned and not get more than 250 ABs....or he could prove an absolute weapon in CF while becoming a annoying slap-and-run hitter constantly causing headaches while on-base.
Basically we have an OF of four players, all with question marks. My guess is two step and outperform expectations, one kinda meets expectations and one disappoints. I like that we have some youth and potential out there....with flexibility to add in-season should the four prove to inadequate as a group. I hope they surprise and by mid-season we're not speculating on who the Rangers will try to acquire
Joey Butler could have a good spring and potentially work his way into the roster.
I want him to be an absolute all star every year just to pee the Castro boys off...
I say bring on to MLB, L.Martin, E.Beltre and J.Profar and see what these five tool rookies can do this year.
Engel isn't ready IMO but I tend to think well get about 15-20 hr from Martin
I predict Wash runs Gentry out there more often than not. I think he trusts him more and knows Gentry is willing to sacrifce stats for the larger cause of winning ball games. I don't know if you could say the same for Martin. I hate to say it but I think Martin is Julio Borbon part 2. He certainly has more potential than Borbon but still, I just have a feeling he's going to be a bust. His stats tell me he can't handle the pressure. He thrives in the minors and nose dives when he's called up. Now, if by May/june it's obvious this team isn't going to do anything special, and Wash lets him play every day, then maybe you'll see him rise up and meet expectations... but if there's a glimmer of hope, Wash will stick Gentry out there and Martin will ride the pine. I hope I'm wrong...
Quick question; at what point does Michael Bourne tell Scott Boras that he better find him a team ASAP, and Boras gives in and lets Bourne sign a 1 yr deal in a hitter friendly ballpark on a contending team? We are what, 3 weeks away from everyone reporting to ST? Bourne has to be getting antsy. I say JD throws a 1 yr $14M deal at him to see if he bites. Maybe, just maybe, Boras is smart enough to realize Bourne's best chance to cash in big NEXT offseason is after spending 2013 with the Rangers where he'd instantly be the starting centerfielder and leadoff hitter. There would be no competition ifor him in those 2 areas and he probably makes the Rangers a good enough team to receive the national exposure to cash in big in 2014. I've made it well known on here that I'm in favor of signing Bourne... and I'm beginning to think it might just happen, especially if Cruz gets suspended.
Pablo, he hasn't really been given a chance when called up. He's shown the ability to lace a double into the gap in MLB. He's had a whopping 60 major league plate appearances.
Oh my Borbon v. Martin? It's a One Eighty difference. Martin drives the ball and hits the alleys often.I'm almost looking forward to a Cruz suspension, only because I'd like to see him off the field as a reg.The FO should have approached Nelson's departure from TR much much sooner. Bring on more youth.
E. Beltre and L. Martin are both waiting for thier heads to catch up with thier body tools. Get ready for a show.
I'm not one to say "See guys? We should have attained Justin Upton," but, yeah, pretty much. You see how convoluted our OF picture looks assuming Nelson Cruz gets suspended. Murphy is a super-4th OF; Martin and Gentry are both platoon guys; Borbon and Beltre are meh; Joey Butler is whack.
We're basically resigned to the idea that 3 platoon outfielders will all be starters.
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