What is your opinion of the A.J. Pierzynski signing?
MJH on accountability
Let's be positive guys, the off season hasn't been a total disaster:
*Berkman is at bare minimum a +2 WAR improvement over PADMY, assuming he can stay healthy. Reasonably, he has the upside to be +5 WAR vs FACE last year.
*Moreland should improve over at 1B. Or at the very least can still hit 15 or 20 500-ft bombs off righties. Hopefully he stays healthy this year and Wash gives him a chance to hit lefties. Also, he takes pitches makes the pitcher work to get him out.
*AJ 75% / Soto 25% at Catcher should be better than Soto/Yorvit/Napoli's hip tandem we had last year.
*Second half Yu over the course of a full season has the potential to be a Cy Young winner while leading MLB in Strikeouts.
*PADMY will no longer play any games at 3B, SS, 2B, or 1B. That should save us some runs/errors defensively.
*Colby Lewis should be back mid year, and should really bolster our rotation. Keep in mind how many injuries we had to our pitching staff last year. Hopefully Neftali can come back and contribute to the bullpen to end the year.
*Holland has recovered fully from that stomach bug he had which caused him to drop 15 lbs in a matter of days, and should have regained his lost velocity, which should help him a lot. Joey actually wrote a good article on this last year.
*I know everyone says Hamilton being gone will hurt us, and maybe it will overall, but I don't think anyone can argue that June/July/Aug/September Hamilton being gone will hurt us too much, especially when you factor in the + Defense and Speed we'll get out of Gentry/Martin. Also, from what we have been reading Martin seems to be doing very well so far. To be honest, in the wild-card play-in game, seeing Hamilton go 0/4 while swinging at like 5 total pitches is not something I will miss.
*Kinsler should bounce back considering he played injured for most of the year.
*Cruz should bounce back a bit.
*Profar/Olt are waiting to be called up mid-year and should be a positive for the Rangers this year. In the case of Profar, on the field. In the case of Olt, probably via trade.
*Perez is a year older and should improve, though I wouldn't mind him seasoning a bit more in AAA. Keep in mind how young he really is.
*Beltre played the last 2 months of the year in so much pain he could barely function and couldn't play 3B some days. Even if he regresses a bit, a healthy Beltre still should, at worst, put up reasonably close to the same level of production.
* Financially, the Rangers are in the best position they've ever been, and have something like $40-$50 million dropping off the payroll after this season, at the same time the new TV contracts start to kick in.
Less is More sometimes
...unless you're still using someone else's sig.
I hope you're not married. You wife would have to be a real douche to stay around you.
I'm not seeing this $40-50m payroll drop.
Ones I can think of dropping off are Nelson Cruz ($10.75 million I believe), Pierzynski (7.5 million), Soto ($3 million), Berkman ($11 million), Nathan ($7 million). That doesn't count for any increases through aribitration eligible players and other players under contract naturally increasing. That's about $39 million there.
You're forgetting the $10 million or so of MY's salary they are paying this year.
they'll have to replace most of that payroll, with guys not on the farm, but I see all of those things as legit reasons for optimism...
Payroll numbers http://www.baseball-reference.com/teams/TEX/2012-roster.shtml
Davis driggle: SHHHH! Yourwife said to behave!
Optimism is good. I agree with everything you said. THe only thing that worries me about the Rangers as constructed is the offense. I think the starting pitching will be good to very good. The bullpen has the chance to be good. We will see how it all unfolds and I am excited and anxious to see how it all plays out.
*The Rangers have all the pieces to acquire Price/Felix/Stanton if/when they become available.
@Pitch: I'm not sure that list includes salaries/commitments to players not on the roster, such as PADMY.
It doesn't, BZ, although some are noted below, like the additional capital in the Young deal and the buyout of Feldman's option.
I'm not at all concerned. In fact, I'm happy with the Rangers situation:
1. Have not given out any constricting, long-term contracts to meh players (Anibel Sanchez, et al) or guys who will be long beyond their primes at the end of the contract (Hamilton, et al).
2. Have not surrendered ANY prospects, thus giving them maximum flexibility to replace current players / initiate trades
3. Have young players ready to assume significant roles in 2013
I am disappointed Olt hasn't been moved yet as he is 24 years old, his plus defense at 3B is negated if he's not playing there and there's virtually no chance he'll spend a lot of time there in 2013. I'm fine with Profar starting at AAA and even spending an entire year there.
I expect Yu to provide at least good #2 SP and potentially to be Cy Young caliber. Harrison should give solid #3 production. Holland is a good #3 / #4. Ogando is a question, will be interesting.....I could see anywhere from solid #3 production to be relegated back to the bullpen.
Overall there are a lot of arms (again) meaning that if Ogando falters or someone gets injured there are a lot of options for how to fill that spot. This is an enviable position to be in. Just ask the Angels...who have three retreads on their starting staff and absolutely no one in the minors to ready to step in.
Bottom line: I don't like big FA contracts to nominal talents. I do like giving youngsters an opportunity to contribute (something that was missing in 2012). I also like trades for SUPERSTAR talent. The Rangers are still in position to make big things happen.
Look at it from a position to position basis and you can present reasonable arguments for each position improving next year.
The key players are going to be Ogando (he needs to hit the ground running), Perez (he needs to be a reliable #4 this year) and Martin (it's his time). Also Holland, but it's always Holland's time to step up so I figure it should be implied.
If they all can step up we'll be a much better team next year.
I really don't want to move Ross to the rotation (he was sooo good for the first half of the season) and I don't have faith in Grimm yet. But purely from a WARP perspective it's not a big stretch to assume we're going to be a better team.
Plus there are fewer opportunities for Wash to screw things up.
@Chuck I am a little more worried about the starting pitching than you are. I do think Yu will be very good this year. However, I think Harrison will not be quite as good as last year and I haven't seen anything to make me believe Dutch will turn into something better than he has been. I think he will be good, but not great. After those three, though, I get more worried. Ogando did have a good year as a starter, but tailed off in the second half of that season. That probably was in part fatigue, but also was probably in part teams catching on to his pitches. They have seen him quite a bit at this point, so I don't expect Ogando to have a particularly strong year as a starter. Likewise, I don't expect the #5, whoever that may be, to have all that strong a year. Hopefully, Colby will come back and bolster the rotation during the season. At the same time, though, who knows if we be the Colby we have grown to love. It is tough coming back from an injury. Overall, i would expect an above average, but not good to very good, year out of our starting rotation.
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