not that eric... you're right.. in reading back i overstated... i said most likely hall of famer... should have written borderline... and there is no question, a justifiable case can be made on his part...

I'm actually really excited to watch the Rangers this year. Almost more so than the last couple when I knew we would be competitive. Why? It's a transition year and nobody knows what is going to happen. You can take a guess at the Ranger's record all you want but who can really predict that? (Unless god personally told Josh that we would suck and thats why he left). Hell, even if the Rangers miss the playoffs, we will get to see just how good our "elite" farm system really is. Perez finally has a chance to establish himself as a major league pitcher. He's still very young give him a shot. I'd rather have a guy with high potential as our fifth starter than most 5's on other teams. Same with Martin. He destroyed AAA. I don't expect the same numbers, but with consistent PA's he could easily be worth his salary.

Also, I don't understand how its even a legitimate argument that losing Josh, Napoli, and Young from a team that barely made the playoffs will cause the Ranger's to lose more games. Anyone who watched the Rangers all season knows that the second half collapse (Due to horrendously streaky hitting) falls largely on the shoulders of these three players. Kinsler and Cruz also were terrible last year and I just don't see them playing that bad again this season.

I don't know if this team will make the playoffs but I think we will definitely be in the thick of it. All I know is that I can't wait for the season to start. Oh and hopefully we get a David Price injection similar to the Cliff Lee trade at the deadline.

Umm I agree that berk will be hof. 10 90 walk seasons out of 11 is it? Yes please. That guy is the ops machine. Dude walks more than he ks

To back it up a bit more 146 career wrc is 11th best 1b all time. Career 955 ops. Short career and under appreciated stats like 2bs and bbs may hurt him. Let's see how bbia treats the puma

I'd like to edit posts but I don't see how. I Agree berk *should be* hof, not that he will be

I'm actually really excited to watch the Rangers this year. Almost more so than the last couple when I knew we would be competitive. Why? It's a transition year and nobody knows what is going to happen. You can take a guess at the Ranger's record all you want but who can really predict that? (Unless god personally told Josh that we would suck and thats why he left). Hell, even if the Rangers miss the playoffs, we will get to see just how good our "elite" farm system really is. Perez finally has a chance to establish himself as a major league pitcher. He's still very young give him a shot. I'd rather have a guy with high potential as our fifth starter than most 5's on other teams. Same with Martin. He destroyed AAA. I don't expect the same numbers, but with consistent PA's he could easily be worth his salary.

Also, I don't understand how its even a legitimate argument that losing Josh, Napoli, and Young from a team that barely made the playoffs will cause the Ranger's to lose more games. Anyone who watched the Rangers all season knows that the second half collapse (Due to horrendously streaky hitting) falls largely on the shoulders of these three players. Kinsler and Cruz also were terrible last year and I just don't see them playing that bad again this season.

I don't know if this team will make the playoffs but I think we will definitely be in the thick of it. All I know is that I can't wait for the season to start. Oh and hopefully we get a David Price injection similar to the Cliff Lee trade at the deadline.

This.

At the end of the day, rather we Won/Lost this post season comes down to perception. The truth is it won't be determined until September.

Since there is no baseball to play, we want to see big headlines in personnel moves. Texas and LAA won last offseason, but watched the (real) postseason from home. Tampa Bay has been losing off seasons for the last several years, and OAK and DET lost last offseason.

It comes down to performance. If Cruz can put together a consistant season at the plate, Berkman somewhat returns to past glory, and a young pitcher can stand adequately in the 5th rotation spot for a few months then we could have a 95 win-team, and we will look back on this off season as JD brilliantly navigating through overloaded and uncessary contracts.

Then again, he might be a chump. But at least we dont have Bobblin' Josh Hamilton on our payroll for the next six years.

@Ken I agree with what your general point is, the big offseason money ballclubs did not make the post season. Games are not won in January. TB competes every year in a big money spending AL East. Oak did it last year in the AL West. I do not think DET belongs in this low spending class though. They did pay big for a Prince. This year there is a good chance TB and TOR will finish above the Bombers.

The only reason JD has not traded Elvis is that he believes he can get more at the trade deadline. Thus Rangers hopes of a post season should be done by July.

Price and Stanton are a pipe dream. This FO is never going to "overpay" to get either and someone else always will leaving rangers out in the cold like the last two off seasons.

The overpay for fielder seems like its working out for Detroit. What did he get 6yrs? Detroit probably gets three WS appearances. I'd take that. Beltre was a last minute deal that everyone thought "whoa Borus magic again what a overpay". He's turned out to be our MVP. Sometimes you have to go after that piece. Lets hope beltre doesn't demand a trade now that JD is saying the team is set. When four weeks ago he had to calm ranger players down by saying the moves weren't done yet. This team would get better. Now what is he going to tell them. He's banking on someone out there that will do a TEx type deal again for Elvis.

This going to be a long season.

"If you would not give a former MVP, HR champ, arguably the greatest hitter in the game right now (as well as the biggest head case in the game) $25 mil per season, who will you give it to?"

Key word there being FORMER. The Rangers got 21 WAR out of Hamilton in his 27-31 years. Highly doubtful the Angels will get that out of his 32-36 years. Paying old guys for past performance is a losing formula. So you ask....who will the Rangers give that money to?

They've already answered that. They used that kind of money to sign a 25 year pitcher with the potential to dominate throughout his prime years. They gave it to Adrian Beltre in a move that seemed to be paying for past performance but has (so far) proven to be the best free agent signing of the last several years. They also paid Kinsler big money and have given Harrison and Holland significant contracts. They also offered Cliff Lee a brinks truck full of money.

I think there's two trends here.....

1. Sign players entering their prime less-than-free-agent money to lock them up during their prime
2. Sign proven superstar-capable players who can are less likely to fall off a performance cliff

I don't believe Greinke is a legit superstar and Hamilton is a timebomb waiting to go off. So neither made sense from Ranger's perspective.

I'm sticking with the Django argument that for the right uh..."person" we should be willing to overpay.

"Right now, we're an 87-win, second place team."

*Slaps forehead*

Silly me! Here I was looking forward to the 2013 season and all the possibilities it offers when the outcome has already been determined! I should have just asked Eric how many wins the Rangers will have.

I should have checked with Eric before the final week of the season last year and saved myself some aggravation. Or better yet, turned the television off after the top of the 9th inning in that infamous game 6.

Eric, with your absolute certainty regarding the future, why aren't you famous for your prognostications? Or at least rich and living on some desert island? I would think such clairvoyance would prove an invaluable commodity that could be leveraged into just about anything imaginable?

Why didn't you stop the World Trade Center attacks? Were your powers not fully developed? Are they limited to the realm of baseball? Or are they even more limited.....to only the Rangers?

Perhaps I've overestimated your skills...and you can only tell the future with certainty in very rare cases. Still.....if you know what 2013 holds I'm sure you've at least wagered some money at the Vegas sports books to convert this incontrovertible knowledge into some easy riches.

Anything else you care to share with us mortals who have to wait out the entirety of a 162 game season before knowing the outcome?

MrMan,

Your post made me smile. Thank you for that.

And, you know, I didn't invent math, but I don't hesitate to apply it. Sans everyone we lost (12.0 WAR from a 93-win team), I saw us at 81 wins. The additions of Soria, Pierzynski, Frasor and Berkman, were shrewd from a fiscal perspective, but I still think we're one major bat (or arm, I guess) from being a 92+ win team. I'm simply looking at this from a WAR perspective, and ZIPS tends to agree with me. 87-88 wins is not enough to win the West, in my opinion.

I don't mind this offseason. I'm happy with much of the money we didn't spend. However, I will remain critical of the front office's failure to acquire Justin Upton, and of not trading Elvis Andrus. I've been staunch about this since last July. So from that standpoint, I'm disappointed, and I believe it will be the difference between winning the division and playing in the Wild Card do-or-die game.

Do you have an argument that says we're better than I'm projecting? Or is it just going to be another one of those "We have to play the games" bits?

If Trout gets injured for 3 months, 88 wins might be enough. Really though, it's probably not.

I tend to agree with eric, that we're really about 1 key piece from being at least co-favorites (with the Angels). Short of that, it seems obvious to project a 2nd place finish. Or possibly 3rd, if the A's continue to surprise everyone. Obviously this is far from certain; remember the A's in 2012? But it's as good a prediction as we have now, and given that, it makes sense to consider adding that last piece to give us the best chance of being competitive.

I don't know why they play the games. Just ask Eric and he will tell you how many wins each team will have.

I'm not going to label the offseason a loss, but I do agree with Eric, that if it was up to me (heaven forbid) I would have been very happy to do an Elvis for Upton deal. If they had been able to do it early, maybe they would still have signed Berkman and have been able to turn Cruz into a young prospect....

I hope that JD can turn Elvis into something better than Upton, but I, like Eric, probably would have done that deal.. Upton fits into the type of players we want to acquire: really talented, young and relatively speaking, inexpensive... maybe JD overplayed his hand.... we won't ever know the whole story...

All I know, is that good trades, or bad... good signings or not.... great prospects, or overrated... the Rangers are a top flight organization that has gotten to the playoffs in 3 straight seasons... to the world series twice... we continue to generally make shrewd, wise baseball and financial decisions... this team is built to be a contender for a long time...

this team is in a transition year... not so much from good to bad team, but generally from older to younger... let's see if the kids can produce... it should be a whole lot more fun, than watching the vets look old, injured and entitled as they did at the end of last season...

"Do you have an argument that says we're better than I'm projecting? Or is it just going to be another one of those "We have to play the games" bits?'

Eric, I don't disagree with your logic at all. I also would have liked a couple more developments (I'm more aggrieved that Olt hasn't been moved than Elvis. I think Elvis can play another year in Texas and Profar can remain in the minors...after all, he's only 20 years old). Definitely not a perfect off-season.

But I don't trust your projections...or anyone else's. There's just no way to project these things. If you want to call that a "we have to play the games bit" then so be it.

But NO ONE projected the A's and Orioles to win 90+ games while Angels finished 3rd. All it takes is a couple things to WILDLY change your projections. What if Yu blows his arm out the first month of the season? What if Berkman is no better than last year. Suddenly this is a 75 win team and none of your WAR-based projections really have any meaning.

Events that occur during a season play a much bigger role in final win totals that past WAR performance. If this weren't true then projected team win totals would be reasonably reliable...when in fact they're totally unreliable.

So yes, if you want to say "The Rangers have a WAR-based projection of 87 wins which likely leaves them in 2nd place" I'll accept that. But to say they "are an 87-win" team leaves me making posts like the one above.

too much griping in this thread. this team is fine. just play ball.

MrMan writes: But NO ONE projected the A's and Orioles to win 90+ games while Angels finished 3rd. All it takes is a couple things to WILDLY change your projections. What if Yu blows his arm out the first month of the season? What if Berkman is no better than last year. Suddenly this is a 75 win team and none of your WAR-based projections really have any meaning.

This is totally true. But at the same time, Oakland and Baltimore got extremely lucky in 2012. I don't think anyone here can deny that. Their records in one-run games and extra inning affairs are completely unsustainable, so it will be fun to watch the pundits on ESPN and MLBN saying they've taken a step back when, in reality, they are performing exactly as they were supposed to.

And sure, if Yu blows his arm out, the complexion of 2013 will look differently. The WAR-based projection would then be altered (likely minus 5-6 wins). As for Berkman, I can't get behind the idea that last year had a "bad" 2012; he only played in 30 or so games.

I guess what I'm trying to say is, even though I'm sure many on here take it like I'm pulling these projections (or valuations) out of my ass, I'm really not. RFan recently mentioned the BETA on this team being very high. We could easily win 90+ games, and we could also easily be a .500 team. Based on Berkman, Pierzynski, Kinsler, Cruz, Holland, Ogando, Colby Lewis, the bullpen, Soria, Martin, Gentry -- this team could be excellent.

But we are living with very few constants in 2013. Yu Darvish, Matt Harrison, Joe Nathan and Elvis Andrus are basically the only ones I can think of. We reasonably know to expect good seasons from all of them. But other than that, this team could go in a number of different directions. My brain tells me about 50% work out and have great years, and 50% don't. That's 87 wins to me.

I'm just happy to see a new hitting coach here, especially a Boston coach. Everything we have received from Boston the past few years have really panned out. Thanks Massholes.

"But we are living with very few constants in 2013. Yu Darvish, Matt Harrison, Joe Nathan and Elvis Andrus are basically the only ones I can think of. We reasonably know to expect good seasons from all of them. But other than that, this team could go in a number of different directions. My brain tells me about 50% work out and have great years, and 50% don't. That's 87 wins to me."

Agreed. And it it the lack of constants that makes any forecast specious. I have no idea what is going to happen. It's very possible this team used up its bad luck gremlins last year and this year Darvish is 2000 version of Pedro Martinez, Kinsler combines his power from 2011 with his 2008 OBP and his 2009 SB totals. Nelson Cruz has a typical contract-driven career year, Lance Berkman recreates 2010, Matt Harrison and Holland put up their best season, Adrian Beltre's fountain of youth act continues, Leonys proves a phenom, Murphy somehow learns how to hit righties, etc.

I'm pretty damn excited. I like the youth present. I like the opportunity for new leadership. I like the potential to add talent in-season. I'm also VERY curious to see how Ron Washington acts in 2013 considering the serious deterioration in perception / support of him. How he reacts should prove whether he's an eventually forgettable name or a guy who will remain with the Rangers / in the big leagues for years to come.

Am seriously tired of the off-season and ready for some baseball. April 2nd cannot come fast enough :(

To hell with the season. Eric says we win 87

March 31st... game's been moved up to open the ML Season. Go, 'Stros! Go, Rangers!!!

Hmmm... guess that's a bit conflicting.

Ignoring the haters that keep attacking posters, I'm really looking forward to this season. My prediction: 100 wins.

Don't know if that'll carry us through to the World Series - got a couple of serie before that, but, hey... all you gotta do is GET to the tourney... that's when your chances start.

Yeah, this season has already been diced and sliced and decided by the has been drips under pressure here. (AKA Ex Spurts) Lets hone in on 2014 now as there is no need to play 2013.

Whenever I see WAR printed out on paper I use it for asswipe. Same for won-loss projections.