@TB

Rangers are in the top four to win the entire American League according to Vegas. With 19 games against the Astros this season, they'll probably win over 90 games. The AL East will beat up on itself, the central is basically a one team race, and do we really think the A's are gonna win 96 games again?

Too many presumptive statements. Assuming we're a 90+ win team because Houston is in our division? We've outclassed the Astros for a number of years now, but it doesn't keep us from beating them 3 or 4 out of every six -- with a better run differential. Even if we do play them 19 times, it does not mean we're going to win, say, 14 or 15 of those games. The Rangers were the best team in the West in 2012, and went 27-30 against our own division.

@Champ

Lots of fluff, and then this: This team is certainly a playoff team.

Certainly? We've got an unproven CF platoon, regression coming from our left fielder, who knows what's coming from our right fielder, a replacement-level first baseman, and no 5th starter. How is Derek Holland going to perform? Can Alexi Ogando handle a full season in the rotation?

I'm not saying we're a bad team, and I'm not saying we don't have a fair shot at the postseason, maybe 35-40%, but to be cute and say we're "certainly" a playoff team is farfetched.

@Cosmo

With the Berkman signing Cruz will not be a DH so replacing Cruz with Upton might be a ne wash in terms of WAR because you have to subtract Cruz while adding Upton.

I have been saying this for a couple of weeks. Towers wants too much for Upton especially considering how little an upgrade he would be compared to signing a part time right-hand COF with a little pop and a good glove.

It the the Rangers are going to trade away the cream of the farm system they need to go for Stanton. Paying the price the Snakes want for Upton would be a bad trade.

Completely disagree with your assessment of Justin Upton. I mean, I'm not calling you stupid or anything, but how would adding a 4 WAR playing like Upton be a wash if he was replacing the 2 WAR Nelson Cruz? That doesn't make sense. It adds two wins; you're not subtracting anything.

Also, to acquire Upton does not mean "[trading] away the cream of the farm." Martin Perez is a MORP; Mike Olt is a solid complementary player. All the cream is in single-A, and Jurickson Profar, of course. If Towers is hell-bent on getting a Seattle-like package, then Justin Upton will be on the Diamondbacks next year. It's as simple as that.

^

The first three stanzas should be in quotes, or italics, because they're Cosmo's words, not mine.

I'm not mad at the Rangers for not upping the offer Rosenthal and Grant said they made. That seems like it should be more than enough for 3 years of Upton, when you consider his salary, which is not insignificant.

Can't wait to find out what the Braves are giving up for him.

Eric,
No one cares. No one reads your posts anyway.

Andy, 3 years and $38.5 million is cheap for a 4+ WAR outfielder.

It's not bad at all, but I don't expect to get more than $20-25m surplus value out of his contract in 3 years. The guys in the package we would have sent Arizona could easily eclipse that over the course of their respective controlled years. Not a sure thing, but it seemed like enough to me.

Failure to get Upton was a BLESSING. Thank you jesus!

Not signing Upton is a substantial failure by the FO. The team clearly bet on acquiring Upton and failed to close the deal. Now it must live with an average outfield, a backed up infield pipeline, and the loss of Andrus after 2014. JD had the opportunity to trade Elvis and rejected it. This was a mistake. In fact it is such a glaring mistake it makes me wonder: did ownership dictate retaining Elvis or has JDs successes made him believe he could finesse an Upton deal versus the competition. Neither speculation is good, but the former can be a continuing problem--more Oswalt type trades with no one to make it stop--whereas hopefully JD can see his mistakes and correct them in the future.

Towers certainly ends up looking like a dunce, down to making his African vacation the trade deadline. As aggravating as dealing with Towers must be, dealing with GMs like Towers is an essential skill set. The As, CLE, OAK, and now ATL have profited greatly from dealing with Towers; JD did not.

The Rangers must take chances to compete with LAA and to field a playoff winning team. It has played safe with Elvis, and so far failed to achieve its two primary objectives, a TORP and a power hitting outfielder. So far the team is 0-4 (Greinke, Hamilton, Shields, and Upton).

Towers did okay: Prado, Delgado, Ahmed, Spruill and Drury. The Diamondbacks also sent the Braves Chris Johnson to take over for Chipper. The trade is not as good as the Mariner package, but what would the Rangers offer had to be to get Upton? Marcum signs with the Mets. The Rangers really never meaningfully got back in touch with the Diamondbacks after the Mariner proposal. Beginning to view that aside for Bourn and/or Lohse being signed, or another Nate Robertson type signing, the Rangers Winter readjustments are done and they are headed to Surprise with what they have now. Do not wish anybody ill, but here is hoping Furcal can not go in 2013 [ contrary to all indications] and the Cardinals view the absolute need to get Andrus to make it back to the playoffs.

If we end up trading Profar+ for Price or Stanton and signing Elvis long-term...I would disagree. There's still a ton of flexibility moving forward. Having arguably the #1 prospect loaded in your gun for trades isn't a bad thing. We could still net a top return for Elvis and flip a package for Price or Stanton. We're fine.

Completely agree with the Furcal injury Les. Even if we do sound like assholes for saying it...

It really just feels like Towers decided that anything coming from the Rangers had to include Elvis or Profar. the Rangers said no and he went and took lesser offers from other people then what we offered. I'm sorry but when someone is acting irrationally its hard to say you should humor them. Would you have traded Elvis alone for the package from the Braves? I don't think I would have.

"Would you have traded Elvis alone for the package from the Braves? I don't think I would have."

I wouldn't have wanted to trade them straight up, but I couldn't blame the Rangers if they had. It wouldn't have been a lopsided trade, just like him for Upton wouldn't have been. Of course, I'm not sure what we'd have done with Prado. Move Cruz or Murphy? Surely not move Beltre...

JKolar, no I would not take the ATL package for Elvis, but this package was tailored for AZ, especially Prado playing third base, Delgado so Towers can believe he was approaching the M's pitching offers, and Ahmed to satisfy Towers' penchant for collecting no better than average MIFs. AZ hosed themselves. Prado has only 2013 under control, Delgado is no better than mediocre. It is hard to evaluate the other prospects, but from what I've seen none of them are ranked very high.

Apparently AZ values 1 year of Prado over several years of low contract costs for Olt; they prefer Delgado over Perez, etc.

What I think is irrelevant. What matters is that JD bet heavily on getting Upton and lost.

What evidence do you have that JD was "heavily" betting on getting Upton?

From a potential, high upside talent perspective, the Mariners offer was 2 X's what they got from the Braves. The DBacks are a joke and will live to regret this lopsided deal.

Now that Upton's gone let's start trade scenarios involving Giancarlo Stanton. I would have absolutely no probl;em trading Profar, Olt, Perez, and , another high end prospect (i.e. Joey Gallo).
This goes without saying but Stanton is the one guy that can more than compensate for the loss of Hamilton. He would become The Face and if he stays healthy, he could hit 50+ HRs every year. Just break down his 2012 numbers. Half of his games were in a pitcher's park and he had absolutely nothing around him. There was no lineup protection, unless you're going to say Hanley Ramirez but c'mon, that guys done.. He could be the difference in us not only winning the AL West, but alsowinning the World Series.
He did have knee surgery last year, so his med records would have to be heavillly scrutinized, but he came back strong and I don't think his surgery was much more than it just being cleaned up.

He would LOVE to play here and he seems like a pretty good dude (at least on Showtime) in the clubhouse.
Giving up Profar and Olt would hurt... but it's going to take several blue chippers to get it done... and we're not talking about some guy in his 30's. Stanton is only 24 or 25... he's a pup that hasn't even reached his prime..

Here's the ultimate question; could the Rangers make the most attractive offer? Are there any other teams that have (nearly) can't miss prospects that could fill in the left side of the infield for the next 5-10 years? Also, are there teams willing to trade a highly regarded, 22 yr old, LHP prospect that could slide right into the rotation from day 1?
I would be willing to throw in Moreland (OR... not AND) Martin too, whatever it takes to get it done.

I don't think many teams have uber prospects at 3B, SS, and a LHP plus an everyday starter in Moreland or a high upside CFer in Martin
I have no idea what value Gallo has but he looks alot like Stanton and you never know, by the time the Marlins are ready to compete, he might be a key piece to their future.

"let's start trade scenarios involving Giancarlo Stanton."

I think Upton is the only guy that we've discussed proposals for more than Stanton. We started this discussion months ago.

And I maintain that Gallo is too green to assign a value. There are plenty of other highly-regarded prospects in the Rangers' farm system that we have a better idea of how they will do.

I would also entertain just about any deal to obtain Stanton. I would probably make many of the proposed trades in which we would acquire him. So would the other 29 other teams. Even the Braves could probably find a spot for him.

I don't know what I was thinking an hour ago. This trade looks pretty lopsided actually. I would be quite disappointed if the Rangers had made this trade for Elvis.

Andy, my evidence is based on the numerous press reports claiming Texas has been in multiple discussions with AZ, beginning last July. Also, at the time of the winter meetings Upton discussions were almost the sole focus of the Rangers, again, as reported by the press. Soon after the meetings Texas tried to get Simmons to package for Upton. Last, prior to the M's attempted trade, Texas reportedly made another significant offer for Upton. I don't want to get into the semantics of my less than ideal choices if words, but Texas obviously spent a lot of time on this and came up short.

Not signing Greinke is a larger blunder. #realtalk

Question: Does anyone here actually think that Towers was willing to trade Upton straight up for Elvis and that JD decided not to do that?

Agree with primi on this one. Failing to obtain Justin Upton is a failure by the front office, and as I'm critical now, it will only escalate once Justin Upton is a 4.0-5.0 fWAR outfielder for ATL over the next three years. We really missed out on a future MVP candidate, and we should have traded Elvis when we had the chance.

Again Eric you are wrong.

Eric, I'm curious. You've said 3y/$38.5M is "cheap for 4+ WAR outfielder" but that's arguably what you'd get from signing Michael Bourn, no? You were adament we give up Elvis for Upton, but you're also (apparently) completely opposed to giving up cash and a draft pick for Bourn. I know many others agree, but I'm curious as to your reasoning.