What is your opinion of the A.J. Pierzynski signing?
MJH on accountability
Chris Carpenter, the other one, was put on waivers by the Red Sox to clear space on the 40-man for Napoli. He can touch 100mph with his fastball, but location is another matter. Should the Rangers claim him, and if they did who would you put on waivers? Talk of signing Lohse keeps popping up. So help me Andy, Eric, Scooby, Tommy - if the Rangers do sign Lohse to a 1 year deal and keep him the whole year, are they then entitled to a #1 draft choice: if Lohse has a successful 2013 stays within the top 125, and is offered the $13.5 qualifying offer; but then signs elsewhere? If that is the case, then it could be seen as losing a 24th choice in 2013 but gaining a 33rd + choice in 2014. An issue arises with loss of slot money, but the Rangers would be drafting in the 31st slot and have trended to signing high school players with a risk but high upside, but at a far lower bonus then if they were drafting Mark Appel, for example. So with that as back thought, should the Rangers sign Lohse to a 1-year deal or view Lohse as another Dempster, a NL pitcher who will not transfer over to the AL with as much success as the last two years??
I think Lohse would be better in the AL than Dempster, but I still wouldn't take him. You asked about a million questions in this block of text, so I don't really know where to start or finish.
Basically, if the Rangers feel Lohse -- at however cheap they could acquire him -- would be worth giving up their #1 draft pick, they'll do it without question. I know people are pretty leery of giving draft picks away, but it's really not a big deal if the FA (at a below market price) outweighs the loss of the pick. I'm under the impression the only way the Rangers would get Lohse would be if they got him on a one-year deal, or a cheap two-year deal. I'm talking in the 1/10 or 2/16-18 range, which I don't think will happen. Lohse wants 3 years and probably about $15 million AAV, so if he gets it, I hope it's the Angels giving it to him.
I would definitely grab Lohse in the unlikely event you could get him for one year, assuming you still retain flexibility for a mid-season deal for Felix, Price, or Upton, should any of that transpire. Draft picks are nice, but a first round in MLB isn't near as valuable as a first round in the NFL - especially with a young, high upside guy, you're talking years if ever develops, and the odds say he most likely won't,
should the Rangers [...] view Lohse as another Dempster
And signing him with the hope he repeats his 2012 in 2013 and convinces another team he can do it in 2014 for $13.5M is a bit of a reach at this point.
The problem with this idea is that you can't get the replacement draft pick without making a qualifying offer, which will probably be more like 15 than 13.5 by then. Lohse would then likely accept the offer, and you'd on the hook for 15m for your #5 starter.
I agree wtith RFFD1. I'm just not that concerned about the draft pick. The evaluation should be do you think Lohse can translate his success to the AL, in a hitter's park, and can you get him at a reasonable cost. If you think he can help you this year and the cost is not exorbitant, do it.
Whatever happened to Scoobi DUD??
Eric, the key question was: would the Rangers be entitled to a draft choice? If the scenario did happen, and he was ranked in the top 125 at the end of the season and received a qualifying offer, but without an intention to sign, aka how the Yanks dealt with Soriano. Any response on Carpenter? [ those were the only two questions, the rest were opinions upon those two] . Henchmen that is the risk, but not as much if the original scenario occurred, and Lohse had a very solid 2013. RFFD1 the original scenario was with a qualifying offer. Last year's was at $13.3m and currently is programed to rise to $13.5m.
As a team that got nothing tangible for two attempts with older NL pitchers last year alone( and a MONSTER flop with Park), I think the Rangers are just making polite noises. Lohse is a one year deal period, no qualifying offer would be madw nezt year because Ross for sure gets a shot next year if not this, Lewis and Feliz are back and we will have three more in the wings from the minors.
"he was ranked in the top 125 at the end of the season"
I don't know where you came up with this mantra of yours, but it's pure nonsense. There is no ranking of players in order to receive draft pick compensation. Getting that compensatory pick all hinges on whether you are willing to make a one-year qualifying offer (which this year was for 13.3M). The player has to decide before he is allowed to negotiate with any other team. If he says no, you'll get a pick when he signs.
Bottom line is very few pitchers can come to Arlington and increase their value. If teams aren't jumping to sign Loshe this year, what makes you think they would when he's a year older and undoubtedly has put up worse numbers?
2nd time poster.When was the first time you posted,Because im still looking for that bullshit. Internet troll gonna troll. Peace
I think one huge obstacle with Lohse is that the 1st round pick offers theoretical "surplus value" for your payroll, which from what I've read averages out to being worth somewhere between $5M and $7M. (Some picks won't pan out and will be worthless, but some will be worth lots of money.)
If we use $6M value just for illustrative purposes, if you sign Lohse for only one year, you have to recoup that $6M value all in one year. If he's worth $15M, you can only pay him $9M. But he won't accept such a discount, so with that reality, the only team where it makes sense for them to sign him for one year would be SL. But because of his age and the fact he's coming off a career year, Boras is going to be pushing for as much as as long as he can get, rather than settle for a one-year or discount deal.
Due to all that, Lohse's deal isn't going to be easy. In fact, if it lingers a while, maybe he becomes a sign-and-trade at some point? The closer we get to him staying unsigned on draft day in early June, where the pick goes away entirely, then it may become an option for a team to sidestep the compensatory pick by getting the Cards to sign-and-trade him for less than 1st-rounder value...and then it may make sense to have him.
But having a way to get him without a pick doesn't mean he'd be worth having in Texas, of course. Even coming off a career year, if he'd be a sucky #5 guy on a big contract, why bother?
Is DUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUDE really Scoobi Dud?
I have mixed feelings about Lohse. On the one hand, he'd likely be a #3-caliber pitcher, though it's possible he might fall short. I suppose there's a chance of him hitting #2, but I wouldn't hold my breath. If the Rangers signed him, they'd have 5 pitchers that are pretty likely to perform at #3 level or better. Most teams don't have that. I would feel pretty good about the rotation, especially with Colby possibly returning to form at roughly a #3 level.
On the other hand, he'll cost a draft pick and $$, and he seems unlikely to generate surplus value on what I assume will be a decent contract. I would assume he'll sign for $12-16m AAV. That means he'll have to put up a minimum of 3 WAR per year, which is certainly doable, but I wouldn't hold my breath. I can't help thinking his best days are behind at him, at age 34.
I guess I can't blame the Rangers for either signing him or not, although if they do sign him, I hope it's for a reasonable sum, though I fear they may overpay a bit, especially considering the draft pick issue.
Like I said, it wouldn't make sense to sign him for a boatload. $12-$16 million is a boatload for a fringe-#3 starter. If it made sense, a one-year deal worth $10 million or so would be cool. But even at that, it would bring our perceived $130 million budget over the level of comfortability, so Nelson Cruz would probably have to be moved.
Pro, you are not clearly understanding why the Rangers would make that qualifying offer, it is precisely to pull off a Cardinal or Yankee scenario. The Cardinals gave a qualifying offer to Lohse and the Yankees to Soriano for the sole purpose of getting a draft choice [ the 31st + etc.]. They had no intention of signing either player. The Yankees has stated exactly that, and banked on Boras being Boras. But I do tend to agree with Henchman. It is a huge gamble that Lohse can maintain his success in the AL. For every Beckett [ at least odd numbered years] and Nolan Ryan their is a Park, Eaton, Dempster [ it does seem like the Rangers do have their share]. David, before you call something 'pure nonsense' I would suggest you investigate more deeply what creates a draft eligible free agent. The new collective bargaining agreement abandoned the old A, B, C, D ratings, streamlining it to the top 16.7% [30 X 25 X 0.167 = 125.25, rounded to 125]. This correlates to the old A- class players system. The new agreement wanted to reduce the players that could gain a draft choice for the team that lost that player. Should I elaborate for you what the numbers mean I do not know, but I am relying on you Eric, Henchman and that is: after signing a player that you surrender your #1 draft choice for to a ONE YEAR DEAL. He stays at that level [a level that would otherwise qualify for draft compensation], and stays on that one signing team the whole year. Would that team be eligible to receive draft compensation after going through the qualifying offer. Or another way of saying it, can a player be a draft compensation free agent in two consecutive years. If so then Bourn and Lohse might be signed to one year deals, or Boras pulls off his magic, or both players are forced back to their original teams at major discounts or must both wait until the Rule-4 draft is over. The Yankees had already said no way are we signing Rafael and thank you thank you Nats. The Cardinals are hoping for that course, the Braves may give in and resign Bourn, unless they trade for Upton.
I take it that no one knows whether a player can be a draft compensation player in two consecutive years, and drop the subject. This situation will arise sometime in the future the way the new collective bargaining agreement is written, if in fact that is a reality. Lohse was not a great possibility in that factor, Bourn maybe. There has even been thoughts that Bourn would sign a one year deal so he can be a free agent for 2014, and could easily see Boras pushing for that under the belief next year would be better. He may even want an agreement that the signing team does not make a qualifying offer. Boras has done that in the past , Beltran is an example.. This would be especially true if he feels that draft compensation is holding his client back from a more lucrative contract. On the flip sign, a team may ask a free agent that qualifies to turn down a qualifying offer so that they can gain a draft choice, similar to what happened to Soriano by the Yankees, but in this case by design prior to signing that free agent in the first place. I can see this happening to David Price, and it is why he likely will be traded before such a situation commenced. Tampa Bay could be forced into the delicate position of needing to give a qualifying offer, but only if Price would turn it down simply because the Rays could not afford him but they wanted the draft choice. Fortunately, Price is already over $10 m, and will be traded before his free agent year at the end of the 2015 season.
Time to move on Les.
Les, sorry but when I call your posts about "being in the top 125" pure nonsense, it's because they are. Sorry to be so blunt, but you don't seem to be listening, so you leave me no choice.
Your latest explanation ("The new collective bargaining agreement abandoned the old A, B, C, D ratings, streamlining it to the top 16.7% [30 X 25 X 0.167 = 125.25, rounded to 125]. This correlates to the old A- class players system.") is more baloney. That wording, or even those concepts, appear nowhere in MLB's CBA. Don't know where you got all that, but it's pure BS.
Simply put, the entire "ratings system" has been completely abandoned in determining compensation. Period. It doesn't matter how well your player played the prior year or how his production compared. It all boils down to if you are willing to offer him the QO for the next season. For this off-season it was offer him $13.3M for one season, and if he declines you get a pick; if you don't offer it, you don't get a pick. Easy peazy, simple as pie.
The CBA does make reference to a top 125, but it isn't a reference to production or performance. Instead, it's a reference to "the 125 highest-paid Players each year." The link between that and the compensatory pick is that the appropriate Qualifying Offer is defined as "a one-year Uniform Player’s Contract for the next succeeding season with a guaranteed salary that is equal to the average salary of the 125 highest-paid Players each year (“Qualifying Offer”)." Those TOP 125 SALARIES are how the $13.3M figure was derived.
But in the entire CBA, there is no reference at all to the top 125 performers, or top 1/6, or 16.7%, or any such thing. The MLB office has left the player evaluating biz. Now it's up to the teams to determine if they feel the player is worth that QO, or not, and that's all the evaluating they feel they need.
The question ought to be: does Loshe put the extra 3-4 wins in the colum(over our rookies), to get the Rangers in the playoffs or the West Flag? I believe that answer is a strong, "yes".
Les "I take it that no one knows whether a player can be a draft compensation player in two consecutive years"
Of course a player could yield draft pick compensation two years in a row - or three or four or more, for that matter. It's not likely, but it's certainly theoretically possible. You're making it more complicated than it is.
Year 1 - If he's with a team from opening day and his team makes him a QO offer that he declines, he brings draft pick compensation. Year 2 - If he signs a one-year deal before opening day and his team makes him a QO offer that he declines, he brings draft pick compensation. Year 3 - If he signs a one-year deal before opening day and his team makes him a QO offer that he declines, he brings draft pick compensation. and so on
Obviously in that scenario of repeating one-year deals, each pick is predicated on a QO at the end of the season, and his value can become lessened at any time in a season where the team doesn't think he's worth putting that QO on the table.
Les "He may even want an agreement that the signing team does not make a qualifying offer."
Explicitly outlawed in the new CBA.
Yes. And I'm not sure how easy it would be to enforce, but I'm pretty sure it even outlaws "gentleman's agreements" regarding QOs.
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