http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/the-changing-caught-stealing-calculus-2/

FANTASTIC article on fangraphs today, regarding the risk/reward of the stolen base and caught stealing, Kinsler's ineptitude on the basepaths wasn't as awful as we would have expected, as compared across the MLB. Check it out and discuss.

But the Rangers are still in the group of teams that underperformed their SB success rate that would have allowed them to break even, right? Meaning they were a little too frisky on the basepaths to net a gain?

I'm not sure how to fix this, but this did make me remember that time Kinsler got picked off in the first inning of game 7 of the World Series. Wasn't that fun?

Remember in 2012 when Ian Kinsler was the worst base runner in the history of the universe and fans complained every time he got picked off?

Per Baseball Prospectus, he was the 5th-best base runner in the ML last year. Am I blowing your mind yet?

Right, they did perform below the break even, but they more among the more aggressive teams in the majors. This article I think shows that the ramifications of CS are not as negatively significant as would have been in prior years due to a baseball-wide reduction in big ball. They do have room to improve, and are certainly among the worse teams success-wise, butt heir aggression proves they are among the top teams in opportunities.

Tommy, BP's BRR stat is an aggregate stat, and Kinsler had a lot of opportunities to run the bases. It doesn't mean that he was a good base-stealer (0.14 runs contributed over the course of the season on stolen base attempts). In fact, the only others in the top 30 by BRR to contribute fewer runs per steal attempt were Jose Bautista, Howie Kendrick, Daniel Descalso, and Elvis Andrus.

He is the Rangers new MY. Just wait. God awful contract. We are stuck with him.

I bet you guys also thought keeping Napoli was a good idea. Lay off Kinsler. If stats told the whoke story with Romk at QB the cowboys would have at least 2 more superbowls.

Who is romk?

If you value WAR at around $5 million per win, all he has to do is crank out at least 3 wins a season in order to create surplus value. He hasn't been under that since 2007. Seems like a good deal to me. If he gets a Michael Young glove on him, move him to DH. Young's bat didn't slow down until his age 36 season, and we've Kinsler inked until his age 35 season.

On a tangentially related subject, I saw Ruben Amaro Jr. (Phillies GM) give an interview on Clubhouse Confidential the other day where he said Young is still a good infielder and just needs to be able to settle into one position in the field. What is he smoking?

I still think Kinsler's 2012 was indicative of a distracted player. And, I think he was trying to place himself within the parameters of a team with Elvis and Jurickson manning the infield and he never came up with a solution.

If he's focused, he doesn't get picked of at anywhere near that rate. If he's focused, he doesn't fumble all those chances in the field. If he's focused, he is a beast and Jurickson needs to find him somewhere else to play until the Elvis situation is settled.

...er... not another franchise, mind you... another position... I don't wanna lose this guy for anything.

A couple of months ago I computed MLB steal rates ( no HR factor like Fangraphs) and Texas lagged the MLB success rate by several percentage points. The real question is what happened to the Rangers' running game in 2012, as it was dramatically worse than 2011. Yes, there is a sample size issue, but Kinsler and Gentry were way off their 2011 success rates. Perhaps Kinsler had injury issues, but Gentry did not, and he regressed worse than Kins.

Something went badly wrong in 2012. Perhaps teams were stealing signals or getting tipped off by the runners. Or maybe they were asked to steal in less than ideal circumstances. Whatever the answer, this aspect of the offense declined badly. If the team intends to get more aggressive, it first needs to get a whole lot smarter.

Basic fundamentals were shelved. I saw a completely different non-aggressive team in 2012.
The manager never faced the reality, nor tried to fix or change the down spiral. In the face too.
Talk about driving the bus. Yeah, right into a 10gm deficit deep ditch. Ugh, what happened RW?
Not a clue...