http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2013/01/padres-pirates-rangers-interested-in-shaun-marcum.html

I seriously doubt this has any truth to it at all. If so Holland ans Marcum can have a home run competition. Just not the kind we like watching.

Just doesn't seem like the pitcher TEX would be interested in. They like guys that can throw harder than that.

86 and a fly ball pitcher.

The Rangers are looking for an economical 5th starter, in case they lose interest in Lohse. The best free agents still left is a short list: Bedard, Jurrjens, Marcum, Matsuzaka, Sanchez and Zambrano; with Vazquez and Webb pushing for returns after being out for a long stretch [more than a year]. Did a comparison based on : win% / h% / w% / k% / and probable salary and Marcum emerged as first choice, followed by Zambrano, then just behind the Zman Bedard and Jonathan Sanchez. Marcum's fastball took a dive in speed last year, why he is available and not back with the Brewers, but could be due to elbow problems. Bedard was unsuccessful with the Pirates last year, seems to only last long enough for 20 starts a season, but has had success in the AL, the Rangers years ago tried to acquire him from the Orioles as tr ACE. Matsuzaka was the Yu of 2007, would be a good sign as a #5, and still has all his pitches including the gyro.Sanchez is a lefty that had success with SF but bombed at KC last year, major control issues. The Z-man was the Cubs ACE, but also an ace issue of his tenure there, Guillen thought a lot of him, and he had a so so season in Miami last year. Ranking who the Rangers should sign as the #5 starter veteran free agent would be in my opinion: Marcum Bedard, Daisuke Matsuzaka, and if wiiling to take a $2 TO 4m salary Zambrano [he had worked himself up to $18-19m range by 2010, and took a big reduction to go to the Marlins last year, can he even go much lower]. All would be a good 1to2 year deal, and all in a comfortable age group [ 31 to 34 ].

It would make some sense on a 1 year deal as a depth guy because...well...we dont have any depth at all right now. i dont see much need for him past that.

I think I'd rather trade for one of the Dodgers' surplus starters than sign Marcum, unless they want a zillion dollars and Marcum wants peanuts.

I would take a low risk flier on Jair Jurrgens before I started trading.

Would sooner give Perez or Grimm the shot than take a flyer on Jair, though I wouldn't be opposed to a STI for him.

Well, I think that's what I suggested on Jurrgens. Grimm wasn't exactly stellar at AAA when he went to Round Rock, so I'm not sold on him. Perez, who knows about him, highly thought of at one time, but sure as heck didn't look too confident in Arlington last season.

What about Jurjuens? Do a Brandon Webb deal and hope he won't be Brandon Webb?

Just read Jurrjens is about to start throwing bullpens again.

Interest level in JJ and Marcum is meh.

In 2011 people would have opened the farm gates for Jair Jurrjens. Something was amiss in 2012 and he went from being an all star to non-tendered. Methinks some team will roll the dice on him, get his mechanics straightened out, and get at least 2 WAR and 180ip out of him for less than the $5mil he made last year.

I'd rather sign him or Chris Young than trade for any of the other meh options I've seen.

Considering the fact that Colby will be back up in June/July, it makes a lot more sense to me to have Ross/Perez/Grimm duke it out for the #5 spot if we lose out on Lohse. Brandon Webb two years ago wasn't very fun. Depth is good, but I have a hard time imagining that a more mature Perez/Ross/Grimm would give a performance as bad as the 5 spot last year.

...Perez/Ross/Grimm would give a performance as bad as the 5 spot last year

This would be a fair assessment if it weren't for the fact you also have to account for injuries. My hopes are one of those guys will show enough in spring training to win the job (Perez). The other (Grimm) probably gets the swingman role at this point, burning a year of control probably hampering his development somewhat. Ross was awesome in his role last year, but I have a hard time believing anyone inside the organization is giving him a legitimate chance of winning a starter job. He doesn't have a 3rd pitch, and his deception alone won't get him deep in to games. I don't view him as a viable candidate.

If you have an early injury to one of your big 4, how confident are you with Martin Perez & Justin Grimm getting 4-6 starts in two weeks?

Not at all comfortable, which is why I prefer signing Lohse as well as using Perez/Grimm to get Upton. If you do end up rolling the dice on those guys, I'd be more comfortable with that risk in April-June than I would in the summer, although Feliz did go down in May last year. So, yea, it's risky. Man, am I glad Scott Feldman is on the Cubs now.

Bill James has both Marcum and Lohse projected for a 3.63 ERA next year, but Lohse has a projected FIP that is 0.30 lower than Marcum's. I don't know much about the Cardinals' or Brewers' defensive numbers, but hopefully our defense can exaggerate that advantage. Also, Lohse's career GB rate is 3% lower than Marcum's which would play well in our ballpark, especially considering the quality of our infield.

I know it's Boras, but it looks like the market for Lohse isn't going to go past two years, which I would be fine with. I saw on FanGraphs the other day that Lohse had the 5th highest WPA among pitchers last year. Is that viewed as a statistic that is legit as far as determining value goes? Even if it is, I'm sure his numbers for last year are still kind of an outlier due to a really low BABIP.

I would take a 1 yr Marcum over a 3 yr Lohse, especially when Colby and Feliz will be "mid-season acquisitions". We hopefully will not only have the current staff as constructed now for next year, but also Feliz coming back full strength, which I think he can be good as a SP. And I bet Ogando, if he is still in the rotation, will be very consistent for 200 innings by 2014 and beyond. So would multiyear deal make sense for Lohse, while a 1yr Marcum deal may have some use, at least for 3 months when you replace him another 86mph fly ball pitcher.

Here is my question, right now we are talking about only a couple of wins to make the playoffs, would a Marcum upgrade for 3 months give you those 2-3 extra wins vs Perez/Grimm/Ross? If so, a 1 yr deal, and even if we trade him later could be the difference.

Man... this really has been a scary off-season. Actually, I think all this scariness started with the Soto and Dempster trades. I'm really hoping this is the smoke part of a smoke and mirrors illusion to a greater plan. However at this point, deep down, part of me knows that's not the case.

I saw that rumor when I woke up at 7 this morning. There is a reason this thread wasn't started until halfway through the day... (underwhelming and otherwise a waste of brainpower and consideration)

Henchman, you brought up an interesting name, Chris Young. He was involved in my opinion the worse trade in the history of the Rangers and JD's reign as GM. I even would buy into the fact that it effects every decision he has made since. After the 2005 season, Young who at the end of that season could be debate-ably had been the Rangers best starter, but was traded to the Padres for primarily Adam Eaton, but what made it bad were two points: [1] the Rangers through in a young first basman, Adrian Gonzalez and [2] by 2007, Young was pitching like an ACE with incredible numbers for that year. Unfortunately, he soon came down with shoulder problems, and since has never returned to that level. The Mets signed him in 201, then again in 2012 [where he got in 115 innings, 20 starts that went so so]. It would be a nice reunion of a 6'10" Dallas native, and probably would cost the Rangers but a $1 to 2m deal, except the Mets still have significant interest in re-signing him, and his shoulder problems appear to be chronic. But then the Rangers would not be asking for 30+ starts, but as a fill in until Colby was back, and a spot starter after that. However at his stage in his career, either Bedard or Marcum would be more viable, even if Bedard is almost a left handed reflection of Young in that it appears he can not get through a full season either. It is debatable if Marcum is at that same time and place in his career.

Isn't Marcum an extreme FB pitcher? Something like a 38-40%GB ratio?
Anyone know Lohse's GB%ratio offhand? SO%ratio?

Lohse's GB rate is around 40%. His K rate is about 5.5/9.

@eric
I think you made OUR point and neither of us wrote a long colum to explain.
Yes, sometimes less is more.