What is your opinion of the A.J. Pierzynski signing?
MJH on accountability
Saw this on the Rockies blog and thought I'd throw it out there. A bit of an interesting thought. I know I've seen a forum with Cargo vs. Stanton, but the comparables here seem more reasonable. The premise is trading Calos Gonzalez (Cargo) for young controllable arms.
"A deal with Texas could bring one high grade arm (Martin Perez) and other position players (Mike Olt or Leonys Martin) that could then be turned around individually to other teams [for pitching]."
So assume Mike Olt and Martin Perez as the base, for Cargo at 5 remaining years at around $11/per. His career average triple slash is .299/.355/.518/.874 with premiere OF defense.
This is juxtaposed to the Upton to Texas craze. Upton has an average slash of .278 /.357/.475/.832. He is controllable for 3 more years at around $8.5/per. Cheaper, but not as good.
Further, Cargo has generated a game more WAR in 5 seasons (13.9 vs. 13.1, respectively) than Upton in 6, to boot.
It seems like everyone is willing to trade some good chips for Upton, but how much more would it take to get Cargo, a better player by most metrics? Would Olt, Perez, and a B level prospect get it done? If so, isn't that the same trade people want for Upton?
See his Home/Road splits.
oh, dear god! Missed that before. That's one of the more out of balanced splits I think I've ever seen. well, eh...
even his LHP/RHP splits and day/night splits suck. So basically he rakes at Coors at night against RHP?
Also, Cargo's deal doesn't get really pricy until 2015 when he gets $16 mill, $17 mill, and $20 mill for that season and the years that follow. By that time Upton will be making $14.5 mill in the last year of his contract and we can cut ties if we see fit.
Personally, I'd rather take the financial flexibility Upton over Cargo allows and invest in a pitcher to go along with Upton for this next year.
Admittedly, I didn't dig too deep into the details. For all of these reasons, I agree he isn't the best option.
That being said, I still don't like Upton.
I dont like Upton either, at his cost. What I like is cheap, and i think, low risk.
I like Murphy, Gentry and Martin. I see Murphy as a 3 WAR and Gentry's defense as a 3 WAR and Gentry's offense as a 1 WAR for a total of 4. Martin is supposed to be almost as good defensively as Gentry, and I put him at 1.5 WAR defensively and 1 to 2 offensively. It is clear to me, that Martin's defense, alone, will be more than Cruz' total production. Borbon, who is also fast and very good against RHP (but not LHP) as a sub.
I think all of these players except Cruz have upside beyond that, and all, but Cruz, are very cheap and fast.
I like both guys. They'd both be excellent in our lineup. But let's not get the facts twisted; Upton is a better defensive player than Cargo, according to UZR. Over the last 4 years, Upton has a plus 18.8 UZR. In the same time frame, Carlos Gonzalez has been in the negative (-8.0). It's a fair comparison since they're both corner outfielders, but that's a 27 run swing between two guys in only 4 years.
Cargo is a little more expensive, but he's certainly cheap at the going rate of superstars. He's also more controllable than Upton.
I suspect the Olt/Perez/B prospect would probably be the cost of Justin Upton, assuming Elvis Andrus is unavailable. Gonzalez is controllable for an additional two years, which would likely up the package by two really good prospects.
@Goodasgold - When you say you don't like Upton and that you prefer cheap, are you talking about his salary or prospects? His salary is not out of line for a good MLB player. I think Upton is the ideal player that we need to round out the lineup.
@er - I think Olt, Perez, and one of our minor league infielders gets it done. Just have to decide if they want Garcia, Sardinas, or Odor. Sounds like they want pitching though, might make it Olt, Perez, and Grimm.....and I do that deal if I'm TEX.
Might be okay with that, NorthTex, but then, we have to evaluate our starter depth. Right now, the assumption is Perez is the 5th starter. If he's traded, we assume Grimm is the 5th starter. If he's traded, who's the 5th starter, at least until Colby comes back? Ross? This is an important question.
Check his home road splits. He has terrible home road splits. I don't want him he has terrible splits. The most ridiculous argument ever. First, Arlington is a hitters park so not something to be concerned with. Second, I'd venture to say at least 95% of players hit better at home than the road. Third, people used to express the same sentiment about Holliday when he played for Colorado before he went on to be an all-star in St. Louis. People are more comfortable home. That's why they hit better there. I bet every Ranger hitter had better home stats than road stats last year (regulars with a large enough sample size). I'm not going to look it up because I have better things to do, but please feel free to try and prove me wrong. There's a reason there's a homefield advantage.
Would you settle for signing Lohse or trading Cruz for pitching? I like Ross and think it's great that he has a ton of confidence, but I think the bullpen could use some extra help until Soria and Feliz show up.
Colt, other forum threads have discussed home field advantages and, yes, on a league wide basis players perform better at home. But CarGo's splits are extreme. Add this to his lackluster fielding plus contract obligations and he is not a good candidate for the Rangers. Upton is a much better option, as would be Bourn (who I do not advocate either).
Well I guess it's a good thing the Rangers aren't going to be acquiring CarGo or Bourn, and probably not Upton either
Keep in mind Gonzo plays half in road games in LA, SF, and SD guys, that is gonna skew anybody's road stats
Just my 2 cents - Home/Road splits get too much pub
I don't think home/road splits get any pub outside of fan forums. I don't think FO's think about them at all or no one would ever touch a Rockies player or a Rangers player. Thanks to saber metrics and moneyball everyone thinks of they look at stats they can figure out who is a good player, but never watching a player leaves a serious gap in player evaluation. There's a reason teams still have scouts, even Oakland does. There's some things the eye will tell you that even the most advanced saber metrics won't. Thank god for that too or so many of the games greatest players never would have made it, even the stars of today like Jose Bautista, Roy Halladay or Cliff lee just to name a few. Scouting is a process of integrating stats with the ability to actually see and evaluate a players skills.
Good point about having to play a lot of games in SD, LA and SF but Gonzo is a NL hitter and obviously a head case with his 'away baggage.' With his salary in years to come he probably would not cost a boat load of prospects to acquire, maybe? He and Cruz could hold hands and be the greatest streak hitters tandem in the AL.
I agree to an extent, colt.
SABR-metrics, or the correct application of the metrics, will tend to show that H/A splits don't necessarily reveal "true" talent like many people are prone to diagnose when quoting said splits. Hence, "Home/Away splits get too much pub" really means they don't really mean much to me. I'll take Cargo and/or Upton in this OF and be extremely happy with them (and don't care how much anyone points out their Away splits).
I agree with Tx. No one paid any attention to home/road splits until someone on here mentioned how bad Ian Kinsler is away from TBiA. Now it's kind of a trend for people to make cases against acquiring players, or for passing judgement about our own guys. Like most trends, it will likely phase itself out over time, because home/road splits are based on single-season samples. I think there's a chance Ian Kinsler or Justin Upton provide comparable production on the road as they do at home in 2013. Unlikely? Of course.
But Kins plays road games in SEA, LAA, OAK, and Upton goes to SF, LAD, SD. It's basic math how things work out.
No one pays attention to sabremetrics except for ggeks.
C'mon, kiddo. You're the equivalent of 2012 MY of trolldom.
Seriously Txball what do you have to offer? One might compare you the Mendoza Line. All you do is take out your frustrations on someone that obviously has gotten into your head. It's like he owns you.
I offer donuts, a bit of SABR, and a better handle than M Dar M Carlos JJ etc. But seriously, instead of trolling eric relentlessly and stalking him to the point of finding out his personal life (seriously, that's creepy and borderline cray), try contributing worthwhile opinions that, y'know, contribute to the thread.
Like right now we're discussing the validity of H/A splits and if they're truly useful in identifying true talent level of individual players.
ur a fucking idiot tx ball. know your facts before you start flappin your gums. i could give a shit less about erics personal. life and for to insinuate that is absurd. lmfao idiot
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