What is your opinion of the A.J. Pierzynski signing?
MJH on accountability
Elvis for Upton is a dream.
Elvis for Upton plus is a stupid dream.
Maybe this is what goes down.... Hopefully we can all agree (except for Not That Eric, who doesn't seem to add a lot to this forum except for attacking Eric R., who by the way, is much more knowledgeable) that Elvis for Upton makes a whole lot of sense. However, if the trade went down today, Profar starts the year in Arlington and we lose another year of him. If that is the case, why not wait until May to make the trade. Very few other contending teams have the resources to make a play for Upton with the exception of the Braves and maybe Baltimore (although I don't think they would be willing to give up Bundy, and I don't really think they can sustain winning so many 1 run games in that division). Hopefully neither of those teams are willing to meet Upton's price. It gives Profar another few months to bridge the gap between AA and the majors by spending time in AAA, and gives us another year of control. I think if he starts the year in Arlington, he struggles the first month or two anyways. With Olt starting the year in RR, it also gives him time to tear $h!t up and increase his value again. Like P1Stephen said, it is hard to have a good attitude and be motivated when the team you play for is CONSTANTLY trying to trade you. And for all of the Upton haters who think the outfield will be fine going with Murph, Cruz, Gentry/Martin, that could be a true statement for 2013 if we have 0 injuries. Cruz gets injured every year except for last year, Gentry and Martin have both had some injury issues, and Murph is 31 and will be playing everyday for the first time in his MLB career. Moreover, both corner OF spots hit free agency next year, and unless you are confident in Engel Beltre's ability to make an impact at the big league level in 2014, we do not have any legit COF prospects that will be ready by then. Upton is going to be 25 this season and would likely put up 4-6 WAR in Arlington. He not only makes up for a lot that we lost with Hamilton this year, but also bridges the gap until guys like Beras, Mazara, Guzman and Brinson start showing up over the next 2-5 years. We have all seen that JD is too smart to grossly overpay for guys, and it is highly likely that another club is willing to go higher for both Cruz and Murph than we are willing to next winter. Also agree with not wanting to include Holland in any type of deal unless there was a backup plan in place that the FO was 100% sure they could implement. Not That Eric knows less than Evan Grant, which isn't much. Peace.
Olt and Holland would actually be very good value for Arizona, and I imagine if it was that simple the deal already would have been made. If Ian Kennedy can pitch at the top of a National League rotation, I have minimal doubt that Holland could do the same. Mike Olt has a high ceiling and ridiculously low floor. He could be an All Star 3B or a washout by the time he's 27.
As someone who's pushed hard for an Elvis-Upton swap, I've conceded that either (a) Texas isn't convinced Jurickson Profar is ready to be a full-time SS, or (b) they don't value Upton as much as some of us do.
Keep Profar in the minors for 10 more years, that way we can control him longer.
The idea that the Snakes would give up Upton for Elvis straight up is just ridiculous.
I do not know what world you people are living in. Did you see what the Mariners were willing to tender for Upton?
The idea that the Snakes would give up Upton for Elvis straight up is just ridiculous.
Have you been sleeping for the last 3 months?
Joe, the Rangers played against only about 45 LH starters last year. You want to keep Cruz around for 200 ABs max? That doesn't make sense. Murphy's a better hitter for his career against RHPs than Cruz and has superior defense. Again, I don't see a need for Cruz if Upton is here.
As for Holland, it's not about emotion at all. I see a young guy who has all the tools necessary to be a pretty good ML pitcher, but he hasn't put it all together yet. If he puts it together, he's an incredible bargain. If he never does and continues to put up years like he did last year, he's a bit overpaid but not a rotation killer. I'd rather not deal him for Upton and create another hole in the rotation, because a cheaper/younger replacement could actually be worse than Holland.
@ Not that Eric
Profar is 19. Shut up.
Here's to hoping we trade Cruz and bring back Napoli if Upton is traded for.
My final offer for Justin Upton would sit right at Perez, Olt, Garcia, and Buckel with Eric Chaves thrown back to Texas.Ideally I'd like to see Ross seize the 5th spot, and if we're not at least a close 3rd and <6 games out of first, then a midseason deal shipping Andrus, Holland, Cruz, Moreland to St. Louis for Wainwright, Craig, and Taveras.
Romro--I'm sorry I had an opinion. I should have known better. Bur shut up-REALLY??
@Joe: it's not a dream, and if I were sending Elvis to Arizona, I'd like something extra besides Upton. It has to do with surplus value.
I've done the math before, but I'll try and summarize it. And it's based on WAR, and we know what that means. But still, figure out how much WAR they are likely to produce over the remainder of their respective contracts, assign a dollar value to that, and subtract their salary. That's how much surplus value they'll provide. By that calculation, I expect Elvis to provide more surplus value in 2 years than Upton will in 3. That's why I want something else besides Upton.
Towers probably doesn't see it that way, because Upton has a high ceiling and, at that ceiling, is an MVP candidate hitting for lots of power, which as we know is the most fan-attracting thing. I'll bet the Rangers see it that way, though, which may be why such a deal hasn't been done.
Along that same line, Profar for Upton is a terrible idea for the Rangers.
Come on Danny boy, Plllllllease.
No, I am not keeping Cruz around for 200 at bats. You seriously underestimate the importance of 28 percent (45) of games though.
-I'm keeping him to KILL lefties as he always has for AT LEAST 200 at bats. -To be a serious threat off the bench against both lefties and righties-To be insurance in case Berkman gets injured or fails to regain previous form-To be insurance against Murphy falling on his face for four months at the plate before he heats up as we have grown accustomed to seeing every year. -To be trade bait at deadline for something we might need.-To provide competition for guys who might otherwise fall asleep on the job-And so on and so forth
@not that Eric
You should be sorry for posting such a garbage opinion.
@Joe - so I'm confused... are you saying we should trade Murphy or Cruz? I think that if you dangled both players as trade bait right now, Murphy would be the more desirable option. He's younger and is more versatile. He doesn't have the power that Cruz offers but he get's on base a helluva lot more.
We have a pretty big problem on our hands at the end of the year. Both Cruz and Murphy are FA's at the end of the season and unless I'm missing something, there's no heir apparent for both of them. What if Martin is a bust or Wash doesn't trust him? He could become Julio Borbon. We'd be completely screwed and left with only Gentry and probably a converted IFer (Kinsler, Moreland, or Olt). Adding an Upton or a Bourne may not only be a short term solution, it may determine our future.
I would prefer Upton of course, but Bourne's only going to cost you money and a draft pick... and for those of you that say Bourne wouldn't fit in the payroll, I say bullshit! This FO knew they were going to have to substantially increase payroll to keep Hamilton or go for Greinke. And while I'm not advocating some stupid, 7 yr/$150M contract... I would be ok with going 5 yrs on Bourne knowing I'm only going to get 3 good years out of him and eating 2 years of decline. I know everyone will point to MY's contract but you're comparing apples to oranges. They are not only totally different players with totally different skillsets, but Bourne could be that missing piece that pushes us to a WS, while MY was signed out of desperation and as an act of good faith to us fans, letting us know they still care.
I'm not in love with Bourne or Upton but take a look at the future, beyond 2013, and give me better alternatives. There's not alot of OF talent in the pipe-line fellas. Just sayin'...
Profar for Upton would be terrible, agreed.
Upton's ceiling is far higher than Elvis'
And that is not just theoretical ceiling. HE HAS HAD A NEAR SIX WAR SEASON ALREADY.
Elvis will never have a six WAR season.
Factor in the boost that Upton will get in the blast furnace you are talking about a major value.
Elvis is much cheaper, but that is because he is worth much less.
If Upton is happy and in the blast furnace it is likely he will produce at least 4 to 5 WAR which is even with Elvis' best projection, but we would get Upton for three years, not two, and its possible he could end up producing 16+ WAR during that time. He is much more expensive than Elvis but cheap compared to other players of his caliber.
By all means post your specific projected numbers. And isn't it possible Elvis could regress slightly? Also remember that Upton is 25 years old with massive power potential. Elvis has very little power potential despite being young, and his best qualities (defense) have already maxed out. He is not going to get any more WAR from defense, and his base stealing skills aren't great. He will only get slower from here on out.
Keep dreaming people, straight up Elvis for Upton, lol
Do you guys really think that JD would not pull that trigger a million times if he had the option?
No you don't. Reality check, that means that the deal is TOO GOOD for us. In trades you actually have to give something up to get something you want.
not that Eric is JDB. How many times do we have to tell you? shove yur them. They suck.
shuv your opinions that is
We were talking about possibly trading Cruz if Upton takes his place.
Why do geeks have such animus? And Judge, what is "shove yur them"??
Coming from someone who can't correctly spell "that" in Not That Eric, this is ironic.
oh not good does this mean Eric is jdb AND not that eric split personality. Ability and desire to spel corectly are too diferent tingsAnyways, if you are jdb, Eric, I am happy that you have rehabilitatad yourselff. You are far more valuable to the forum this way, but stop the split eric act thing, that is like going back to your old self, not good.
In winning mlb baseball a middle of the road all star short stop has much more value then a middle of the road all star corner outfielder, even if they are not paid on that par. What holds Elvis back is that ridiculous 14 in 2284 number. Every year he has started a season he has appeared as a larger and stronger Elvis, but he also knows his role, and simply does not try for the long ball. In this coming year there maybe a quantum jump. To give an example, Hamilton was keenly aware that Big Long Ball numbers will pay off in November. For in his career his numbers were solid but not spectacular [tops 32], so going for fences more then the past led to a quantum jump and a quantum jump in pay. Although it may not be in his game, he may pull a Davey Johnson, then everyone will be saying , what will you thinking when you wanted to trade Elvis for Upton even up. Can still easily see Upton in Seattle, with Justin telling Towers you do not want me, so buy out my no-trade clause. He however has repeatedly told Towers he did not want to go to Seattle, this according to Harold Reynolds, which to many on this forum give little credibility, except in this case, Upton's agent is Harold's older brother. So for Tower, this was a way of trading Upton without trading him. The question then raises, why is Towers posturing? Which, oddly says that either he never wanted to trade Upton in the first place, and he viewed Upton as already disgruntled, so why not postulate; or Tower's wanted to get the Rangers to blink first. The best road now for the Rangers is to move on, they have already have shown keen interest in Justin. So in 2016, when he is a free agent, whether he stays with the Diamondbacks or acquiesces to moving on to the Mariners, who do you think he wants to land with, an at 28 and at the top of his game. I know 2016 is a wee bit future, but show patience. .
right on right on right on ATX
@Pablo: It isn't Just the Draft Pick... it's the associated Slot Money that goes with it. Without that slot money, the pool of cash with which the Rangers have to work in order to sign their 2013 Draft Picks is jeopardized.
That CBA tweak had a LOT more impact than anyone, apparently, considered that it might.
If it were JUST the pick, they could toss that. But, you don't mess with how you can allocate money to get the picks you do make signed.
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