What is your opinion of the A.J. Pierzynski signing?
MJH on accountability
Link Here (insider required). He had him at 21st last year, so a big jump this year to 10th.
This part caught my eye about Elvis: I think Andrus' bat has another leap in it, one that will put his average in the low .300s and bring his OBP to a point where he'd help just about any club at the top of the lineup -- which club's lineup he'll top is, of course, the operative question.
In case you were wondering, he had Trout/Harper at #1/#2, and Stanton at #4.
If Elvis can hit consistently in the low .300s, he'll easily get between $22-$25M. I'd love if he did that this year and next.
Yeah... it'd be nice to have that extra draft pick PLUS the $$$ for the slot allocation to add to our ability to make great offers.
I think it stinks now that ESPN requires you to use facebook to log in for comments. Oh well no more commenting on there for me.
The commenters on espn are generally pretty dumb and uneducated on topics they post on though. Not to say they are geniuses and extremely well educated on here, but at least the posters here are significantly better and much more informed.
$22-$25 mil AAV is reserved for power hitters and aces. He will top out at $20 mil AAV (my guess is 17-18) regardless of how he performs these last 2 years before FA. Well, ok, not regardless. But barring two 30 HR campaigns.
$22-25m is reserved for aces and game-changing hitters. With a career wRC+ of 86, an ISO of .078, and a total of 14 HRs in 4 years, I wouldn't call him a game-changing hitter. He's a good hitter for a SS, and an elite defender. Those things do not a $22-25m player make.
I've had this discussion a lot, and it seems like his absolute floor, even in a flooded SS market (which 2015 probably won't be), is probably around $15m. Somebody will pay at least that much. More than likely $17-18, with a possibility of $20, I would guess for about 6 years. I would say 5, because it seems like teams are fewer years lately but, sometimes, higher AAV (a lot of them have money to spend), except he'll be younger than most FAs. 7 or 8 years is possible too, but doesn't seem likely, especially if the expensive-but-shorter-term contract trend continues to play out.
It's just a number I pulled out, but I'll guess Elvis goes for around $120m, give or take $10m.
there aren't a lot of players under 25
I think Andy's pretty close here. I think he'll get pretty close to $20M, but my assumption is an OPS 50 points or more higher than last year's. I don't see how you can commit that kind of money to a player who has a prospect right behind him with a higher ceiling and who is considerably cheaper.
Elvis has a pretty big frame and I can see him growing in to some power over the next 3 years. Hopefully we get to see some of that while he's still a Ranger.
I really wish Wash will let him swing away a bit more often this year instead of taking the bat out of his hands so much. Especially if he stays at #2 and Kinsler keeps getting picked off.
Elvis has a small frame. Even when he put on some weight last offseason, he's still small.
As for Andy saying "He's a good hitter for a SS," well, no, he isn't. Last year he posted a 95 wRC+, and that was the best of his career. He's almost exactly average in terms of offensive punch as far as shortstops go, and below-average on the aggregate.
I still content he'll get 7-9 years for $18-$20 million AAV, and I don't think that's a stretch at all.
he's an above average hitter for a SS but below average in general....WRC isn't relative to position. You can also find the average WRC per position.
No, that's what I'm saying. 95 wRC+ is right in the middle in terms of qualifying shortstops in 2012. No revisionist history here.
I'd have NO problem giving Elvis a long term (7-8 years) deal. If we're not going to trade him, we need to sign him.
No team is going to pay above $16m a year for a batter who has exactly 14 home runs in 2284 at bats. They will hold that against Elvis at bargain time, does not matter the circumstances. Power speaks, and pays. Also, as good as he is, he is not Ossie Smith. However, Elvis through obvious work outs, especially off-season, is getting bigger and stronger every year. So a quantum, and would have to be QUANTUM, jump is possible His batting numbers are trending up, so an above .300 are possible, just not a given like a Mauer or Ichiro . Still, there are few teams that would not take him and his intangibles and baseball savvy is off the charts.
No team is going to pay above $16m a year for a batter who has exactly 14 home runs in 2284 at bats. They will hold that against Elvis at bargain time, does not matter the circumstances. Power speaks, and pays.
You don't know that, and, in fact, I'd say you're flat wrong in your assumption. After the 2014 season, Elvis will be 26, and each of Boston, New York (AL), LA (NL) and PHI will be in the market for a marquis shortstop. You might even be able to add the Angels to that list.
There is no way he makes it out of that market with anything under $17 million AAV. Given the amount of extra TV revenue, inflation, and the fact that Elvis is a damn good player on his own (top-3 at his position in MLB), I could easily see a 9-year, $180 million deal. His speed and defense basically earn him 3 wins. If his bat even marginally increases, which, it should, since he's only 24 right now, the bucks will come.
I do agree with Nompton. If we're not going to trade him, we need to extend him, and trade Jurickson instead.
Speaking of which, Andrus was beaned last night in a game and it scared the crap out of the FO....he shouldn't be playing Winter Ball.
Eric, Elvis is listed at 6', 200#. Beltre by comparison is listed at 5'11" 220#.
Maybe you haven't hit your age 23 growth spurt yet, but that is usually around the time guys start beefing up. Only time will tell but you should know better than just about anyone the 22-26 years are usually the hardest to project as far as power goes.
Henchmen, do I smell a wager? It's more than just frame, but rather the approach Andrus carries with him to the plate. His bat path is incredibly flat, which is excellent for the spray hitter he is, but could you envision him hitting even 10 home runs over the course of a season?
I live in California, but tickets to a Rangers game are on me if he hits > 10 home runs in 2013. Are you game for my odds?
We're talking about 1 home run every 70 or so plate appearances.
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