What is your opinion of the A.J. Pierzynski signing?
MJH on accountability
The ZIPS projections for the Rangers are out. ZIPS projects 93 to 94 wins for the Angels, which is 5 more than the projection for the Rangers. Of course, you have to take that projection with a grain of salt b/c ZIPS doesn't attempt to project playing time.
ZIPS projects 17.1 combined WAR for Trout, Pujols, and Hamilton and 8.5 WAR for Weaver and Wilson.
How did ZIPS have the projected last year? I guarantee it wasn't a third place finish.
I don't think you can fault ZIPS for that. No one predicted the A's run last year. Projection systems aren't perfect, but they are better than the alternative.
i don't understand why people rely on WAR for pitchers. it uses peripherals instead of results.
i also don't understand why people care about projections. if a player has a good track record then you can say "he'll probably be good this year" but predicting stats is just silly.
Does ZIPS figure in the Astro's in the division this year as well? How may W's will that alone add to the division teams?
I don't calculate WAR the same way FanGraphs does - I use regressed FIP based on career length, so players that exceed their FIP are more likely to meet their ERA than their FIP, the longer they have done it.
In addition to what Dan said, over the long run, FIP explains 96% of pitcher results. There are certain pitchers whose ERAs consistently outperform or underperform their FIPs (Jim Palmer, Nolan Ryan) due to special skill (or lack thereof) in suppressing BABIP or stranding runners. But these guys are rare. For most pitcher's ERA equals FIP over large samples.
Do not ask Billy Ripken what he thinks of WAR or ZIP.
Wait, what?? Is that THE Dan SZSZymborski?!?!? /angelic harps
I enjoyed your spot on the Baseball America Podcast recently.
I think he gives reasonable projections, outside Weaver being worth 5 WAR and Wilson being worth 4. I'm more inclined to believe each will be closer to 3.5, which isn't much, but it could shave off a couple wins. 5 WAR for Pujols may also be generous, but other than that, I find this to be a very logical set of projections.
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