What is your opinion of the A.J. Pierzynski signing?
MJH on accountability
I'm very bullish on him. I think he's going to have an extraordinary season. I think his walk rate decreases, his sterling stuff stays sterling, and his performance metrics reflect his talent. I'm not going to predict W/L or ERA but I will predict the following:
~10.0 K/9~3.2 BB/93.00 FIP6.5 fWAR
Bill James currently projects:10.4 K/93.7 BB/93.08 FIPSo maybe you're not too far off. I can see the walk rate going down for sure, but I'm closer to Bill James' projection than yours.
The good thing to me is that Yu sort of looked like a big game pitcher to me last year. I haven't researched it at all, but he seemed to have the mentality you look for in a TORP. I continue to have high hopes for Yu.
I just don't see any reason that his BB rate would remain so high especially given that he hasn't exhibited those same issues in his career prior to joining the MLB. Once he established his zone and got comfortable, he was lights out. I expect that to hold true for the majority of the year.
For reference, Yu was at 4.2 BB/9 last season. So 3.7 is a half a walk per 9 improvement. I think over the course of 30+ starts Yu will have those games where he nibbles too much and that will inflate it closer to 3.7. However, as I alluded to in the previous post, I think you'll see it drop once we get into the stretch run. Last year Yu was at 1.7 BB/9 in 36+ September innings.
Bill James' projections are stupid.
That's an excellent point, The Henchmen.
I am, as well, extremely high on the prospect of Yu Darvish's 2013.
10.5 K's/92.8 BB's/93.15 FIP6.8 fWAR
By my eye test, the late season Yu was revelatory compared to his earlier pitching. He appeared to challenge batters rather than attempting to finesse outs at the edges with his esoterica inventory of pitches. This appeared to correlate with Soto's catching, who I believe to be substantially under appreciated. I also believe his walk ratio was also augmented by umpires imposing a rookie strike zone.
A glance at the numbers, albeit a very SSS, is less favorable. His late season dominance notwithstanding, his walk ratio was still high. Team defense should be better--no MY at first base--and With a full season of Soto and a year under his belt, he looks like a guaranteed TORP and a probable ace. Yu is the Rangers' window; I hope the FO can quickly build a team around him--better OF, better defense, and another SP.
ZIPS projects 5.7 WAR, a 3.4 ERA, 3.24 FIP, and a 2.6 K/BB rate. I'd be very happy with that.
One point about Yu's 2012 season. His ERA underperformed his FIP by 0.6 runs. The main reason for that was he had trouble stranding runners relative to how well he should've done given his FIP. Fangraphs shows that failure to strand runners as expected cost Yu 1.1 bWAR.
Yu's failure to strand runners was due mainly to the fact that his BABIP with men on base was 50 points higher than without men on base. That was true despite the fact that his FIP and K/BB rate was lower with men on base. So he got incredibly unlucky. His ERA will improve a lot simply by virtue of neutral luck.
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