Forum > HERE IS WHAT IT WOULD REALLY COST THE RANGERS TO GET STANTON, FROM A MARLIN PERSPECTIVE.
I understand that Stanton is a great talent who had an amazing year 22 season. But that does not set a floor for him. Juan Gonzalez had a 1.000 OPS and 169 OPS+ season when he was 23, but never reached that same level of OPS+ again.
eric
Also keep in mind that Stanton in 2 1/2 seasons has yet to break the 40 HR BARRIER or even the 100 RBI one. He has struck out more than 300 times in less than 1000 at bats in his 2nd and 3rd season. Another way of saying this, he does have holes in his swing. Everyone seems to jump on the bandwagon on Gian, and declare him the next Babe Ruth or Willie Mays, before he has even proven he is the next David Kingman or Josh Hamilton. He is immensely talented, but so is Engel Beltre or a recent release by the Yankees, Chris Dickerson. Keep in mind also that Josh for 1/2 season for the Reds had better numbers than Gian, and was traded for a Ranger pitcher who at the time had won exactly 3 games in the majors, Edinson Volquez. And everyone seems to want to trade the farm for him. The time to go after Stanton will be mid-season or after, when isolated in the Marlins lineup, he falls way short of the numbers all have already projected. Would I like Stanton on the Rangers in right, yes. Would I want to see the Rangers lose 5 top prospects, NO. A trade of Andrus and Cruz for Stanton would be amenable, but the Marlins simply could not afford it for several viable reasons, even if the talent is equitable.
les
@les: he hit 37 HRs in 2012 in only 123 games. At that pace, he would hit almost 50 in 162 games (which, in fairness, few players play). That's ridiculous.
Andy
All I've read is Stanton goes nowhere. So maybe it's a good idea to see how Beras, Mazara, and Guzman progress before trading players that might be needed later?
samson
@samson: I doubt the Rangers trade any of those guys anytime soon. Beras hasn't played a single game in MLB or MILB, and Mazara and Guzman haven't played above rookie league. It's too early to really have enough of an idea how they project for them to be evaluated for trades. Even if they have success at every level and move up through the system at an all-star pace, none of them is likely to see MLB before 2016, by which point Stanton will be in his FA year.
Andy
You could probably trade Elvis for a prospect haul from the Pirates (Cole, Taillon, Hanson, Heredia, etc) or the Cardinals (Taveras, Miller, Martinez, Rosenthal, Adams, etc), then create a monster package for Stanton. That is probably the only way to get Stanton.
Does a Cole, Olt, Perez, Hanson, Heredia, Moreland or a Miller, Olt, Perez, Rosenthal, Adams look enticing? That's the only way to get him without including Profar. You would probably get more value from the Pirates since Furcal is back now.
P1 Stefen
Andy 37 is not breaking the 40 HR barrier. And why did he not get his 6oo at at bats, health issues, and for a 23 year old. And that is not a red flag. Yes he is a 5 - tool talent , with 5 stolen bases [again, health issues]. Stanton in that 600 at bats would also be flirting with the 200 strike out barrier.. And though a Kingman/ Dunn type still has great value, and 300+ Ks in less than 1000 at bats puts him in that company, is it worth the farm and probably future. Profar, Olt, Scheppers, Perez, Buckel if kept will in a few years I be the core of the Rangers. Hypothetically I would trade 2 B players for an A, but knowing that the replacement for that other B player is another B player. But this may not even come close in this 5 for 1, where all 5 could be at A level. And who is to say that in 5 years from now, that no one would trade an Adam Dunn right handed hitting clone for an ALL-STAR 3B MAN IN Olt, or 1 of the 3 best ballplayers in baseball in Profar. But it seems like every one wants to trade those two with 3 potential high level pitchers for that. If the Rangers do this it will be the worse trade JD ever made, and it is hard to beat Eaton for a future all-star young first baseman [A.GON] and a 2007 all-star pitcher[C. Young]. Would I want Giancarlos in right over Cruz, yes , but for What price?
les
"37 is not breaking the 40 HR barrier."
Duh.
Andy
^
Ha
P1 Stefen
Btw Les, the odds are that most of our prospects will flame out. If you can make a trade for Stanton, even if it includes your beloved 5-tool (really? how long has he been a prospect?) outfielder Engel Beltre, you do it. Saying Profar will be a top 3 player and Olt an all-star in 5 years is kind of a stretch. Maybe Profar is that guy, maybe not. But in 5 years, Stanton could be the #1 player in all of baseball. Yes please.
P1 Stefen
Mike (I know his name is Giancarlo) Stanton is a proven elite force. Last year was his 3rd season in the bigs, oh and did I ever mention that he did this all in Miami. He did this with no one on his team besides Hanley and Jose Reyes, and he only had Reyes for 1 year. Les people believe that Stanton will be great because he has shown at the highest level that he can be great. Look Engel Beltre doesn't have half the ability that Stanton does. Stanton is special, and there is no denying that.
juricksoon
What is this pick on poor Engel Beltre week. Although, he could actually have a good Spring, but he was an example of a 5-tool that has not had success. And though Stanton has had success with the long ball at an early age, there are red flags, that simply can not be ignored if a team is going to trade 5 top prospects, all with success at AA level or higher, and one being defined as the #1 prospect in all baseball in 2013. What red flags??? [1] at minor league level 372 strike outs in 1211 at bats, and a batting average under 280, take a look of current and past super stars at their minor league numbers, typically you will see over-whelming success, not just good numbers, and you could say, what about his young age, but this is true for all of them. [2]He has continued that K rate at Major league level and sits at 33 %, or in 600 at bats equates to 200 strike outs, this tells pitchers he has holes in his swing, that major league pitchers would continue to exploit. and [3] this is the real big one, a history of injury at 23. Saying all this, I would want him in right for the Rangers, just to see him hit the ball out of Arlington Stadium. But keep in mind, he may prove to be a right handed Adam Dunn without the high walk total. I just would not want him for PROFAR & OLT & SCHEPPERS & PEREZ & BUCKEL OR EVEN AN ALFARO SUB for one of the pitchers. Like the succinct replies 'duh' and 'ha', short and to the point.
les
Jon Heyman, "[the] Rangers [are] still looking for more after adding Berkman. MBourn, JUpton, Kyle Lohse could be in play"
Does not add Stanton. What will happen?
TDRanger
@Les
“@DSzymborski: If you want to know how bad Hamilton's plate discipline last year, he missed on 35% of swings. Adam Dunn was at 30%.”
Stanton > Hamilton > Dunn
You act like he won't improve as a player. He's 23. Younger than Olt who you're professing to be an all star in 5 years.
Come on now.
P1 Stefen


@Eric
The whole Stanton thing is ripping me apart. I don't doubt for a second that Miami would trade Stanton for the perfect package, but that is a package that 3 maybe 4 teams can offer. I would love "Mike" Giancarlo Stanton. He was 22 last year and had a slugging percentage over 600. Let me repeat, AT 22 HE HAD A SLUGGING PERCENTAGE OVER 600! He was on trail for a 6+ WAR season as a 22 year old in a pitcher friendly ballpark. Consider this he almost had a slugging percentage over 700 (yeah you read that right) against lefties. In the second half of the season he put up a 299/356/701 stat line. In 5 separate months his OPS was over 1.000 including a 1.201 OPS in May. When he was ahead in the count he had an OPS of 1.471 including a slugging percentage over 900! Oh and did I mention that he did this at 22 in an extremely pitcher friendly park. Because he was. At the same time I am not comfortable giving up the farm, as badly as I want to. But we shouldn't doubt how good Stanton will be, because he will be good and he will break a lot of records. I just don't know if he will do it all as a Ranger.