What is your opinion of the A.J. Pierzynski signing?
MJH on accountability
Positive article about the Rangers offseason:
It's a decent article, but a little light on specifics. It also assumes a lot of things go right. For example, Perez and Ogando could be fine or they could be pretty bad. Perez in particular could have a 5.0 ERA in his first 10 games. That wouldn't be shocking. And then who replaces him. Robbie Ross? The article also assumes that Lewis, Soria, and Feliz will all return, be healthy, and be immediately effective. That seems like a big assumption. And then there's the problem of ignoring the drop off in Kinsler's production as he moves to 1B. And assuming that 3 rookies (Martin, Profar, and Olt) will all live up to their rather generous ZIPS projections even though 2 of them will likely spend a lot of time playing out of their natural positions. And assuming Murphy will repeat last season's performance.
Can the Rangers win 90 games? Sure. But a lot of things are going to have to go right. Let's hope it happens.
I agree witht he sentiments of the article. Mostly because I think the Rangers are not done dealing. I think you will see Berkman as a DH/1B platoon and Upton as the RF in a trade where we give up Olt, Grimm, and maybe Buckel. Which means you lineup looks like Kinsler -2B/1B/3B/DH, Profar-2B/SS, Andrus-SS, Beltre-3B, Upton - RF, Murphy-LF, Martin/Gentry-CF Moreland -1B/DH Piersynski-C, Cruz-OF/DH. Your bench would be Moreland/Gentry/Garcia/Profar/Soto. Your rotation: Darcish, Harrison, Holland, Ogando, Perez (with Colby coming back in May/June). Bullpen of Nathan, Scheppers, Lindbloom, Frasor, Ross, Kirkman (with Feliz and Soria back in June/July or so).
I like this team a lot. I was one of the guys saying that the sky was falling a few weeks ago, but I must admit this team as I have constructed it here is very exciting and full of possibilities. The flexibility of the team is amazing. Two starting catchers!! Five OF's that could start on lesser teams, an exciting bench of younger players!! Plus a good starting rotation and a bullpen full of possibilities. In no way do I think this team is as strong as the last few years but the energy level and excitement should be much higher.
2013 Rangers to me look as strong as any of the last 3 years already. To me, a lot of things would have to go wrong not to be.
I look at the following WAR that i expect: Murphy 3, Gentry 4.5, Martin 4, Beltre 5.5, Andrus 4, Kinsler 4, Berkman (I hope he is signed) 4, catcher 3.5 with some platooning, DH 2, Darvish 5, Ogando 4, Harrison 4, Holland 2.5, xx/Lewis 2.5, and a good bullpen 7, bench .5. I think these numbers actually allow some upside even from these totals.
To do this, Rangers should trade Cruz or else Ron will put him in RF. I have already factored in Gentrys splits and Martin's. The Rangers rotation is reasonably deep and bullpen is very deep. Speed is good, power is good, defense is good, starting ptiching is good. Front office is good, manager is bad.
"The Rangers rotation is reasonably deep and bullpen is very deep."
I have to disagree on both counts.
"I like this team a lot."
I like the team that you've constructed (adding Upton and Berkman) as well, assuming Berkman is healthy. If Berkman is healthy, the Rangers certainly have $ to sign him. But I don't buy in to the notion that Ariz will trade Upton for Olt. That would be crazy on their part. Upton is a proven 3 to 6 WAR player with 3 years of team control and a favorable contract. Olt is an unproven prospect, not in the the 1st tier of prospects. In fact, I'm beginning to wonder whether Ariz has taken the Andrus for Upton trade off the table. I suspect they're asking for Andrus+ or maybe even Profar. We'll see.
I see Upton as a small upgrade over Murphy, shifting Murphy to DH, which dispaces Mitch Moreland from DH (Berkman at 1st if Rangers sign him) and requiring Profar to play ss in 2013 if Rangers trade Andrus as part of the trade package. However, I see Profar as less WAR in 2013 than Andrus. Also, this would entail swapping Profar's age 20 season in the majors with the Rangers instead of his age 26 year, when he will be much more productive. As such, I am not excited too much one way or the other about Upton.
Moreover, If Rangers trade Andrus as part of the Upton package, then Kinsler is at 2nd and cant play 1st. I see this as dangerous if Rangers do not sign Berkman, because Moreland has been almost replacement level only at 1st, so far.
Either way, I dont care about Upton, personally and I do not care if Olt is at AAA in 2013. Berkman is a net upgrade however, if healthy, no matter what, if healthy. Did I say, if healthy? Therefore, I favor Berkman and dont mind an incentive contract with a high upside, and even 2 years.
Berkman is the issue, not Upton. Berkman is cheaper too, and will make more WAR difference. If healthy, he will reduce Moreland and provide a 3.5 WAR upgrade with no side effects that would come from a trade for Upton.
No, no, no. Even before Berkman, Murphy should not be moved to DH before Cruz. Cruz's defense has been in decline and Murphy's is not (it was great last year, but I'm not sure it will be again this year). If Berkman is not DHing on a given day, I hope Cruz is, more often than not.
The interesting thing is, if the Rangers trade for Upton or someone, what do they do then? Murphy seems good in LF, but I wouldn't want him in CF. Cruz is subpar in RF, so CF is right out. That means either Berkman is at 1B a lot, or Cruz or Murphy is expendable.
Cruz is not on my preferred 2013 team. I would prefer to get salary relief and a prospect.
I do not like his defense or baserunning or walks. Also, I fear, I KNOW, Wash will play him everyday if he is on the team.
Olt, Grimm, Buckel for Headley... Headley for Upton...
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