What is your opinion of the A.J. Pierzynski signing?
MJH on accountability
Is there any evidence at all that Upton is lazy? To everyone who keeps saying this: Stop with the armchair psychologist crap!!
One's Upton projections relies primarily on which season properly reflects his true abilities:
If you believe that 2012 is a good measure of how he will perform over the next three years, then you probably don't believe that he has much value.
If you believe that 2011 is a better representative of his talent level (given his injury issues in 2012), then you probably believe that Upton is an up-and-coming star.
I tend to believe that Upton will perform at or above his 2011 level from this point forward. Just like with Hamilton, you can't wait until someone becomes a superstar if you want to get value when trading for them. To me, Upton's value will never be lower than it is right now.
@YP....16 WAR???????? What are you smoking? Stated before. http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/u/uptonju01.shtml
16.7 fWAR over the last 4 years. That's 8th in MLB among full-time outfielders. And he's yet to hit his prime. You lose.
@UTB....started averaging his numbers when he had over 3,000 plate appearances at age 25. Confucious say when a player has 550 plate appearances, average established.
Average not established. Upton was injured in 2012, and he was playing for a manger he didn't want to play for. He's 25. He won't be 26 until August. You lose, again.
Not arguing that Andrus has a trade value, but when you look at it, a team NEXT YEAR or at the trade dealine in July will pay the same.
Not true. 2 years of service is more valuable than 8 months of service. It gives the respective franchise more time to negotiate an extension.
http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=5222&position=OF Upton 16.7 war on fangraphs...
@ Eric...the statements were about WAR. You probably don't understand the difference, and to be truthful front offices don't use oWAR, WAR, or fWAR to reference things, that is a Beane-ball/paid-to-write-good-stories-sports-writers type of stuff. Let's get this straight so you guys can understand it; WAR, or any fWAR, oWAR or somesuch has an error rate of greater than 100%....100%, get that? The basis for WAR is +/-2. where the "average" is 0. Anybody get the math? Us "old folks" see a pig in a poke. WAR, oWAR, fWAR were and are based on FANTASY BASEBALL. Not predictive, though some try with SIERRA-but why does it miss more than hit? Oh, I got your 5 different "reasons" why things did not work out the way your stats/predictives say they should-unsound science. You want to make statements, do that with "stats" and history but when you want to make an argument you ignore them as it suits you, then compare a shortstops numbers to a center fielder/ Like I said, most stuff here is plain amateur. By the way, the 550 plate appearances thing is not mine-see Joey.
so you give up elvis for a player who has less years of team control (upton), but not for one who is superior and has more years of team control (stanton and cargo)? seriously?! your gonna give up elvis and at least three of your top prospects, there's no getting around it, so make it worth it! upton is not worth elvis! nor olt, nor martin perez, nor profar! so what if he was an mvp candidate two years ago. in this profession no one cares about what you did two years ago! what upton did two years ago doesn't help the rangers win TODAY! upton's numbers have been DECLINING! he's been on the trading block for the past two years and no one wants him! stop and think about that!
what would the rockies do with elvis? uh, play him. that's what they could do with him. no he won't replace tulo but he could play second base for them. have you looked at who they have on their roster as second baseman? i agree with you, the d-backs could use him more than the rocks. but given the choice b/w losing elvis for upton or cargo? i give him up for cargo. plus a smart GM can take elvis and use him to acquire pitching. so yes, the rocks can find some use for elvis.
@ Eric...the statements were about WAR. You probably don't understand the difference, and to be truthful front offices don't use oWAR, WAR, or fWAR to reference things ...
Well, now that you've dispelled all that front offices do, since you obviously know, I guess I'll just say you are absolutely correct and we can move forward amicably.
Upton had three years of team control. Elvis is under two. Thanks for playing though.
oh, how could i forget! let's trade elvis and the entire farm for a player who won't produce for a manager he doesn't like! sounds like a cancer to me.
Umm nobody is saying trade the farm for Upton. Thanks for playing again though.
@procurionYeah, I'm sure you know exactly what every FO uses to gauge the quality of baseball players. Smh.
I am confused here....@Eric, you make STATEMENTS regularly-not infrequently, where you state the front office's position AND Washington's philosophy-all included in the hate-fest that I read daily. I would wager that 90% of you never played ball past little league, or any other sort of organized sports-mostly you feed on paid "spotlights" about players and conjecture. The greatest misconception is where a sports writer-or any other type starts hyperbole about a subject and then refers to the "consensus" or "everyone else says" thing. Josh Hamilton spotlight mid-summer, a cutesy piece about how you "can't change Josh, b'gosh!" and most recently the spotlight about how Upton is "misunderstood". Are you guys just emotional or just stoopid? The writers are PAID to write those novelettes. Not new, not a huge secret, just not common;y spoken of. Need a boost for your player? Talk to so-and-so, give him a month and pure honey is coming soon. It has been this way for 40 years.....geez!
@procurionI don't know if you think you're making great points but you just sound like a raging mad man with an anger problem who thinks he knows more than he does and simply changes the subject to something completely unrelated when you're proven so miserably wrong.
Actually, Romro212000, I am a very happy guy and just don't quite understand how the fuckups in Daniels and Washington have actually made it to a greater than 80-win season; at least to hear people tell it. You made a blatantly false statement and I called you on it. Thank you for playing, asswipe.
Why in the hell would the Rockies trade for Elvis with Tulo...?! Move Elvis to 2B?!! That's crazy talk. You don't trade Cargo for Elvis to be a 2B. That makes zero sense. To jtorr saying the Rockies have no one at 2B, you obviously didn't pay attention to the Rockies. Fortunately for this conversation I had Tulo on my fantasy team... unfortunately. When he went down, they had some guy named Josh Rutledge step up and produce. He's their new 2B to pair with Tulo. Their middle infield is pretty set and extremely powerful. There is no way they trade for Elvis unless they plan on moving Tulo to 3rd and extending Elvis, which isn't happening. If you're going to make crazy trades, please do your hw. It just doesn't make sense for the Rockies to do that when they need pitching. I was actually against trading Elvis for Upton in the beginning, but trading Elvis for him should happen. Trading Elvis and Olt for Upton and Bauer would've been ideal but JD was being too cute and lost. If I'm Towers, I say screw JD and trade him for a boat load of pitching from the Mariners....
You're just full of class aren't you procurion? What blatantly false statement did I make again?
Anyone who legitimately argues for Cargo over Upton (while also saying nobody cares what you did 2+ years ago) loses all internet credibility. Also…
Baseball 101: You can’t always take stats at face value.Baseball 102: Trade from areas of strength. Trade for areas of weakness.Baseball 501: (Taught by Ricky in Ft Worth) Playing little league ball does in fact qualify you to second guess any and all baseball, softball, wallball & whiffle ball decisions.
Geez guys how about you settle this with pistols a dawn?
hahahaha "Baseball 501". Someday's I miss Ricky's ridiculous posts. He would make these new people go insane.
Oh good lord. The trolls abound.
Anyone who says Upton is garbage is completely full of it. Any one who argues to trade what ever it takes to get any player is full of it.
Right now we have one all star level SS and one top tier prospect SS. Keeping both doesn't make short term or long term sense for the team. Elvis has much more value now then he does at the deadline, when he has more value then after the season. The DBacks traded a more well regarded SP prospect for a less well regarded SS prospect because Towers was focused on having to get a multi year controllable SS.
If we can trade Elvis for Upton or Profar+ for Stanton we should. We would be trading from an area of strength to fill in an area of weakness. The primary weakness there isn't COF so much as it is lack of a young controllable middle of the order bat. We need another big bat for the middle of the lineup. People aren't enamored with Cargo because of contract and worries that he's not going to be nearly as good outside of Colorado, which is by most thoughts substantially better offensively then RBIA. Upton detractors have a point about inconsistency, but tend to ignore the fact that he's only 25. Stanton is easily the best of the three, but he's also probably the least available of the three, requiring Profar and several other big players out of the minor league system.
Personally if we can get Upton and a relief prospect or mid rotation type for Elvis + something small, then I think its a very good move on our part. Trade from strength to fill a hole. If we can't, I expect Profar to be sent to AAA until a hole opens up for him, considering he has another two options left, iirc.
jtorr21 has made everyone dumber for reading his rants.
1) No one is saying trade Elvis AND the farm for Upton. Trading Elvis for Upton is debatable but the Rangers are not throwing in multiple top prospects PLUS Elvis.
2) Absolutely nobody, anywhere, ever seriously suggested trading Profar for Upton.
3) Olt and Perez are prospects who are either blocked positionally or have a replaceable ceiling. Those guys should not hang up a trade for a potential superstar like Upton, from the Rangers perspective anyway.
4) "No one wants Upton" is laughable conjecture. All 29 other teams would "want" Upton. There are some behind-the-scenes issues with him and Arizona management, and yet their shady GM is still driving a really hard bargain. So don't act like Upton is available for an A-ball pitcher and no one will touch him.
5) It seems as though you blasted people for suggesting trading Elvis for Upton when they could trade Elvis for Stanton instead, which is also a joke. The Marlins aren't trading 4 years of Stanton for 2 years of a shortstop who is much more expensive, not as good a player, and will leave in 2 years anyway.
6) Along those same lines, the Rockies are not gonna trade their best hitter CarGo for a 2-year rental of a shortstop when they already have a long-term franchise shortstop. And why would they trade for Elvis then try to flip him to another team, in which case they would have absolutely zero leverage because everybody knows it's moronic to play Elvis at 2B?
Food for thought.
I miss Ricky in Ft. Worth's insight. I suppose he's too busy living it up with Dale Hansen or with his HoF relatives to enlighten us.
But seriously, Upton-for-Andrus makes complete sense for both sides. The Rangers would probably have to deal another prospect or two along with Andrus to acquire Upton, but such a deal would still make complete logical sense (more sense than holding onto Andrus, moving Profar to 2B and sliding Kinsler over to 1B---Yikes). Now, I haven't the slightest clue why Towers essentially traded Trevor Bauer for Didi Gregorius, or why he's made many of the moves that he's made, but the fact of the matter is that the D'Backs are stacked with OF's, and the Rangers are stacked at SS, and if any D'Backs' OF's are truly going to be dealt to Texas, I guarantee it will be Upton.
First off I'm on the band wagon of never letting Elvis leave!! he one of the best in the game at what he does!! (let me add to that !!!! thank you) I think I can sum up my position very simply and I can probably get the last word and close this thread...
Who will Washington use to bunt Kinsler over to second in the 3rd inning if we trade Elvis???
BBBBBOOOOOMMMMMM!!!!!!!!! Thread closed!
Jondar said it best. By the way, make sure and trade Cruz or Wash might put Cruz in RF. If Andrus is traded and Cruz traded separately, the Rangers would even save money too, even after paying Upton in 2013.
"before you trade a truly elite Andrus"
UTB is right. Elvis isn't elite. In 2012, he ranked 5th among SSs in fWAR and 36th among position players. He's young and may improve. But as of right now, he's not elite, just very good.
The bottom line is that we have Andrus for only 2 more years, and we have a replacement for him that ZIPS projects could post 3+ WAR in 2013. We don't need Andrus. What we need is an outfielder or 1B who can hit for power. Upton fits the bill. He's likely to produce at least as many WAR as Andrus over the next 2 seasons. He has a higher ceiling b/c unlike Andrus, he can hit. He's under 3 years of team control, not 2. And acquiring him would allow Profar and Kinsler to stay in the positions that maximize their value.
Andrus for Upton is a no brainer.
Notify me of follow-up comments via email.