What is your opinion of the A.J. Pierzynski signing?
MJH on accountability
Park Factors are often overlooked in evaluating players. Adrian Beltre was an avg. hitter in Seattle. He's been an MVP caliber hitter at RBIA.
Here is some evidence that Josh Hamilton's change in parks could severely affect his offensive output.
Exhibit A: Park Factors for Lefties
Exhibit B: Hamilton's Career Home/Away Split
Home wRC+ 148Away wRC+ 121
Exhibit C: Hamilton's Performance at AL West Parks over the Past 3 Seasons
Angel Stadium--85 ABs, .681 OPSSafeco--77 ABs, .680 OPSOakland--85, .713 OPSAstros--38, .921 OPSRBIA--782, 1.014 OPS
I think you'll see a decrease for sure going from rbia to Anaheim. What you could really see is him get frustrated and go into a phase like we saw for long stretches this year. If he couldn't break a slump in rbia, he sure wont in Anaheim.
RFan...it's sure nice to hear someone else hollering about park effects. I've pounded and pounded on that topic endlessly the past few years.
In my opinion if you want to know a player's true stripes...and you want it shorthand...just look solely at the road splits. On the road you are getting a cross sample of the player in lots of parks and in different climates.
I'd love to see Josh flail, wail and fail.
ProfarMVP, I hope you get your wish.
I'm not sure they'll fall off in his first year, but before that contrat is over they'll be way off. I would expect him to put up 30-35 HR's this season, around 100 RBI's, some horrible looking AB's, and many, many weird quotes.
I expect him to miss at least one game with the marine layer affecting some obscure body part. It will then be known as the Hamilton syndrome.
@RFan or anyone else who can answerPlease excuse my ignorance on the matter but I'm curious as to whether or not these 'park factors' are based on actual results during the life of the park? If so, have defensive range factors been included in those results to determine the 'park factor'? I've been a fan of the Rangers for 20+ years and I've seen a lot of very bad defenses. For example, if the park factor is based on actual results, then imagine how an infield of all MYs over a period of 10 years could skew the results, not that I'm saying the Ranger's defense has been that bad, I'm just curious if defensive stats have been factored in?
With the World, as we knew it, ended Dec 21st, Josh was given a new life-new start as a LAAA. Sliders outside low, will have more effect during earth quakes though. Still untouchable for Josh.
FOR 2013, absolutely NOT. Call it the Pujols effect, though the Beltre effect was not bad, Hamilton will be well protected in a very potent line up: TROUT-KENDRICKS-PUJOLS-JOSH- TRUMBO. He is not going to immediate struggle out the gate like Pujols did last year adjusting to a new league. Pujols after May WAS PUJOLS, and Josh will be Josh the whole year, though every thing is predicated on good help and/or backsliding, and LA LA LAND is the last place to send a recovering alcoholic/ drug addict. However, I see Josh having a ba way north of .300 with 40. + hrs and 120+ rbis, in other words what is expected in Arlington . The proof of the Pujols effect is to look at the effects of batters ahead or behind in the St Louis line ups over a decade of his order in the line up. A drop off may occur for both of Josh and Albert, but it will be in 2016 or later, crippling the Angels thereafter when they owe the two combined $60 m a year . Before then look for incredible numbers for the two of them.
How do you know that Pujols' slow start was attempting to adjust to a new league and not him trying to press too hard to start hot? Prince Fielder did just fine coming to a new league. Fielder's post All-Star numbers were better, true, but he didn't have a learning curve. I don't think the "adjusting to a new league" theory has much merit. I don't think it's out of the question at all to see Hammy struggle and go into a funk at any time of the season.
Oh, and an addict can get drugs and alcohol in Texas every bit as much as California. Hammy would be just as likely to relapse in Texas as California. I do believe the kindred christian spirit he now has there in Pujols will be a help to Hammy, and I wish him the best, but I also hope he gets some golden sombreros against the Rangers.
Many in the know argue that lineup protection is just a myth. Here are a few such cases:BPHBTSabernomics
I found one study from about 9 years ago (linked from the HBT article) that claimed a very small increase in a rather small sample size, but most things I've run across suggest we shouldn't put a whole lot of stock in lineup protection ideas.
A couple of add'l points about park effects:
1) wRC+ is park adjusted, so in theory, it accounts for park effects. However, I'm not sure if Fangraphs does the adjustments based on general park effects or park effects by handedness. If it's based on general park effects, then the adjustment would be very inaccurate for parks that affect lefties and righties very differently. In any case, it seems clear to me that park adjustments for wRC+ must miss something. They may be fairly accurate for most players. But their are some players who have home/away splits over large samples that are extreme and way greater than the avg. player (e.g., Ian Kinsler and Justin Upton). Now, it could be that for pychological reasons, these players simply hit much better at home, and they would hit better at home no matter where they played. But I suspect that it's due to the player and the park being a perfect fit.
2) For anyone who wants to know the details of how Fangraphs calculates park adjustments, here's the link:
there's more to splits than just park factors. kinsler hits just as many home runs on the road but doesn't walk nearly as much. what does that tell you?
I'm guessing that a lot of the issue on Kinsler's away walk rate is that I'm betting that the Angels, M's and especially Oakland stadiums really depress walk totals. They have a pitching friendly park which rewards throwing balls in the zone and Oakland in particular allows a lot of foul balls to get caught that should be 15 rows back.
Year-1, I think Hamilton's level of motivation will negate the park factors. I think we could very realistically see the MVP race come down to Mike Trout vs. Josh Hamilton, with Trout again being the more deserving maid of honor. Trout will likely generate more WAR, by at least two wins, but Hamilton will have the far more impressive HR/RBI totals -- you know, the kind of shit baseball writers look at to determine value.
I'm not trying to overlook the suppression Anaheim's park will bring, but if you can imagine what type of production Hamilton would theoretically have put up if he didn't take about 2.5 months last year, and you might be looking at a post-steroid era 60 HR/160 RBI season. In Anaheim, next year, I could see a .310/42/122 triple crown line, and I'm not trying to be overly dramatic about that.
I really think he wants to prove to Texas that he was worth it.
* take off
"kinsler hits just as many home runs on the road"
Kinsler has the same # of PAs at home and on the road. But he has 80 HRs at home and 63 on the road. So Kinsler has hit 27% more HRs at home than on the road. He gets a lot of "cheap" HRs over our short left field wall.
Kinsler also has nearly 50% more doubles at RBIA than on the road. He's a completely different player at home. RBIA is the perfect fit for him.
Good premise... but, I think you're discounting the fact that, when Josh gets the ball into the air, it usually doesn't "just clear" the fence... it sails well beyond. "Park Adjustment" doesn't really have anything to do with Josh.
If you're hoping he'll crash, burn and bury his face in the first baseline sand, you're probably more likely to get it just because his career is on a serious downturn than thinking he'll get frustrated with a deeper park.
But, dreaming is nice, isn't it.
"Kinsler also has nearly 50% more doubles at RBIA than on the road. He's a completely different player at home. RBIA is the perfect fit for him."
there's nothing about rangers ballpark that would result in more hits becoming doubles. a park like safeco would probably allow more doubles and triples. also, rbia's left field is pretty average in terms of home run factor. the park becomes hitter-friendly in right-center field when the occasional jet stream appears.
Which Kinsler almost never hits to.
If David Murphy's "Kindred Christian Spirit" apparently didn't help Josh much here in 2012, why should Pujols be a help to Mr Hamilton in that regard?
Because Pujols is one of the greatest players to ever pick up a bat.
Mark, and he one of the more cerebral, and that is one point in why he needed an adjustment and learning a new set of pitchers. This does not necessarily apply to the John DALY approach, 'grip it and rip it', which is Fielder, and for that matter the biggest adherent, Josh, who also cross over from NL to AL was little adjusting. As far as location and backsliding percentage encounters, time will tell. Andy, tell Belte that theory. His numbers in Seattle was not all that bad, aside for injury limitations in the 4th and 5th years of his contract, and not as differing form Boston or Texas, except he was not protected at Seattle, And I see the response would be the location. Yes, and that explains why, when Griffey and A. Rod hit back-to-back, they could hardly get past 20 hrs and 80 rbis. I, do agree that a homerun or double by the outfielders, is an out in another stadium, and a ball does travel further in Texas or Southern California then in Seattle or Detroit, but this has more to do with climatic conditions than the stadium itself. And another point to be made for line up protection, is after the catcher before a game goes through the opposing line up with that day's starter, says ' do not lett so-and-so beat you', so when that one so-and-so steps up, the starter bares down if the game was on the line, or in example, Barry Bonds just walks him. But when so-and-so becomes three, four , five or more players in a given line up, that asks a lot of a starter; and by the logic that it does not matter as far as line up protection, or perhaps another idiomatic phrase should be used, then it does not matter to be concerned at such level of those three, four, five hitters over that one danger that you can just pitch around.And a finak classic example, it is the bottom of the 9th, the score is 4 to 2 with the bases loaded, and Barry comes to the plate. And because he is protected/ unprotected you go right after him, and that explains that a given manager would never intentionally walk him in that situation.
"a park like safeco would probably allow more doubles and triples. also, rbia's left field is pretty average in terms of home run factor."
Fangraphs disagrees. Their park adjustment for doubles by righties at Safeco is 99 and for triples it's 95. At RBIA, the park adjustment for doubles is 104 and for triples it's 120.
Also, the park adjustment for HRs by righties at RBIA is 107, making RBIA the 5th most generous park in terms of home runs for righties.
Notify me of follow-up comments via email.