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Forum > There is Hope for 100 Wins

The hypothetical that will never happen but should:
1. Trade Profar ($500k), Olt ($500k), Buckel, Cruz ($10.75m), and Moreland ($500k) for Stanton ($500k).
- creates $11.75 mil of space (CBS Sports reported he's available for 3 top prospects and 2 additional players)
2. Trade Gentry at ($500k) and Perez ($500k) for Dickey at ($5m)
- takes up $4 mil of space
3. Sign Bourn for 4 years at $60 mil. (AAV of $15m)
4. Sign Swisher for 4 years at $60 mil. (AAV of $15m)
- Yes, I know those figures for Bourn and Swisher are a little moderate. $15 million is an easy number and is very possible given the market. Just work with it.

Taking the -$6 mil in savings from Young and Soria's $4 mil salary, this is an increase of $20.25 mil on payroll. That puts the total 2013 payroll at $130.9, which is what the FO wants...or something.

So, here we go: (All WAR figures are based on last year)

OF - According to Fangraphs, the Rangers had a combined 12.4 WAR in our OF. Assuming we roll with a Murphy (4 WAR), Bourn (6.4 WAR), Stanton (5.8 WAR) trio, our OF would have a combined 16.2 WAR from those 3 guys. That's nearly 4 additional wins and pretty safe assumption since Murphy will probably fall a little and Stanton would probably do better at RBIA, not to mention he only played in 123 games. Our defense would be arguably much better too. (+4 WAR to OF)

1B - The Rangers had a combined 1 WAR for the position. Insert Swisher and his 3.9 WAR, which was the same as Pujols, and that adds an additional 3 wins to the position. (+3 WAR to 1B)

#5 SP - The move for Dickey is pretty much a wash WAR wise. If you add all of Dempster, Oswalt, Perez, Feliz, and Grimm's innings together you get 222 IP at a 3.3 WAR. I know it's an inexact science but if anything, it provides stability, depth and upside. Especially when Feliz and Colby return. Dickey had a 4.6 WAR last year, but I would bet it's closer to 3 if he played in RBIA. (0 WAR at #5 SP)

DH - No more Young (-1.4 WAR) in the lineup, that's easily an addition 2 wins if our DH provides just .5 WAR. That's highly likely. (+2 WAR at DH).

Bullpen- We lost Koji and possibly Adams. They each had a .9 WAR. There's still a chance we sign Adams and hopefully some of the other arms step up (Ross). Soria could make it all better when he returns, as well as Feliz. Worst case if we don't sign anyone else, we lose a win. (-1 WAR in the BP)

Total: +8 WAR for $20.25 mil. If you base 1 WAR at $6 mil with inflation, that's $28 mil worth of savings.That puts us at 101 wins, and if you read the saber article on the Angels today...that puts them around 92 wins. This doesn't take into account any improvements from Kinsler or drop off's at catcher. Assuming both happen, we were only a 1.5 WAR at catcher last year, 100 wins is a pretty accurate number if our starting pitching hovers around what they did last year.

Now this will probably never happen, but one can hope...or dream like I will tonight. Goodnight.

(All WAR figures courtesy of Fangraphs and salary numbers from the BBTIA article last month via Cot's Baseball Contracts)

http://www.cbssports.com/mlb/blog/danny-knobler/21261229/marlins-dont-plan-to-trade-stanton-but-teams-are-calling-and-there-is-a-sky-high-price

December 13, 2012 at 11:31 PM | Unregistered CommenterP1 Stefen

You HOPE that we sell out 90% of our good young players for 4 years of mediocrity? I was with you blasting Eric for being a douche in the other thread, but this is pure stupidity.

We will have a down year or two, so what? Learn from Boston, don't overpay for mediocre/old talent.

December 13, 2012 at 11:59 PM | Unregistered CommenterDavid__D

I'm not sure how mediocre a 100 win team is, but to each their own. Bourn is 29 and 4 years isn't at all bad for a guy averaging 5+ WAR when healthy. Swisher is 31 and is one of the most consistent players in the game. His game is built around OBP which is exactly what we need. He won't lose that in 4 years. That being said I'm perfectly ok with rebuilding, it just doesn't fit the current MO of where this franchise is.
If we're going to rebuild, then we need to do it right. Not be an 80 win team for 2 years then come back. I doubt ownership views it like that either. We have an Ace, a great #2, Belte, Kinsler, Elvis and Nathan at our core. They have a $110+ payroll. Mediocrity isn't accepted when your shelling out that kind of money, nor is it accepted by the fans who just gave you the 2nd best attendance in all of baseball last year. We're talking about a team who would go from talking with virtually every big name out there, to rebuilding. While people on here may understand it, the vast majority of the fans will go insane. The casual fan was pissed that Young was traded. Come on now. Anything that brings the thought of Hicks cheap ass back is a bad PR move...and that's where we're headed.

December 14, 2012 at 12:35 AM | Unregistered CommenterP1 Stefen

Eh, I like Stanton, but Profar, Olt, Buckel, Cruz and Moreland feels like a bad trade - particularly if Profar is going to be the monster we've been told he will be.

I'd say sign Swisher or Bourn - leaning toward Swisher though - and Edwin Jackson. What really worries me is catcher. We can't seriously be thinking of running a Soto/Whiteside combo at catcher are we? I'd probably rather the Rangers go re-sign Torrealba if that's the case, or ask Pudge to suit up.

After watching the Nats last year, when Wilson Ramos went down for the season and Jesus Flores didn't do much of anything, they brought up these two kids Sandy Leon and Jhonatan Solano. They need some work on different parts of their defense - Leon with throwing runners out and Solano with putting his body in front of pitches in the dirt - but they both had some pop and I liked what I saw from each of them. Now that the Nats will be running with Ramos/Suzuki, I wouldn't mind making the right trade for one of them - particularly Solano - assuming the price is right. Nats biggest need is probably the bullpen, so maybe we have something there they'd like. The other option, is working a trade for Mauer in which we somehow get Minnesota to pick up most of his contract. Or sign AJ Pierzynski if we think he can repeat last year's performance, but there's no way we can run with what we have behind the plate, right? Right???

December 14, 2012 at 12:38 AM | Unregistered CommenterDan

Why didn't we resign Koji? He's only getting from Boston slightly more than what he got from us. Did he not want to pitch in Texas heat anymore?

December 14, 2012 at 12:42 AM | Unregistered CommenterDan

I like the optimism, but this is pretty farfetched. I don't see Swisher as a 4 WAR player if he was an everyday 1B. Maybe 3 WAR, tops. I like his bat in the lineup, but more through his versatility of playing 1B/RF/DH.

The proposed trade for Stanton is quite a bit, but even at that I would doubt the Marlins take it. They would surely demand the only player the Rangers don't want to get rid of, and if you take Profar's name out of the bundle and exchange it with Andrus/Sardinas, the package weakens quite a bit. A problem the Rangers are dealing with if they wanted to make an impact move for Stanton/Price is that, although they have an exceptionally strong farms system, it's pretty bare in the upper levels. I'd be fine letting Leonys Martin, Martin Perez and Mike Olt all go for Stanton or Price, but I don't think any of them have enough star potential to warrant the return. Perez is more like a MORP, Martin could develop into a solid regular, and Mike Olt is probably going to strikeout a ton in the pros.

I just don't see very many avenues we can take to get this team up to 95 wins.

December 14, 2012 at 12:48 AM | Unregistered Commentereric reining

I don't know what you think you could get Stanton for, but I was thinking that kind of wasn't enough. My preference would be to swap out Elvis for Profar though. Other than either of our SS's, Olt is blocked, Buckel has a #2-3 ceiling at best, Moreland is meh/replaceable, and Cruz is a declining player with 1 remaining year whose trade value is based on the ALCS.

If that trade gets Stanton, you do it.

December 14, 2012 at 12:53 AM | Unregistered CommenterP1 Stefen

Sorry, that was directed towards Dan.

December 14, 2012 at 12:54 AM | Unregistered CommenterP1 Stefen

Koji didn't sign because of Darvish. Koji thought that Yu was somewhat disrespectful of his heritage.
Rather Old School ethics, but thatz the Japanese bit. Im sure there's a story writen somewhere by now.

December 14, 2012 at 12:57 AM | Unregistered CommenterHubZ

I love when people blindly cite increases in WAR without considering other factors, maybe team chemistry to start. Statistics explain a lot in baseball, but just because on paper we increase our WAR by 8 WAR doesn't mean its going to happen.

Trading away Olt, Gentry, Perez, Profar, Cruz for hopeful short-term success is obviously not in the front office's plans, the only reason the Rangers are in our current position is by building up our young talent.

December 14, 2012 at 1:36 AM | Unregistered CommenterTex-Lex

I don't think the team you put together is a 100 win team. Do the WAR calculations for last years Oakland A's and Angels (BEFORE last season). Weren't you the one saying WAR isn't everything in the other thread?

I do believe the Rangers fan base is smart enough to understand you can't go to the World Series every year.

Hubz: source?

December 14, 2012 at 1:40 AM | Unregistered CommenterDavid__D

I love when people blindly cite increases in WAR without considering other factors, maybe team chemistry to start. Statistics explain a lot in baseball, but just because on paper we increase our WAR by 8 WAR doesn't mean its going to happen.

Maybe you're right, but is it not also a mistake to ignore WAR?

You can have all the team chemistry, leadership in the clubhouse, intangibles, and whatever else that's not quantified. I'll take the talent.

December 14, 2012 at 5:26 AM | Unregistered Commentereric reining

I have to admit that last night I was on the cliff and willing to blow up the roster (hypotheticly) but today in the cold light of day, I really dislike this plan and my plan for blowing up the roster. I understand the logic of not signign anyone and rolling like we are now. It makes more sense to let the youngsters play and see what they can do. Look at what Oakland did last year with their young unproven talent. Everyone doubted them. Maybe we can surprise a few other people this year.

December 14, 2012 at 6:50 AM | Unregistered CommenterChuck

@Tex-Lex
You must be one of those people that were freaking out when Young was traded bc he was the #leadership glue for chemistry in the clubhouse. Surely he was not worth -2 wins and one of the worst DH's of all-time. That's just crazy talk right? For all intensive purposes, losing Hamilton will help the chemistry no matter who is in there. And I would argue against our success built around building our young talent. It's built around shrewd trades. I think the FO is guilty of over-valuing our prospects unfortunately. Perez, Borbon, E. Beltre, Moreland, Holland, and now hopefully not Olt. All of those guys were rumored to be the center piece of some great deals. Sell high. We did it with Smoak, look how he ended up. Now? Good luck. You can preach youth all day, which isn't a bad thing, but trusting the Rangers MO of passing up "sell high" deals for great players isn't as great as it sounds given the track record. JD has made some great moves, but take away the Texiera trade...and how good are we bc of OUR youth?

December 14, 2012 at 9:56 AM | Unregistered CommenterP1 Stefen

@HubZ: where's this bit about Koji thinking Darvish disrespected his heritage? I'm not sure about this.

December 14, 2012 at 10:01 AM | Unregistered CommenterAndy