I still have many replies to make on earlier posts in this thread. I hate that I have to work! I will get back to you....

There is so much to talk about here and this is IMPORTANT. The war of the worlds is at hand...and we are unprepared.

The AL West was the best division in baseball this year (no, it wasn't the AL East), and I'm not convinced it won't be next year, either. I expect regression by numerous players, but I also expect others to step up. I have a sneaking suspicion Trout will actually put up more than 10 fWAR next season. Not sure what to think about the A's, but I expect the Mariners to be better. The Blue Jays and Red Sox reloading is going to improve the AL East, even if the Yankees slouch (and at this point that looks inevitable, but, you know, it's the Yankees). Nevertheless, I expect our competition to be fierce like it was this year.

The Rangers aren't rebuilding, either. If anything, they're reloading. Rebuilding is what's going on in Houston.

I am still convinced this is a pitching era, and our chances of winning it all improve significantly with a 5th starter in which we have more confidence, right now, than Perez. Right now, he seems like an ideal long man/spot starter.

Josh, Upton, Swisher, etc. would be helpful, but...pitching, pitching, pitching. Pitching and defense.

Ok Andy, using the SF Ginats formula of pitching and defense. We are still a few arms and gloves back. We have a rotation of one #1 starter, 2 #2's and one #3 and a prospect as it stands right now. Sanchez is a #2 on a generous day. Dickey is an unknown in the AL. So getting an ACE is pretty much out of the question unless you are willing to trade one of the three best gloves we have (Profar, Andrus, and Beltre). Cruz is terible in RF, Murphy is average at best in LF, and Gentry is outstanding in CF part time, Martin is OJT ing for CF. Moreland and Kinsler are average depending on what day of the week you get Kinsler. Behind the plate you have Soto! So where exactly in all of that do we win with pitching and defense. Of course I have not even gotten to the reclamation project that we are calling a bullpen! No it is not time to panic. But suggesting that this team even has a chance to win like the Giants have two of the last three years or even like the Cards beat us with superior pitching and defense is not a tenable position. Of course, we could all be wrong and this could be the year where Harry, Holland, Yu, and Ogando all compete for the Cy Young, but the odds do not favor that. Harry is a good solid #2, depending on which Holland shows up to pitch that day you either get a #2 or #5, and Ogando has great potential assuming he can put it all together. We do need help in the rotation, we need to reload the bullpen, and we need some improvement in the outfield. Bringing in Josh to play LF and moving Murphy to RF will be an upgrade both offensivley and defensively. Profar playing 2B will help a lot. And Kins playing first with Moreland can only improve that defensive spot. beltre i am not worried about at all except keeping him healthy. Catcher is another spot that needs to be shored up with some defense. Maybe Soto gets motivated and rights the ship maybe not.

Henchmen argues, You didn't prove your argument. They lost Torii Hunter who played well above career norms and was a huge part of that offense. Trout had MLB #s better than his minor league numbers. Pujols turns at least 33 in a month. Trumbo and Morales don't really have positions. Their rotation is a mess. The bullpen still has questions. They have no farm system to make deadline deals. What have they done to get better in 2013? The Angels went all in for 2012 and fell on their face. Your move.

Peter Bourjos will replace Hunter, which might hurt the outfield a pinch offensively, though it gives the Angels speed to burn in the outfield. Tori wasn't the fastest guy at his age.

The Angels bullpen blew an American League-leading 47 saves the last two years. This offseason The Angels upgraded their bullpen big time. Now...it may be a strength. You may say the rotation is a mess, but Haren and Santana weren't helping last season. Greinke didn't pitch long enough to be a difference maker last season, so I don't really see them as having lost the guy. Blanton may be the walking archetype of unspectacular...but he's pretty reliable. His fly-ball propensities will work well in Anaheim.

From MLB.com: "As currently constructed, the quintet of Blanton, Hanson, Richards, Madson and Burnett are essentially replacing the quintet of Haren, Santana, Greinke, Walden and LaTroy Hawkins on the Angels' pitching staff. The combined 2012 WAR of the latter, using Baseball-Reference.com, was 1.5. The combined WAR of Blanton, Hanson and Burnett in 2012 was 0.4, with Madson posting a 2.0 WAR in his last full season in 2011 and Richards likely to get his first shot at being a full-time big league starter in 2013."

After park adjustments, the Angels had the most 2nd most prolific offense in the Majors last year even with Pujos struggling and with less than a full season of Trout. They are going to rake next season.

Fabius proclaims, Even if we suppose that the rest of the division will be better, we have to assume the Rangers will be too, if only because of the trust we can place in the FO, which hasn't done anything to make us think they'll won't make the team better by next April.

Sorry but I can point to a dozen JD mis-fires without stopping to catch my breath. He's a great GM. He's not God...and more than anything there are a limited array of options at his disposal.

If we re-sign Josh, it won't be a contract that kills us, because the FO won't overpay.

Huh? We could give Josh 80-90 mil and he could relapse before the season starts. Or miss a 100 game per year to any of a host of ailments. We absolutely could overpay. Signing Josh is an absolute flip of the coin. And his "play hard when I feel like it." could be toxic in the clubhouse, as I suspect it was in 2012.

We've had more than our share of playoff heartache, all of which only shows that we just need to be in contention at the end of September to have a chance, which is all we can expect.

I say we roll with youth and we'll still have a fighting chance. But we'll be in much better standing for a really big push in '14 through '20.

To me...if the Rangers are competitive next season...and I see them loading up atomics for coming seasons...and I get to watch kids like Profar, Olt and Martin play...I'd have a ball watching baseball in 2013.

Seriously, wouldn't that be more fun than last year?

I agree. It was fun to watch Feliz and Andrus when they were rookies.

Chuck writes, "I tend to agree JD seems to pull something out of the air every year. But the impact talent we need to get over the hump is dwindling fast."

Exactly. There were few options on the market and the impact choices are gone. Unless we renew w/Hamilton. (hope not).

Chuck continues, so the rules of the game have changed on Texas and the front office. My question is can they remain competitive in the new Free agent/Marketplace?

Competitive? Sure. But I think we'll need to have a season now or then where we hold back and reload. This is such a season.

Let me offer an analogy.

When you are a hitter there are sometimes you simply aren't going to get a pitch to hit. You might need to take a pitch along the outside corner and hope it's not called a strike.

And as a GM there are times when the best move....is no move. It's foolishness to swing away at something you can't put good wood on. Move along. So far that's what's been presented this offseason for JD. His options were to make a foolish move...or just lay back.

And this "laying back" might make the most sense for the balance of the offseason. Let the kids grow up. Get Martin out there in center. See what he can do. Let Gentry get a bigger sample of ABs. Ride with Profar and Olt.

If we are in the hunt at the trade deadline perhaps there will be something that makes sense to really take a swing at. And by then we'll have a better sense of the health and viability of Lewis and Feliz.

At the risk of gettting murdered, Profar actually makes sense. Sittign back and doing what I call "rebuilding" letting the kids play in 13 makes a little bit of sense to me. How else are we going to know what Perez, Grimm, Olt, Profar, Martin, Garcia, Beltre, and others have? Bu tletting them play in a couple of games in September? No. Throw them into the lineup and see what you have if you are not willing to trade them for a superstar you have to play them at some point. Which is why I don't disagree that much with KC's trade for Shields. They were not going to play Myers over Francuer, so if we are not going to play Profar over Kinsler or Andrus or move him to another position then we have to trade him. Which is not my choice. I say let the kid play 2B. Andrus is the shortstop, based on popularity alone Andrus is our Jeter. No he is not the offense but he is the "sparkplug" and the "Face" now that MY is gone. Throw Profar at 2B and move Kinsler either through a trade or to another position. Yes Perez has fallen out of favor but not too long ago he was the Second Coming of Santana. SO let's see what the kid can do pitching every 5 days, maybe he figures it out and becomes the #2 we need, the kid is only 21 right now. As for CF, Martin was signed for a good amount of cash and he needs to start producing now! Gentry can be moved or relegated to the 4th OF. Murphy is decent in LF and since there seems to be no kid in the wings waiting either resign Josh or roll with Murph. WHo knows what he will produce playing full time? Cruz IMO needs to be either the DH or traded. That mans glove is terrible. To me that is the glaring defensive need in the OF. Catcher needs to be addressed unless you are willing to bring up Zaneski from double A.

Chuck, Profar absolutely makes some sense. We have to set this thing up to be highly competitive for the next 5-10 years rather than focusing solely on replacing WAR from one season to the next.

My preference is to sign a starting pitcher rather than Josh Hamilton, even if we overpay slightly. If we succeed, Perez becomes your long-man and occasional starter (to keep arms fresh). If not, roll with Perez as #5.

Let Josh walk this year, move Nellie to DH, and start Murphy-Gentry-Martin in your outfield. Trade Elvis for a young C and start him from day one. Profar plays SS, Kinsler stays at 2B, and Olt/Moreland platoon at 1B. Garcia backs up your middle infield positions, Olt covers the corners, and Cruz can still play RF occasionally.

If we signed a starting pitcher to a 4-year deal (for example), we'd have the entire rotation under team control (assuming a Harrison extension gets done) for at least the next 4 seasons. That, to me, gives us the opportunity to trade pitching prospects to fill holes.

And the team payroll should be about the same as it is now (maybe less)....should ownership decide to up the payroll once the TV deal kicks in.

Yeah that makes a lot of sense Dan. I am by no means saying "blow up" the roster. But significant changes are already being made. We have guys that have been at Round Rock for two or three years now, are they really learnign anything new or are they blockign the way for other youngsters?

"Trade Elvis for a young C and start him from day one."

I'm trying to come up with such a catcher, and I can't. Who did you have in mind? Because he better be pretty damn good for 2 years of Elvis, which I still think is worth a little more than 3 years of Upton. Ugh, that's a terrible idea.

I know I am in the minority here but if you can somehow get Hamilton for 4/100 or so the window is propped open to win a WS for the duration of that contract. You risk overpaying by 10mm a year or so but that bat gives you some real wiggle room and you dont have a huge salary killing you when he is clearly over the hill. I like the deal on those numbers if you can get it.

If not, I dont really think this lineup is that scary. Who is on the rise on this team except for the improbable Adrian Beltre?

There has been some debate about the terminology...rebuild versus reload.

I'm not saying we give up on next year. No way. But we will begin next season without Lewis, Young, Napoli, Feliz, Adams, Uehara...and very possibly without Hamilton.

Kinzler faces position change. Cruz seems to be waning and nears free agency.

Rebuilding is upon us.

Ghost writes, I know I am in the minority here but if you can somehow get Hamilton for 4/100 or so the window is propped open to win a WS for the duration of that contract. You risk overpaying by 10mm a year or so but that bat gives you some real wiggle room and you dont have a huge salary killing you when he is clearly over the hill. I like the deal on those numbers if you can get it.

If not, I dont really think this lineup is that scary. Who is on the rise on this team except for the improbable Adrian Beltre?
------------
Martin could be scary. ProfarMVP could be. Olt could be. Kids can grow into monsters.

I think we all are enticed with Josh. But I suspect he is a power drink that we will need to learn to live without.

Andy, I really don't know which young Cs might be available in a deal, but, yes, it would have to be something significant. I'm not sure how close Travis d'Arnaud is, but he's a name I've heard before (haven't looked into him much, though). I'm sure some folks here would have some ideas on the individual better than I.

Ghost, I don't think Hamilton at 4y/100M is a payroll killer, but I assume the owners/FO would be flexible with the payroll following a signing like that. As for how "scary" the lineup is, I think that's a bit overrated as a litmus test. Manufacturing runs isn't scary, but it gets the job done if you have a good pitching staff and solid defense. A Rangers offense without Hamilton and Napoli would have less power, but it could produce significantly better defense, more stolen bases, etc....things that aren't flashy but can still be effective. That being said, I don't expect to fully replace their production from last season.

Profar, rebuild or reload is all semantics, but it doesn't really matter (says the guy who brought it up in the first place). Whatever you call it, it's not geared toward a one-and-done championship run; it's about sustainability. We've got young guys we've invested time and money in....that we've flatly refused to trade.....let's see what they can do.

That being said, if the Rangers want a budget in the $150M range, then I see no reason not to spend some of it (either in FA or via trades that increase payroll) if it makes the team more competitive in the short-run without jeopardizing the long-term.

@ProfarMVP...."a power drink we will have to learn to live without" I see what you meant there. Josh may not be the same hitter we witnessed in the beginning of the season without the power drinks.

Ozzie, I suspect josh can adjust to life without caffeine. But the guy seems like chew less tobacco or a triple red bull to our franchise. His production comes with risks, downsides and you only wonder when the crash is going to hit.

So many highs and lows with drama queens.

JD did it all perfect this offseason. Sincerely. Now it's time to grab a board and ride the wave...of youth.

The LA Times has an excellent article on the finances and business plans of the Dodgers.

http://touch.latimes.com/#section/-1/article/p2p-73712019/

A few items struck me as especially noteworthy. First, the team is highly leveraged. Oddly, the new debt was provided by insurance companies controlled by Guggenheim. I am not at all knowledgeable of the investment rules for insurance companies but lending money to an affiliate appears like a dangerous conflict of interest.

Second, the LAD group intends to make the team the centerpiece of a huge entertainment empire. They are considering building new stadiums for the baseball team and an NFL team, and demolishing the existing stadium for real estate development.

Last, there does not appear to be a lot of baseball experience at Guggenheim.

Very few teams can compete with a team planning to spend on the scale of LAD, which will make the Steinbrenner Yankees look like pikers. These are smart, rich owners but I believe their reach will exceed their grasp.

2013 is going to be the year to purge Ron Washington. The Rangers will let Ron play his small ball...and that will be his undoing. Small ball is just...small.

As Billy Beane puts it,
You’re simply not going to win in this league unless you hit a bunch of home runs no matter what anyone tells you. I’ve been saying that for 10 years.

And I'd suggest that's far more true for games in Arlington, where you are often going to need 6, 8 or 10 runs to win.

But look at how it played out. In 2012 away from their run inflationary and run suppressive parks...who had the power bats in the division?

Road Homers:
Angels (2nd in all baseball) 105
A's (3rd in all baseball) 103
Rangers (9th in all baseball) 92

And the Angels just took Josh from our roster and added him to their own.

Profar and Olt can both help us with our emerging power outage. But we need a manager who won't take home run swings away from our boys.

Profar,

This is why we need Justin Upton. I'm not going to take everything Bill Beane says like it's gospel, but he is on to something. The way I see it, if his quote is actually out there somewhere, it's less real than what he says behind closed doors -- which we will never know about.

The Rangers had two major things working against them in 2013: Michael Young and the fact that we were irrationally conservative on the base paths. Michael Young is no longer here to take 4-5 at bats away, per game, so that should be a major plus moving forward. But as far as stealing bases is concerned, the Rangers will have to change in that department in 2013, or Ron Washington will be unemployed heading into 2014.

I could be totally off base here (get it?), but did we not steal exactly 92 bases in 2012? 92 goddamn bases. With Ian Kinsler, Elvis Andrus and Craig Gentry, that number is completely unacceptable.

2013 features a projected lineup of Kinsler/Andrus/Profar and some combination of Gentry/Martin. As a team, we're going to have to steal something like 150 bases in 2013 to make the offense work, under the assumption that no significant bat enters out lineup. Even though I think we needed Nick Swisher, or need Justin Upton, there is a scenario that works where we can still win 90 games with the roster we have intact. It's going to take a ton of stolen bases.

Defense and pitching, and speed, is what Ron Washington wants. Jon Daniels is giving that to him. Let's see what he does with it.

Rebuld my _ _ _ _. The Rangers are just getting started. Just kick back and take notes.............

Eric, I agree we should have signed Swisher. Should we sign Lohse?