What is your opinion of the A.J. Pierzynski signing?
MJH on accountability
The OP used both the term "rebuild" and "reload," which are different animals altogether, IMO. Rebuilding (selling off expensive assets, acquiring youth, etc.) isn't what's called for here. Reloading, on the other hand, would mean integrating some prospects into the mix and using cash to sign FAs (rather than trading prospects for them).
At this point, I think JD should focus on signing a mid-rotation guy (or two if we don't re-sign Hamilton) and dealing pitching prospects (which you won't need as much if you sign pitchers in FA) for an upgrade at C. I also like the idea of Upton in RF and Cruz at DH (replaced internally after 2013), but you can't trade a bunch of prospects for him AND have enough to deal for a C upgrade. So I'm fine with trading Andrus for Upton (assuming we won't be able to re-sign Elvis).
I am not here to say the Rangers can't win the War of the Worlds with their current core. They might.
But I emphatically believe we can win more ball games over the next 8-10 years with the following plan:-Trade Elvis now...even for young pitching or for prospects. Maybe particularly for pitching prospects.-Don't sign Josh-No knuckle ballers in Arlington
Profar, I agree with you, but I don't consider that a rebuild. Trading Andrus when you have a ML-ready prospect (with a higher ceiling) behind him, it makes sense to trade him now when his value is higher than it will be as he's approaching free agency. I don't think we particularly need pitching prospects for him, though. If we don't sign Hamilton (and I assume you're on-board with letting Cruz walk next offseason), we'll desperately need young players in the outfield.
Rich P opines, "The A's present a consistent threat....if Parker, Milone, Griffin, Blackley turn out to be this generations Zito, Mulder & Hudson. We will see. They had two guys with a decent OBPCT. But was it it. I don't see anything on A's roster beyond Cespedes that I would want."
At first glance I think many fans feel the same way. But that team money balls its way to crazy wins. That organization gets it. They platoon like crazy. They've got something with Cespedes, Balfour, the young arms.
But it's more than that.
Oakland was near the top of the league in road power...just 4 homers behind the Yankees. (11 more than we had). And their offense overall was flat better than ours, when away from reality-skewing home parks. They were 7th in all of baseball at 100 wRC+. We were 14th with a wRC+ of 94. What the hell you say? That's right. We were well behind.
I'm talking about road offensive production, which is likely more indicative of a team's true abilities.
Calm down on the war of the worlds talk, the little Rangers are better today than they were at any point last yr. Yu has a yr of MLB experiance under his belt, Profar, Olt and Perez have had a taste of the big leagues, Kins and Cruz were really bad last yr and are due for a bounce back. No MY means more playing time and at bats for someone who has earned it. (hopefully Wash understands the earned it concept again now that MY is gone)3 of your 4 starting pitchers right now are All star caliber and if Holland pulls his head out of his ars all 4 could be on the all star ballet this yr. (I hear you coughing about that statement but Harry and Ogando have already been Alstars Yu will be this yr) I would expect JD to get another starter (Loshe, Anabell or even Ed Jackson) for that last spot in the rotation. Also he'll either pull the trigger on Josh or Upton to finish this thing out.As for the rest of the AL west; Houston and Seattle are houston and seattle fighting it out for the 4 and 5th spots in the division. Angels have trout and weaver and not much else! Pujlos is old Wells is worthless and Trumbo doen't have a place to play. I can see a solid 3rd place finish for them againthe A's are the wild card in this whole thing "how much will they regress?" Redick and Cecpedes (sp?) were rookies last yr and now the book is out on them same with the starting pitchers. This team came out of no where to win the west last yr they aren't sneaking up on anyone this yr. this team could will it all or finish behind Houston you just never know about the A's.
I'm not worried about the west this yr I think JD and the crew have things set up just fine!
DDan writes, "At this point, I think JD should focus on signing a mid-rotation guy (or two if we don't re-sign Hamilton) and dealing pitching prospects (which you won't need as much if you sign pitchers in FA)"
When have we ever been able to bring in quality free agent pitching? That doesn't happen until we get a roof.
We have to acquire arms via trades and via the farm. And right now our farm doesn't have many arms that are close to MLB ready.
We can find free agent bats next offseason that will eagerly come hit in Arlington. We need to convert Andrus to young pitching.
Profar, you really just made my point. If we don't have any pitching prospects who are that close to being ML-ready, you can either try to sign them or trade for them. The problem with signing guys is that you have to overpay. The problem with trades is that you have to give up several prospects to get one close to MLB-ready....and that team will value their pitcher more than we will (because said pitcher won't project as well in the Ballpark as in most other places; hitters are the opposite, BTW)....and we'll then have to (likely) overpay to keep that pitcher in Texas.
We're going to overpay for pitching one way or another...except developing our own. But, as you said, we don't have much that is "MLB ready." If you overpay enough, you'll get FA pitchers to sign here, and that will open up a lot of other opportunities to generate value by trading for hitters.
Huh? That doesn't sound like smart GM logic at all.
We can likely get a hitter to come to Arlington for 90 cents on the dollar. It's a great career move for a hitter to come to Texas. That's where you use free agency. That's smart money.
But we can't seem to get a pitcher to come to Arlington for even $1.50 on the dollar. It's a bad career move for a pitcher to come to Arlington. So it's quite simple if we will just admit the realities. We need to plan on trading for pitchers or growing our own.
Andrus is our most obvious commodity right now. He should be converted to pitching assets.
Even if we suppose that the rest of the division will be better, we have to assume the Rangers will be too, if only because of the trust we can place in the FO, which hasn't done anything to make us think they'll won't make the team better by next April.
If the team is better with our post-MY options, that'll help.
If we re-sign Josh, it won't be a contract that kills us, because the FO won't overpay.
And unless we expect Yu to have a sophomore slump (not likely IMO after his second half last year), we've got our TORP. When was the last time we had a true ace for a full season?
We may not be where we need to be right now, and we can speculate. But the FO will make the best moves possible.
We've had more than our share of playoff heartache, all of which only shows that we just need to be in contention at the end of September to have a chance, which is all we can expect.
We shouldn't trade Elvis for just anything. Just because we have a potential all-star coming up doesn't mean we should kick him out with no return.
We have Olt, too. Should we try to offload Beltre? His contract is so expensive. Olt would play 3B at a fraction of the cost.
I'm not interested in trading Elvis for anything but an established major leaguer, or at least one that's promising and already has some experience. I don't want someone that can't contribute at the beginning of the year. I imagine the Rangers feel that way, too.
Profar, the one problem with how you are factoring in run scoring "Away" as a valid filter to remove "Reality skewing ballparks" IS:
The Rangers road travel to Oakland and Oakland road travels to Arlington, this creates an inverse bias
I agree with the basic premise that we get more bang for our FA buck with hitters than pitchers. That's not really up for debate.
But it doesn't exactly work that way, does it? Beltre is really the only FA we've signed recently, and we didn't get a discount because he wanted to hit in Arlington. We were able to sign Joakim Soria this season and Joe Nathan last season, but I don't think we dramatically overpaid for either. (Admittedly, relievers are a different animal than starters, but the point remains valid.)
Further, the big picture is still the same, whether it's trades, draft, or free agency: hitters will have better value in the Ballpark than pitchers. So when you look at potential trades, for example, you usually have to factor in that the pitcher we want will be more highly valued by his team than by the Rangers (because of his home park versus the Ballpark). That means we'll have to either (a) give a package of hitters beyond what other teams would (i.e., overpay), or (b) trade pitching prospects that would offset the ballpark-value disparity.
But after we've traded for that pitcher, when FA arrives, other teams are likely willing to pay him more to pitch for them, figuring that his numbers will be better in their park than in ours. So, again, we have to overpay to keep that pitcher.
I tend to prefer overpaying via cash than prospects, if possible. So I ultimately would rather overspend on an FA pitcher than overpay via trade.
All that being said, I don't think you can definitively prove your premise any more than I can my own, so it's ultimately just a difference of opinion.
I disagree with trading Andrus I'd rather see a middle infield of Andrus and profar invest money in them, kinsler i feel like is more tradable i like him he plays the game the right way but he's to long ball happy get rid of him and moreland bring in a stronger 1st base candidate or let Olt develop into the player he's supposed to be. You can kiss the upton deal good bye Shields was supposed to be apart of the trade that brought him here and thats not happening now so i think you have to sign hammy and consider signing bourn as a true lead off man. I don't think we need to trade the farm to get better we have a ton of good young pitching talent let the mature and develop you saw what happened in Oakland when it goes right. We still have a championship caliber team right now why tear the farm apart? This is just my opinion may be dumb but this is what I think sounds good
- Kinsler is not more tradable. His contract is more than most teams would want to spend on a 2B.- Who would you propose for this "stronger 1st base candidate"?- Bourn is a Gentry type with more offense but nothing like Hamilton. Paying the salary he will ultimately command is probably a bad idea for the Rangers, especially when they have 2 guys on their active roster whose primary position is CF. Bourn is probably not a good fit for Texas.- Oakland had a bunch of major-league-ready pitchers. We don't. Perez and Grimm are probably closest, and they still need work. Things don't usually work out like they did in Oakland this year, where in a year in which you probably weren't expected to contend, all your rookies meet or exceed expectations. That probably won't happen with Perez and Grimm this year.- This is probably not a "championship caliber team" right now. As currently constructed, I'd bet most people would predict the Rangers to win about 85 games, give or take a few. Even with about 90 wins, that's hardly enough to assure a playoff spot with the division the way it currently stands. The Rangers would probably need a ton of good breaks to make the postseason in 2013 if they make no other moves.- Is your period key broken? You don't seem to use it very much.
I'm sorry i wasn't aware we were being graded, I'm trying to multi task my apologies! The level of Douchebaggery that you exhibited was unnecessary. And you make great points that is why those are just my opinions and why I'm not a GM
So the world is ending, the Rangers suck, and we should just trade away everyone right?
What was douchey? The period comment? It's just a joke. Lighten up.
There's nothing wrong with stating your opinions, that's what this forum is for - discussion. Feel free to respond.
Sorry it's Monday therefore any joke or light hearted jab will be taken as a decleration of war! Maybe try on Tuesday? but sorry I apologize shouldn't have got sensitive.
'sokay. Sorry if I went a little overboard. I have a penchant for teasing.
But to correct myself, I should have said Kins is more expendable. I understand that his contract is gonna hurt any trade possibility but i could think of a few teams and players to plug in at 1st. The Brew Crew is shopping Corey Hart he could probably adjust to first. I believe the Royals have also listened to offers on Butler. I just feel like there are better options than Moreland and Kins, even if it means trading for prospects or bulpen help and letting Olt prove his worth. Once again just my opinion. But i will not doubt JD or the front office they always do the right thing
I tend to agree JD seems to pull something out of the air every year. But the impact talent we need to get over the hump is dwindling fast. It just seems to me that Greinke's agent treated us like a two dollar hooker on Saturday night, then the Rays used us to rob KC for Shields. Granted nothing against those teams, they did what anyone else would do in their position. But why is JD allowing us to be used in that way? Unless he never really wanted those players? I have my doubts about Upton as well. Is JD working some magic that has not even hit the presses yet? Could be. But more likely is this is a rebuild or retool year for Texas. You have to think we are not going to sneak up on anyone ever again. Too many people looked at Texas as a joke now they do not, so the rules of the game have changed on Texas and the front office. My question is can they remain competitive in the new Free agent/Marketplace?
You don't go into "rebuild" mode with a roster that is significantly the same as the one you went to 3 straight playoffs with and two world series with. Furthermore, this is compounded by the fact that the Halos and A's will not perform as well as they did last year. Think about it as everyone is going to regress to their respective means.
The AL West was the best division in baseball last year. The A's had one INCREDIBLE run of quality pitching with timely bats. I hate to use superlatives and "meta-big-picture" perspectives when we have such great stats at our disposal, but the A's flipped "heads" 8 times out of 10. Meaning? It likely won't happen again. Their pitching won't be as good... Ryan Cook won't have ungodly stuff, Balfour won't cuss his way into saves, they lose McCarthy (who is vastly underrated in O.co)....etc.
The Halos won't be a "tale of two halves" again next year. Trout won't break 10WAR again, Pujols wont bat .200 for two months. Trumbo won't go HAM for a couple months then fade into oblivion. Furthermore, the Halos have many more questions about their starting pitching now. Blanton is subtraction by addition and we have no idea about Richards.
I'll dive into this more once I'm finished with finals, but pump your brakes, the AL West isn't the powerhouse you're envisioning. You're thinking of the NL West.
les writes, The key to the WEST may rest with Hamilton's signing, with the Rangers or Seattle. With the Rangers, a 90+ win team remains, but if some unlikely event Seattle signs Josh, a NEW ORDER may be realized.A Josh signing might help a lot in the short term. But I can't give a fresh big contract to a guy with so many uncertainties. My hunch is that we could be negotiating with Josh solely to make it easier to get a friendly deal done with Arizona for Upton.
les adds, iIF the Rangers want a 5th starter, call the DODGERS: CAPUANO, HARANG, LILLY are all available now after adding GRIENKE and RYUGood suggestion.
As stated in another colum, most AL teams have regressed to an extent of being equal to most, except Detroit.Tampa Bay always gels into a contender, whomever they throw on the field. Yes, AL teams might have won 57%over the NL teams... LAST YEAR. We know who the Beast are and they're all in the NL. Pitching dominates NL.This is not a Rangers rebuilding year, but certainly improvements are necessary, to compete/WIN the World Series.I'm not in Panic Mode, but itz ALL about Pitching.
I've repeatedly used the term, "War of the World" not only because of how good the West is shaping up to be...but also to think about this beyond a one-year battle.
What is best for this team over the next 6 to 10 years? If we continue to stay young and financially nimble...this team could be a juggernaut.
Jettisoning our best prospects for a #3 veteran pitcher and/or a questionable Upton...is not what we need to be doing now.
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