BIG Change?
Wash is going to manage a revised Ranger team in 2013.
From what I'm seeing, it's being built to "Win Now", with a
major focus on young talented home growns & young FA's.
Sure itz "NOW", but also built young/strong for a 4+ year focus.

Consensus~ Wash MUST find a new leadoff, over Ian Kinsler.

That to me, says the front office has NOT slapped RW's hand,
or they would have found a CF'r, over the Martin/Gentry combo.
FO also seems to be hellbent on keeping Elvis through 2013 season.

Hard to make a lineup, considering the new speculations, but I doubt
any new changes would involve a qualified leadoff from trade or FA.

Who's going to be OUR Ranger lead off man during the 2013 season?

Elvis

I like Elvis as leadoff.

For me it's not so straight forward as to has more value between Upton or Andrus. I know for the trade itself the value comparison matters in terms of returns. However, I find it hard to argue with the notion that Profar at SS, Upton in RF and Kinsler at 2B > ((Profar in the Minors or mostly riding the pine + Andrus at SS) OR (Profar at 2B, Andrus at SS and Kinsler at 1B or RF)).

Honestly, I think the hold up of getting Upton is actually due to other variables. Such an example would be having RW as the manager, Andrus gone and MY still on the roster - guess who makes regular appearances at SS? I think once MY is gone, the Upton deal gets done unless they are working on another deal involving Andrus such as obtaining a #1 starter or something along those lines.

Tom Tango's analysis of the optimal lineup concludes that the leadoff man should be one of the top 2 or 3 hitters on the team. The reason is that the leadoff man gets more PAs than anyone else. (The top 3 hitters on the team should bat 1, 2, and 4.) Conventional wisdom suggesting that the leadoff man can be a poor hitter as long as he's fast is wrong. Elvis is a below avg. hitter. Plus, he doesn't walk at a high rate. He shouldn't be the leadoff man even if the Rangers don't sign Hamilton or Upton.

I suppose I could have added who I feel should lead off... I think I'm a biased fan of Gentry, at least for now. I'd like to see what he can do on lead off if even only leading off against lefties.

Leonys Martin. Elvis will be traded.

Nah. Pretty sure IK will still be hitting leadoff. I don't expect another horrible downyear from him in 2013. Besides, do you REALLY think Wash is going to put an inexperienced player (Gentry or Martin) or his best "sacrifice bunt" piece (if he's still on the roster) in the 1 hole?

I dont.

Who knows what the Rangers will look like in 2013. Assuming no Hamilton, Young or Upton. It looks like this:

SS-Andrus, 2B-Profar 3B-Beltre, DH-Cruz, RF-Murphy, LF-Kinsler, 1B-Moreland/Olt, C-Soto, CF-Gentry/Martin

With Hamilton and Upton

SS-Andrus, 2B-Profar, CF-Hamilton, 3B-Beltre, RF-Upton, DH-Cruz, 1B-Kinsler, LF-Murphy, C-Soto

That my friends is a World Series team!

Ian Kinsler should remain our leadoff hitter. Pretty solid K/BB rates, above average power, good plate discipline, et. al.

Whether Andrus is dealt or not, there should be a pretty interesting dynamic having Profar/Martin/Kinsler inhabiting the 8/9/1 holes. If Elvis is here, fine. That would essentially be four leadoff hitters. I think that's overkill, and would rather see a MOTOB like Upton than the benefit of a 4th speedy hitter, but it's whatever floats your boat.

Eric, OBP is perhaps the most important stat for a leadoff hitter, and Ian Kinsler sucked at it last season. I don't mind if he remains the leadoff hitter, at least to start off the 2013 season, as long as Wash doesn't keep him there through extended slumps.

Let's bring back Hank Blalock and have him platoon the leadoff spot with Kinsler. We would have two HR-or-whiff, hack-tastic bats right where they belong, and Wash would have a new toy to mismanage. We would get the pleasure of watching Hammer play home games against lefties and Kins play away games against righties. Isn't that how baseball go?

/snark

Bill James' Ian Kinsler projections for 2013:

.345 OBP
.341 wOBA
10.0 BB%

career averages for IK:

.350 OBP
.353 wOBA
9.8 BB%

IK 2012:

.326 OBP
.327 wOBA
8.8 BB%

Ian Kinsler's career averages put him in elite company for leadoff men and 2B. Also, he had a BB% above 12% in both 2010 and 2011. The question is do you believe that IK is going to repeat his worst year or is he more likely to repeat what he's done for the majority of his career?

I believe Bill James' projections are very reasonable. If they come to fruition, he's the best bet to bat leadoff.

If Kinsler cannot do better than he did last year he should bat 8th. He had a pop up pick off year. Hopefully he will get back into his groove where lead off would not be ideal but marginally OK.

There is some irresponsible partisanship bleeding into this thread.

Kinsler's road wRC+ is way below average over the past 3 seasons. After 3 years it is a firmly established fact: IK's game utterly depends on the ballpark in Arlington.

I have no problem with him leading off (or hitting anywhere in the top 5 when he's n Arlington). The man should barely be playing...let alone whiffing the top of the order when he's on the road.

He was *considerably* worse than Michael Young as an offensive player when on the road last year.

Profar before you start looking even more uninformed than you already are...why dont you look at league average splits of wRC+ for ALL players on a year to year basis.

Given, IK's year was bad but I'd think you would be surprised to know the majority of players ACTUALLY PLAY BETTER AT HOME.

Gasp!!

"the majority of players ACTUALLY PLAY BETTER AT HOME. "

In 2012, playing at home increased the avg. hitters wOBA by 4.5% versust playing on the road. For his career, playing at RBIA has increased Kinsler's wOBA by 27%. So Kinsler has an extreme home/road split. I think ProfarMVP interprets that as Kinsler not being a good player. I interpret it as RBIA allowing Kinsler to reach his maximum potential and as Kinsler having much more value to the Rangers than other teams for that reason. (Weaver has a much lower ERA in Anaheim than on the road b/c Anaheim suits his game perfectly and allows him to maximize his potential.)

I think the real ? with Kinsler is why is his home/road splits are so extreme and what does that say about how he will age. He has roughly the same # of PAs on the road and at home, but he has many more HRs and xBHs at home. He also walks at a higher rate at home and strikes out at a lower rate. RBIA makes him a completely different hitter.

Justin Upton has simlarly extreme home/road splits. That scares me about him.

The RANGERS lead off hitter is obvious, but will he be trusted by Wash, and that is LEONYS MARTIN and playing CF. Trading MY frees enough capital to now sign Grienke and Hamilton, and assist in keeping 2013 team pay-roll in increasing control forcing Wash's hand in playing Martin, Profar, and Olt. GRIENKE stats over his career has not been ACE level, SO SIGNING HAMILTON should be priority #1. UPTON/SHIELDS trade is not done unless it includes Elvis, and if done, why include Shields but go after BAUER. He could be a huge surprise, just ask CODY BUCKEL. ANDRUS, GENTRY (if not enough then MURPHY) and GRIMM for UPTON and BAUER.

I'm going to toss out Dvid Murphy based on last year's OBP

Murphy??? No threat on the bases. It would be corner to corner.
I'm sure Elvis stays and is my choice. Leony's learns OBP, is another, if.

Murphy??? No threat on the bases. It would be corner to corner.
I'm sure Elvis stays and is my choice. Leony's learns OBP, is another, if.

Getting to first >>> stealing 2nd.

Yes, in hindsight, Murphy would have probably been the best leadoff. Got on base more than anyone, and didn't hit for enough power than you're tempted to put him in the heart of the lineup. Conventional wisdom prefers that the leadoff hitter be able to steal lots of bases, and Murphy only stole 10 compared to Ian and Elvis' 21. Nevertheless, if you want OBP most (and you should), Murphy was the guy.

Ian was a great leadoff man in 2011. I'd like to think he could be again next year, but if I were Wash, I wouldn't let him stay there if he was like 2012 for a substantial amount of time. Not that I expect Murphy to perform quite as well as he did this year, but if he does, good stuff.

If Kinler is moved to 1st base as some predict then I believe he will no longer be the leadoff hitter. Kinsler could be a very dangerous hitter hitting 5th or 6th because of his extra base and homerun capability. He could drive in alot more runs hitting somewhere other than leadoff. That would probably mean that Moreland would probably be included in the big trade. Either Andrus or Profar would most likely become the leadoff hitter or possibly Martin who I believe will get most of the playing time in CF. Hope to see Hamilton back in LF and Justin Upton in RF with Cruz becoming the primary DH. This would still leave us a bit shaky with Soto as the starting catcher but he might return to form, who knows?

RFan, TxBall...I definitely would never say Ian sucks. I like Ian...I love his "Get off our field" competitiveness. I don't much mind the body language...as long as he runs out those grounders and short flies.

If only RonRon would at the very least platoon him on the road.

He not only had an obscene home/away split... he only hit 76 wRC+ against right handers. On the road against righties his OPS is about .122. An exaggeration to be sure, but...geesh. (I'd love a website where I can find double split numbers.)

Trust me on the road against righties....he's , really, really bad....and has no place in the lineup...let alone leading off.