What is your opinion of the A.J. Pierzynski signing?
MJH on accountability
What if we do in fact trade Elvis for Upton, who has three years left on his current deal. Let's assume/hope/pray that Upton has a great year for Texas in 2013. Then he has two years left on his deal... so we're right back where we started, worrying that we either have to extend him at an exorbitant cost, or do we then deal Upton to extract maximum value while he still has two years left on his deal?
This logic doesn't make sense to me. The whole reason there are "Trade Elvis For Upton" supporters is because of a number of factors, not just the idea of him having two years left. Putting it in those terms is pretty shortsighted. The reason Elvis should be traded now is because the Rangers have a need in the middle of the lineup, and because there's an apt replacement. If we handle every prospect with oven mittens, this franchise isn't going to progress. Don't forget, we took a chance on Elvis when he was in his age-20 season, and he's nowhere near the prospect Profar is.
Take these things into consideration. To add on, Scott Boras isn't Justin Upton's agent, and we have three full years to hammer out an extension if we really wanted him back. Also, three years from now, the Beras's and Brinson's and Mazara's and Guzman's will be closer to the Major Leagues. Will some of them wash out? There's a good chance. But all four of them? Probably not. That's talent. And that's leverage against Upton.
Combine all that with the probable notion that the Rangers approached Elvis with an extension last year, and he wasn't up for it, so they decided to sign up Kinsler instead. If you pin the next 6 years of Kinsler against Andrus, I don't think anyone would disagree that we'd rather have Andrus.
It's more than just Profar vs. Andrus.
Okay Eric, you're right about everything. My logic doesn't make sense and I am shortsighted. I'll stop having opinions that differ from yours. Instead I will just sit here reading the five hundred posts you write every day.
What Marco said
that's right marco! i'm tired of eric's crap too! he writes here all day long and acts arrogant when someone disagrees with him. get a life eric - like a job, or a wife or girlfriend, or something other than just this website!
So you're saying I'm right and you don't have anything to counter with? Please tell me more about how right you are about this and how much Jurickson Profar sucks.
Eric, read my comment. I didn't say Profar sucks. I said I expect him to have rookie growing pains in 2013 and that could hinder a club that's trying to compete for a World Series title. I also believe Elvis is worth more than Justin Upton.
That doesn't make me shortsighted or illogical. It just means I have an opinion that's different from the guy who posts on this website all damn day and has appointed himself the Sheriff of Forumtown.
You know Eric, sometimes the fact that you are a 20-year old kid really comes shining through.
"Someone used "good read" and "Jean-Jacques Taylor" in the same sentence?"
That's the funniest thing I've read all morning. Thanks Jondar.
Regarding Elvis and Upton, I imagine that, with all that we've been hearing about this possibility the last couple weeks—let alone before that—there must have been some serious discussions about the possibilities. I would not be surprised if there were people in the Rangers' office that are arguing the points that eric et. al. are making, and others that would agree with Marco et. al. This must be a serious point of contention, or it probably would have happened already.
Personally, I'm more inclined to be conservative about the situation and side with Marco. When they moved Young out of SS for Elvis, I see 2 things that were probably at play: they didn't trade Young, so if Elvis tanked they had the option of finding a new SS or moving Young back and finding a new 3B. Fortunately they didn't have to make that decision.
If we trade Elvis, we can't just ask for him back if Profar tanks or struggles in his rookie year. If he can't hack it, we have to either see if yet another SS in our system can hack it, or we have a subpar SS for the rest of the year—either Profar or Young. The stakes are much higher now than they were 4 years ago. Basically, if they trade Elvis, they have to be absolutely sure Profar will work out at SS, and sooner rather than later. They are expecting to contend again this year, and we'll already have a black hole at C and possibly another one wherever MY plays if he's still here. We can't afford a 3rd one at SS, even if we have Upton in the OF.
Personally I don't think we need Upton so badly if we have to give up Elvis for him. But if the Rangers decide it's a risk worth taking, I'll understand.
Marco, you know I find you to be one of the more intelligent posters on this board. I agree with most of the things you say. The topic of Andrus vs. Upton is quite polarizing amongst Rangers fans, but that shouldn't mean you should resort to the same brand of unoriginal troll shit that some of my regular haters put out there. You're smarter and better than that.
I read your comment, and I responded accordingly. No need to get all defensive on me. Your contention about Upton is that you think Elvis is worth more. I get that. However, Upton's produced 16.7 fWAR over the last 4 years, and has yet to hit his prime. In that span, he's thrown up a 4.8 fWAR and 6.4 fWAR season. Elvis Andrus, in the same interval, has put up 13.9 fWAR, and his best season was in '11 when he produced 4.4 fWAR.
See, my argument isn't that Elvis isn't damn good. It's that, for all we know, his ceiling is right around where he's been the last two seasons. Great defense, great wheels, and about a league-average bat for his position. He's never generated a wRC+ over 95. Justin Upton, on the other hand, has already put up 130 and 139 wRC+ seasons, and, again, is only 25.
Basically, I trust if the Rangers give up Andrus for Upton and insert Profar at shortstop, they are exclaiming pretty clearly that (a) they believe in Upton's potential, (b) they think Profar is ready, and (c) that they felt they didn't have it in them to re-sign Elvis Andrus. The neo-Rangers regime is comfortable taking educated gambles to progress the franchise.
Sans our best hitter (Hamilton), this isn't the time to play it safe.
You are the troll dude.
You shit on people who respect you and converse with you.
I realize you are very young but that is all the more reason to grow up.
Even if we get Greinke, we still need to figure out a way to get rid of Wash. He's an excellent manager with a team of young guys. Now that the Rangers roster is filled with Veteran players it's no longer a good fit. Wash would be an excellent manager in Seattle, Oakland, or even in Houston. We decided to keep and sign on veteran players so we need a Tony Larusa kind of A-hole who puts importance on winning instead of people's feelings.
@ JoeThanks for that substantial contribution to the forum. You really think that made the forum any better? Eric at least backs his statements up with numbers and facts rather than bludgeoning away at the keyboard with that sorry excuse for a comment you just posted. Thanks for playing, but try again when you can respond intelligently.
Geez, some prople just can't handle someone disagreeing with them and then providing quantifiable evidence to back it up. All he's doing is debating his case. Some of you need to be less childish and figure out how to handle that.
I agree completely. We also have the bunch that thinks they're all descendents of Billy Bean bringing up baseball statistics that they don't fully understand. Some of these people should tattoo WAR to their forehead because that's the one thing they've attached themselves to and can't say anything else during the discussions.
Let's make these WAR people happy. Let's take away fan voting for the All-Star game and use whoever has the highest WAR for each position.
What Marco said X 1,000,000,000,000,000
1 I do think Upton could become a Ranger. Maybe. 2 I think Andrus is likely to be traded eventually, but nothing I've seen so far makes me think it happens this off-season. 3 I don't think those two concepts are contradictory. In fact, there are plenty of signs that the Rangers have spent time trying to figure out how to get Upton without using Andrus or Profar, should they decide they want to get Upton.
I don't understand why people hate on Eric reining. It seems as soon as he responds to any post he is attacked by someone for him explaining his point if view. Instead of insulting him or being sarcastic with him why don't y'all try and explain your point of view in detail like he does in every single one of his posts.
The bad JOE returns? Joe C, come clean this crap outta here!
Just kidding. What's with all this angst? Surely, it's Michael Young's fault. Cant have my guys ER and Marco going at it.
Btw, Im in the trade Elvis now camp. He isn't coming back. :/
Let's inject a bit of realism on Elvis, shall we?
Elvis since 2009 is 6th in fWAR for SS.His career wRC+ of 86 is below average at his position.His career high of 95 wRC+ (2012) places him 11th best SS in MLB based on qualified SS.His defense + BSR is what makes him elite.In the same span, Elvis has accumulated 56.1 total runs from defense + BsR (best in the league). Second us BRENDAN RYAN at roughly 50.Basically, Elvis has accumulated 5.6 wins over a 4 year span with his glove and legs. 5.6 out of 13.9 fWAR.
During the same span, Derek Jeter has accumulated 15.5 fWAR and he's accrued -11.7 total runs from defense + BsR. His wRC+ during this time frame was 111. 4th best in the league.
Now, I'm a bit skeptical about UZR as a defensive metric so I take these numbers with a grain of salt, but I don't believe Elvis has an offensive ceiling anywhere near Profar and Profar could quite conceivably post a season of 100+ wRC+ his rookie year and is a better bet to post a higher value on offense than Elvis NEXT year. Elvis is in a league of his own when considering BsR + UZR; however Profar is considered above average on defense and a very smart baserunner (steals are part of wRC+).
Is it unlikely that Profar has a better year than Elvis with the same amount of at bats? My bet would be, probably so...but not enough to warrant a trade of Elvis for a bat the caliber of Upton. The difference between Elvis now and Profar's realistic fWAR projections is probably about .5 - 1 WAR. This is taking into account Elvis improving slightly on offense.
I love Elvis. That said, I would much rather have Profar + trade piece acquired via Elvis.
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