I am curious as to how Greinkes WAR will look at the end of the mega deal he is about to get. If its 6 for 145-150 or 7 for 160-170 I don't see the team that signs him getting surplus value. By the end of the contract he will be at least 35 and in all likelihood trending downwards. Even if he is still a #2-3 by the end of the deal I think he will generate quite a bit of negative value based on the contract. Although with the way TV deals are going we could easily see the cost of 1 win raise significantly by the end of the deal.

So how do you think the winning team looks at the end of the deal?

1. Team gets surplus value.

2. Team just about breaks even.

3. Greinke doesn't perform to the value of his contract.

Also how many WAR do you think Greinke will generate over the course of 6 years?

I will bet somewhere between 23-25 WAR after 6 years which won't be a lot of negative at what he's speculated to get, but negative still.

I've wondered if JD has a Sabre Hound on Staff?

I think the team breaks about even provided they don't get completely stupid with the contract considering the cost of WAR inflation. If he has a couple of cy young caliber seasons you might even get a little surplus value.

The top hitter and top pitcher in any free agency year is guaranteed to get crazy money. These kinds of deals rarely work out as good value propositions.

GMs are trying to sell buzz, sell tickets, and secure that one or two WAR that puts you over the top. And with chum in the water...it's often dubious if the "winner" in these bidding wars...really wins anything at all.

Can anyone here imagine had we signed Lee?

I've been very dubious that we land Greinke. And a big part of me hopes we don't.

The top hitter and top pitcher in any free agency year is guaranteed to get crazy money. These kinds of deals rarely work out as good value propositions.

GMs are trying to sell buzz, sell tickets, and secure that one or two WAR that puts you over the top. And with chum in the water...it's often dubious if the "winner" in these bidding wars...really wins anything at all.

Can anyone here imagine had we signed Lee?

I've been very dubious that we land Greinke. And a big part of me hopes we don't.

How are you valuing WAR? And are you appreciating it over time?

@ProfarMVP How much "buzz" does Greinke really create? The price seems steep and bordering on reckless. I know it's not my money, I'm just curious to hear the case for paying that much to Greinke who is not all that much better recently than Shields or Sanchez.

Strangely I'd feel more comfortable about Josh at 4/100 than Greinke for 6/160+. Josh's ceiling is much higher I think... though we all know there's great risk. Greinke, meanwhile, aside from his 2.16 ERA in 2009 is a career 4.06 pitcher. The last 3 seasons he's posted a 3.83 ERA which is just barely ahead of Colby Lewis but worse than fringe "aces" like Shields, Sanchez, Buchholz, and 2s-4s like Lohse, Marcum, Garza, and a full run higher in that time period than Josh Johnson. Maybe being traded twice in that span was a factor for Greinke, and he would flourish in this environment and in that clubhouse for the long haul. But it still seems like we'd be banking on a return to his Cy Young form of 2009 to justify that contract, even though anything CLOSE to that could put this team over the top.

Anyway... I'm talking in circles now. Again, I'll be happy if we get him but long-term I'm a bit concerned.

Two things working in Greinke's favor in Arlington:

1. An above average to great defense behind him (you see how that works for Matt Harrison).
2. He's a ground ball pitcher who can also strikeout a ton of batters.

Anyway, let's do some math, shall we?

For the sake of simplicity, I'll value each WAR at $5M, and we'll say the contract he hypothetically gets from Texas is 6/$150M.

That's $150M divided by 6 years, which equals $30M. If each win is worth $5M, that's an average of 5.0 WAR per season to justify the contract. Is that a lot? Yes. Is that unrealistic to attain? No.

Zach Greinke exclusively became a starter in 2008. Since then, here at the WAR totals he's generated:

2008 -- 4.9 (32 starts)
2009 -- 9.3 (33 starts)
2010 -- 5.1 (33 starts)
2011 -- 4.0 (28 starts)
2012 -- 5.1 (34 starts)

He's in the prime of his career. I think it's completely conceivable that he averages 5.0 WAR/season for the next six years. I mean, his worst season over the last 5 years was a 4.0 WAR season, and if he had made an extra 5 starts at the pace he was going, he again would have been right around 5.0 WAR.

Of course, odds are extremely favorable that the price of each win doesn't stay static at $5M over the next 6 years, particularly with respect to all the TV money that's been flowing in. Even right now many believe the price of each win is close to $6M. So if his price ballooned into the $160M+ range, I could still see Greinke justifying it.

Also, as a slight aside to end this, I think a big reason why Greinke is so valuable is because we're likely not going to come across a better pitcher in the next three years. Felix Hernandez, Justin Verlander, Clayton Kershaw ... each of those guys is theoretically coming off the books in two years, but all three are heavy leans to stay with their current organizations. The Rangers need Zach Greinke to have a two-headed monster at the top of the rotation.

This is the best chance we've got at an ace for the foreseeable future.

The Angels didnt give Pujols $250M b/c they thought he was worth 30/year during the last 5 years of the contract. They gave it to him b/c that was his market value, and they want to squeeze as much as they can out of his first 5-6 "good" years. I think they know they're going to hate that contract in 2020. But it was worth it to them anyway.

Theres no way Greinke is going to be worth 25/year in the last few years of this contract. They know that.

A few things:

1- During a radio interview, Billy Beane said typically 9 Million per WAR among FA- not the target 5 million If Greinke's production makes him being paid 5 million per WAR, that's a really great signing.
2- All WAR is not created equal. Paying 10 mill for a 2 WAR player makes far less sense given that that Rangers have a bunch of 2 WAR capable players. Getting that extra value costs, and is worth it.
3- I'm not convinced he gets 6 years 150. I think the Hamels deal is the target. 6 years 144. At the same contract, I take Greinke in a heartbeat.

150/6=25

Guyz, duz JD have a Sabre Hound on his staff, to help him out with
*meaningful stats?
Obviously Boston & Philly does not. How 'bout Rangers?

He's in the prime of his career. I think it's completely conceivable that he averages 5.0 WAR/season for the next six years.

Exactly. He's CURRENTLY in the prime of his career -- and averaging just 4.7 WAR over the past three year. I suspect that average will wane rather than wax and he'll be a sunk cost by the end of the contract he's about to get. If anyone hasn't read the Fangraphs article (its linked in the forum somewhere) they should. The decline in velocity is pretty concerning.

Bill James works for Boston.

@Andy~
Thanx. "THE" Bill James seems to be bringing back the "Blue Collar" BoSox
the fans seems to love up there. I liked the backup catcher signing in ATL/Ross.
What in the ___ was the Victorino sign all about though? Was James on the toilet?
Asking again, is there a Sabre Hound in/on the Ranger Staff, supporting Daniels?

You CAN NOT sign a great free agent around 30 years old without having this problem. If this is something you are really worried about avoiding, then prepare to have very few players over the age of 28 on this team ever.