What is your opinion of the A.J. Pierzynski signing?
MJH on accountability
TR Sullivan reports that the Rangers are considering a trade with the Mets for RA Dickey. Dickey is under contract for 2013 only for $5 mil. I don't know how I feel about Dickey himself. But I would love to see the Rangers get Ike Davis.
Here's why I like Davis. Davis is under team control for several more years and he makes next to nothing by MLB standards. Davis posted only 1.6 WAR last season. But he had a .246 BABIP despite having a normal line drive rate. HIs expected BABIP (xBAPIP) was 55 points higher than his actual BABIP, so he was apparently very unlucky. Also, Davis crushes away from Citi Field (career road wRC+ 130, 2012 road wRC+ 143). Citi Field is a nightmare for lefties. Over a 3-year period, Citi Field ranks 27th in HR rate and 20th in OPS for lefties. By comparison, RBiA ranked 3rd in HR rate and 7th in OPS for lefties. So Davis would receive a significant boost from RBiA. For that reason, he's worth more to us than to the Mets. I could see him being a 4-5 WAR player next year for the Rangers at a cost of $3 mil.
Any thoughts on what it would take to get Dickey and Davis?
I'd be hopeful for something like Moreland and Perez. My problem with Dickey is that his value in NY is pretty high. I hate the idea of trading significant pieces for a player you have to sign to a huge contract. Why not just sign Greinke to the huge contract if the money looks similar?
Not a big fan of Dickey but I'd love to have a shot at Davis. Don't know much about the Mets needs but I seem to remember a year or so back the Mets were interested in Craig Gentry. Obviously it would take more than kittenface.
R.A. Dickey back as a Ranger, IZ very possible.
Dickey to Texas makes a lot of sense, and maybe has some potential. Davis to Texas has neither.
I would like Ike, but I don't see the Mets letting him go easily. Dickey, though, is very intriguing. I would love to have Dickey (the knuckleballer) on the same staff as Darvish (he of the 7 or 8 different pitches), besides our 3 more "conventional" pitchers. Might keep the opposition on their toes.
A closer look at TR Sullivan's report:
The Rangers are interested in trading for Mets pitcher R.A. Dickey. The Mets, who are in a rebuilding mode, are trying to work out a contract extension with Dickey. He is signed for $5 million in 2013 but is a free agent after that. If the Mets can’t work out an extension then they would consider trading him. According to sources, the Rangers are definitely interested in talking more with the Mets at the Winter Meetings.
The Mets have multiple needs but outfield is high on the list.
I find it informative that this isn't couched in maybe's and vagueness. They are "interested." They are "definitely interested." And the circumstance under which such a trade would be available is provided.
Interesting. RFan, I know you've been on the Ike Davis bandwagon for quite a while, and given the current climate of the Rangers at 1B, I'd be all for it.
As it breaks down, Dickey is owed just $5M in 2013. Davis has one more pre-arb season, then his three arb years. That's a lot of potential surplus value for very little money.
To execute something like this, it essentially turns either or both of Mitch Moreland and Mike Olt expendable. Olt is obviously more valuable in a trade, but would it really make sense to give him up in a deal like this? Moreland is basically a replacement-level first baseman, and his numbers would probably be helped by facing NL pitching and then hurt by the ballpark he was in. So from that standpoint, it's a wash.
One guy I wouldn't mind seeing thrown in the deal is Nelson Cruz. He has a strong NY contingency, and it would be awesome to shed his $10.5M next year.
How about Mike Olt, Nelson Cruz and either of Justin Grimm or Cody Buckel. Thoughts?
If the Mets insist on including Dickey, I'd be hesitant to deal. I like Dickey as a person, I don't want him on the Strangers. He's going to regress and knuckleballers are unpredictable. I'd love to get Ike Davis as a 1B upgrade over Moreland.
I suppose if you want to trade you can throw in Perez, Moreland and Borbon... but then again, I don't think the Mets will deal *just* Davis.
Ugh, I agree with Nompton. Look at Tim Wakefield. In the 9 years following his career season in 2002 at the age of 36, he only had 1 in which his FIP was lower than 4.52. Knuckleballers are novelty items, and the novelty quickly wears off. Not to mention Dickey will be going from the 8-hitter NL lineup to the 9-hitter AL one. If this is all we do this offseason in an attempt to upgrade the rotation, I'm going to pull my shirt over my head the rest of the offseason because I won't be able to bear to look to see what else we do.
Wakefield was his own worst enemy... other knucklers (Charlie Hough, the Niekros, etc...) all got better with age. Dickey's skill has been on an upward swing for a couple of years, now... and, being a knuckler, he should age very well.
I'd take him in a heartbeat.
Not so sure about Davis... unless, truly, the park suppressed his numbers... he is very streaky with his going games - even weeks - at a time not being very productive... I had him on my fantasy team last year and he frustrated the daylights out of me.
FIP basically means nothing when it comes to knuckleball pitchers, due to how volatile the pitch itself happens to be. To that end, it's a mistake to compare a knuckleball pitcher like Dickey to Tim Wakefield. Just as not every 95 mph fastball has the same effect (whether it be from the movement, location, or deception of the pitcher), no two knuckleballs are created equal.
As for Dickey, I'm not completely thrilled about the idea of adding him, but if you're giving me the option of Dickey vs. Martin Perez in the 5th slot of the rotation, I'll take the former all day.
I believe I suggested this prior to the trade dead-line... Yet was told by most, they'd never part with him as he was a fan fav. Ridiculed by many of the know it alls on here. As most often? I was right.
Dickey's not just a knuckleball pitcher. He mixes it up damn good. His KB is thrownanywhere from 50 to 80+mph. Try waiting onthat pill. I doubt Mets would take on Cruz's salary. NorKC or even Ray's. AZ can't fit him in. What doesSeattle have to offer? Nada. Cruz to Boston,Philly, SF? Hmm, looks as if Kinsler & Cruz join MY asunmoveable for 2013 Season.
Rangers Homer - the context in which you just proudly boasted that you were right is wrong. Prior to the trade deadline isn't the offseason. Fail.
HubZ - seriously...what?
Ooopz, sorry TxB. Sometimes I sound like a 1920's Reporter, ey?Juz sitting here in Memphis slinging trade spit.Nights we get a little wound up and can't sleep. So I came here.Pill= a baseball, okey dokey?
"Dickey to Texas makes a lot of sense, and maybe has some potential. Davis to Texas has neither."
Davis makes a lot of sense for Texas. As for the Mets, I think it depends on what they could get in return. B/c of their field, Davis isn't worth as much to them as he is to Texas. That makes a mutually beneficial trade possible if the Rangers are willing to give the Mets some talent, as I think they should be. (Think about Adrian Beltre. With the Mariners, he was an avg. offensive player with a wRC+ around 100. With the Rangers, his avg. wRC+ is around 135 and he's posting MVP caliber WAR numbers. Beltre is worth more to the Rangers than to Sea b/c our park maximizes his offensive potential and their park minimizes it.)
"How about Mike Olt, Nelson Cruz and either of Justin Grimm or Cody Buckel."
I imagine that the Mets are rebuilding and wouldn't want Nelson Cruz for one season. The Mets also have Wright at 3B, so I don't know whether they would be interested in Olt.
I think to get both Dickey and Davis, the Rangers would almost certainly have to part with Perez and Moreland. And they would have to part with someone else valuable as well. Maybe someone like Martin or Holland.
i'm very much in favor of bringing RA back. in spite of his cy young, it appears he's in a buyer's market. after all, he's old, potentially expensive (although not hugely so, i don't think), and an enigma. but his age isn't a concern as a knuckler and he should be an innings eater at the very least, possibly a 1A or #2 rotation guy for a couple years. that's an incredibly valuable return if we can get a deal that doesn't include any blue chippers. would justin grimm, roughned odor and luke jackson get it done? 3 guys who would be in other team's top 10 or 5 prospects, but barely break our top 10. that's the kind of deal i'd try and make. however, i'd want to re-sign for a couple more years before completing the deal.
I think it might take a bit more than Grimm, Odor, and Jackson, though I'd definitely be in favor of that if they were willing. To get both Dickey and Ike though, I think something like Perez, Sardinas, and Martin (along with a Grimm or Jackson for depth) might be more realistic. It would give the Mets an upside starter in Perez, a CF in Martin, and a high upside SS prospect in Sardinas. They might be looking for more ML ready players than that but if they are, I'm not sure how well we match up as Olt would be a bit redundant considering Wright will be there until he retires and Olt loses a good bit of value if he's moved off 3B.
I'd like to see what a HubZ post looks like without pressing the Enter key.
Regarding Dickey (1) The Angels are said to be in the mix. I wanted him already, and I think that increases the value to keep him from going to LA.(2) He won't be cheap. NY needs OFs and LAA has players like Trumbo and Bourjous to offer. KC is also very much in the mix and has players like Gordon and Myers to offer. A platter of miscellaneous A to AA prospects isn't going to come close to getting it done.(3) I think Nellie Cruz would have way more potential value in such a swap than he's credited for in this thread.
@DavidNo way the Angels trade Trumbo for Dickey, but I could see Bourjos in trade talks. Other than that, the Angels have nothing of value in the minors that is even close to the Rangers after that Greinke trade. I'd argue Gentry has close to equal value of Bourjos too after last season. The only way I trade for Dickey is if he accepts a 2 year contract extension, it takes only minor players, or a Cruz swap. If not, give me Shields.
ryan, you might be right, but i'm not sure. and that's the thing: dickey's value could be anywhere. being a knuckleballer, his value doesn't have the same comparables as a normal pitcher. i think lots of teams are simply going to devalue him from the start, even the ones who'd be interested in trading for him. it's this that gives me hope that we could deal for him w out giving up too much blue chip or present talent.
to everyone who mentioned cruz having to be part of the deal, i agree. mostly bc i wouldn't do the deal w out first resigning dickey to an extension, and that money has to balance out. but we'd have to give up more if we sent money back to new york, who isn't really a big market team, right now.
concerning the angels/royals offerings: i don't think trumbo or bourjos are powerful chips. trumbo fell off a cliff in the second half and is a bad defender, which lowers his value for a dh-less, senior league team. and bourjos can't hit. i would argue that leonys has more value than either of them. as for the royals, i don't see them giving up myers or gordon for dickey but that doesn't mean they couldn't work another deal.
Asking price for Dickey, when considering whether he's worth chasing:
ESPNBoston.com's Joe McDonald reports that Red Sox GM Ben Cherington met with Sandy Alderson on Monday, and that the Mets have asked for top Red Sox prospects Jackie Bradley Jr. and shortstop Xander Boegarts in a trade for R.A. Dickey.
Boston is unlikely to part with either prospect, McDonald added. He said the Mets have met with eight teams.
In case you're wondering, those are Boston's two highest-rated position prospects, AA - ish players for now, and each has put up an OPS of around 1.000 so they have shown something very promising.
MLB.com: "Any thoughts of Bogaerts coming along slowly were thrown out the window when he played his way to the South Atlantic League in 2011 and seemed more than comfortable there as a teenager. He kept progressing in 2012, starting the season with Class A Advanced Salem and earning a promotion to Double-A after putting up a .302/.378/.505 slash line in 104 games there. Bogaerts has some serious pop, with the ability to hit to all fields. A very good pure hitter, he'll get even better when he learns the strike zone better, something that's sure to happen as he progresses as he's already shown an ability to adjust at the plate. He's not bad at shortstop, but there's a good chance he'll outgrow the spot and move to third, where his bat will play well."
"Bradley's a rare center fielder who is a plus defender without having good speed, a Jim Edmonds type. Bradley has a solid bat from the left side of the plate with excellent plate discipline and enough power to keep pitchers honest. He started 2012 with Class A Advanced Salem, where his .359/.480/.526 slash line was good enough to earn him a promotion to Double-A Portland in mid-June. It may not take him that long to be ready for Boston."
Ugh, still don't like the idea of Dickey. Think there's nowhere to go but down at this point in his career, and I can see disciplined AL hitters like Cabrera and Pujols etc. teeing off on him. Dickey is icky.
Notify me of follow-up comments via email.