What is your opinion of the A.J. Pierzynski signing?
MJH on accountability
As we all love to throw out crazy trade ideas I figured I woudl throw this one out. If Profar were to be traded today on his own what would he bring in from an MLB team? a lot of people have been throwing out deals for Myers and D'Arnaud, and they have been pretty hefty deals. So what kind of deal would it take to pry the #1 prospect away from the Rangers?
You only trade a premium position stud for top shelf pitching or another premium position stud at a position (catcher) you need more. Top-flight shortstop with some pop for top-flight catcher or center fielder with some pop = reasonable. Top-flight shortstop with some pop for top-flight corner outfielder with some pop = not reasonable.
David Price. A deal centered around those 2 would be intriguing to both sides, given how much Price will likely make in a few years and the Rays' penchant for not paying a zillion dollars for anyone.
Then again, they just promised Longoria a lot of money, albeit in several years. Maybe they've been saving for a while.
I'm saying just trading Profar alone, no one else. I personally don't think he would return that much, maybe just a few high level prospects. I get the point in trading for prospects really.
Profar is oddly, untradable. His desired return is unmatched by almost any other team. There's about a half-dozen players in the league who you could trade, straight up, for Profar. I'd look for a pitcher with 2+ years left on a "WAR Surplus" contract who is consistently a top 10 pitcher in the majors. OR you could look for a big bat with 2-3 years left of a team-friendly contract. Do players exist, sure... but they are pretty untouchable. It's tough to induce a 1:1 swap--what team would want to trade a major cog in their system for no benefit?
That's like trading $100 for $100--you have to have something else to induce the trade.
Using his typically awesome logic, Nompton is pretty spot-on here. Profar simply cannot be moved, because (a) it would be impossible to get fair value in return from a WAR/$ standpoint, and (b) because assuming Andrus walks after 2014, Kinsler would be our only middle infielder. I know I'm looking at this a bit differently than Nomp, but the conclusion is the same.
If you incorporate scouting and future production with Profar, it's reasonable that he could generate about 4.0 WAR in 2013, 4.5-5.0 WAR in 2014, and then another 4.5-5.0 WAR in 2015 -- possibly more than that. To throw on our math goggles, that's 3 years x $480K, which = $1.44M.
Take my bare minimum WAR projections and that's 4.0+4.5+4.5 = 13.0 WAR.Multiply 13.0 x $4.5M (the baseline cost of 1 WAR) = $58.5M.
58.5 - 1.44 = ~$57M in surplus value.
That's $57M before Profar ever hits arbitration. I'm hoping desperately that if he's as good as most scouts have him pegged to be (Keith Law says future MVP races are going to be Trout vs. Profar), that the Rangers will have already offered him a Longoria-esque extension by the time his 2nd full season is complete.
The list of players who are going to provide as much surplus value as Profar is minimal. If Elvis is still on roster the next two years and leaves in free agency after '14, our need for Profar here in the longterm becomes vital. There's just no reason to move him.
Not even straight up for David Price.
Everyone knows how valuable Elvis was, before Profar moved up.Elvis takes second seat? Both are probably equal, on a NOW "trade line",but SWH Profar, with Pop, adds a VERY possible 5 TOOL scenario.Itz a future worth gambling on for Profar to stay a Ranger.After all, how many 5 Tool players are MLB Short Stops... ever? Yeah, Profar is PRIMO. NON-Tradeable. Value Elite - Top Tier.Hey, I love Trout, Harper, but... Profar's a $$. Letz see where War falls at the end of season.Sophmore jinx for Trout? Can he hold his 10+?Profar is going to be Big, swimming among 1.5-3 WAR, on Rangers.
Everybody's hitting the nail right on the head here. Profar is essentially untradeable, not only because of his projected production, but also his projected value at such an offensively scarce position. By all accounts, Profar is a unanimous stud: A switch-hitting SS with a good glove and a plus-arm, huge power potential (his small frame will eventually fill-out some, but Profar already hit 14 HR's last year with such a small body, so imagine the power, especially for a SS), and he also seems to have the intangibles... a knack for delivering in big moments, always seems to be in the right spot at the right moment, etc. (and this is according to a few scouting reports that I have read).
The value of Profar cannot be traded because no team would be willing to trade their star pitcher or hitter in a 1-for-1 swap. It just wouldn't make any sense for both sides. Especially after considering that the Rangers have another valuable commodity to trade at the same position with Elvis Andrus.
This wasn't intended to be a realistic post, I think we all know there is 0 chance Profar goes anywhere for a long time, but there are a lot of Kinsler for D'Arnaud and Harrison for Myers trades being thrown out there. If those guys could real in a return like that, I could only imagine what Profar could bring in on the open market. Although I do agree, you really can't trade Profar. It just isn't possible to even begin to put a value on his head.
Grantland has him as the 18th best player trade value wise in the league.http://www.grantland.com/story/_/id/8627624/rating-players-contracts-major-league-baseball-part-2
Players like Profar only get traded for superstars. I bet you could throw a Profar/Moreland/Perez at TB for Price (Ranked 12th on the list) and they would be hard pressed to say no.
Guys, I know this has been beaten to death. So I apologize. But, either Andrus or Kinsler will have to be moved.
If it's Andrus, then the puzzle is easy to solve. Profar will man the SS position and Kins will play 2B.
However, if Kinsler moves, either by trade or position change, what do you do?
Can Elvis play 2B? I think the answer to that is yes. He has indicated that he will do what is necessary for the team. It also puts a little less wear and tear on Elvis, who has played every day for the past few seasons.
Do you play Profar at 2B? Does this reduce his value? Probably.
If you don't trade Kinsler's contract, how is he best utilized on the 2013 Rangers?
Full time OF?Part time OF/ Part time DH/ Fill in 2B-1B?Full time DH
Notice that, in those scenarios, there is an elephant in the room. It's name is Michael Young.
If you look closely, there is a Giraffe standing behind the elephant. It's name is Nelson Cruz.
This place is a zoo.
Well according to this article about the 50 most valuable trade assets in MLB over at Grantland, here is how the Rangers break down:
Honorable Mention: Derek Holland (outside the top 50, somewhere around 60-70 or so I guess)
Honorable Mention: Adrian Beltre (between 50-60): Is it too late to expand this list to 60? Only Miguel Cabrera, Justin Verlander, Joey Votto, Robinson Cano, and Ryan Braun have produced more value for their teams over the past three years than Beltre has. He also missed 51 games in 2009 and 38 in 2011 and turns 34 in April, making him enough of a risk at three years, $51 million (plus a $16 million voidable option) to leave him a bit short of the top 50.
46: Elvis Andrus (right behind Andrelton Simmons at 45)As desperate as a few teams might be to add a big hitter to the middle of their lineup, they need only think back to July 31, 2007, to remember the downside to blockbuster deals. That day, the Braves dealt an 18-year-old Andrus, along with Neftali Feliz, Matt Harrison, Jarrod Saltalamacchia, and Beau Jones, for Mark Teixeira and Ron Mahay; Teixeira played one calendar year with the Braves, then was dealt to the Angels for … Casey Kotchman. Five-plus years later, Andrus has become a core player for the Rangers, a sparkling defender and swift base runner who hits enough to justify an everyday job, if not the no. 2 lineup spot that Ron Washington continues to give him for no good reason. Andrus has only two years before free agency, but he's signed for just $11 million over those two years. With Jurickson Profar now up with the big club and Ian Kinsler locked in long term, Andrus is one of the few players on this list who's a good bet to see his trade value tested in real life between now and next spring.
33: Yu DarvishIf you think $51 million is a lot to pay for the next five years of a 26-year-old ace who finished second in the majors in strikeout rate, posted a 3-to-1 strikeout-to-walk rate and an opponents' OPS of .626 in the second half last season, and may well improve now that he's got a year of big league competition under his belt … remember that Jeremy Guthrie sought $34 million this winter, before signing for $25 million.
18: Jurickson Profar (slightly ahead of 21. Brett Lawrie 20. Dylan Bundy and19. Manny Machado) Highest Ranked RangerProspecting isn't easy. For every Mike Trout and Bryce Harper there are many Todd Van Poppels and Brien Taylors. Still, baseball's compensation structure skews heavily in favor of teams going young. It's conceivable that Profar, Machado, and Bundy, none of whom have played even one-third of a season in the big leagues, will crash and burn rather than fulfill the world's massive expectations. But the mere possibility that these three megaprospects will become stars begs for a sky-high ranking, given that all three won't make much more than league minimum for three more years, and won't get to shop their services to the highest bidder for six. Oh, sure, you could point to the Rangers theoretically blocking Profar by keeping Elvis Andrus longer than they need to, Machado settling at third rather than at short, thus diminishing his overall value, or Bundy being a high school pitcher, which comes with plenty of baked-in risk. But let's be real: The talent's there, the opportunity will be there, and the Rangers and Orioles will pay each of these guys $20.5 million less than Vernon Wells will make next year. If anything, these rankings might be a little low.
In case anyone was Wondering, Trout is #1, Giancarlo Stanton #3, David Price is #12, Justin Upton is #38.
something to keep in mind about high profile prospects:
There are no sure things, but Profar is pretty close. His chances of being a bust are probably lower than most other players, possibly all. Of course, as he's still only 19, it would take several years of lackluster performance (probably another 5-6 years) before we could possibly begin to label him as such. On the other hand, he could prove to be (most likely; barring a Bobby Crosby) a pretty sure thing in just a year or two.
As far as guys you would still consider prospects, Profar is easily among the top 5. There's every reason to be bullish about him. So bullish that you would think twice about including him in a deal for a Cy Young winner.
The only question with these types of prospects is whether they acclimate and hit the MLB pitchers. Playing the position doesn't change much from AAA to MLB level. That is one reason managers don't want to just throw the kids into the pool and let them sink or swim. For all the griping about Washington not letting him take over a position during the regular season, witness the way they limited Trouts' exposure last year. The only reason Trout played even 40 games was because they had so many injuries during the season. I would hope that he is given a legitimate chance to step up and play with some regularity this season.
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