What is your opinion of the A.J. Pierzynski signing?
MJH on accountability
This is going to be a rundown of various Rangers assets. The Winter Meetings are next week, and I had this thought in my head in the scenario that Texas does not acquire a TORP or a MOTOB. With a core of Andrus, Kinsler, Beltre, Profar, Darvish, Harrison, Holland, Ogando, etc., if the Rangers didn't do anything and went into the season with this current roster in hand, I see us winning between 80 and 84 games. The inclusion of a 4-5 win pitcher and 4-5 win hitter puts us in prime position to take the division.
But what if, in the spirit of saving money and heading into 2014 with a stronger infrastructure, the Rangers decided to sell off their assets for prospects?
Matt Harrison and Elvis Andrus each have two years remaining on their deals, and each of them could command pretty solid packages in return, particularly in the case of Andrus. Nelson Cruz might net a pretty decent tier-2 prospect from somewhere. David Murphy probably isn't worth much, but we could get something there.
That's a savings of about $15M the next two years from Harrison (through arb-2 [~$6M] and arb-3 [~$9M]), about $11M from Andrus, $10.5M from Cruz, and about $6M from Murphy. It's a grand total savings of $42.5M over the next two seasons. Conflate that by the $16M that's coming off the books from Michael Young, and we're talking about a Rangers payroll well under $100M heading into 2014, meaning literally anyone would be available on both the free agent and trade markets.
As far as 2013 is concerned, we'd be losing between 7.0-8.0 WAR between Harrison and Andrus, and another 4.0 WAR between Cruz and Murphy. That puts us into last place territory.
However, it gives a year of development to Profar (at SS) and Olt (at 1B/COF/DH), keeps Kinsler at 2B, and gives Martin Perez a full year in the rotation. Not taking the prospects we'd be acquiring into account, 2014's lineup/rotation would look something like this:
C - ?1B - Olt/Moreland2B - Kinsler3B - BeltreSS - ProfarLF - ?CF - MartinRF - ?
1 - Darvish2 - Feliz3 - Ogando4 - Perez5 - ?
The question marks would be filled with either (a) the prospects we'd be getting back from Andrus/Harrison/Cruz/Murphy, (b) players we'd parlay from other various trades, or (c) from the free agent market.
If this actually came about, we'd essentially have a limitless supply of capital to work with, making it easier to acquire 1-2 middle of the order bats and one TORP.
Is this going to happen? No. I highly, highly doubt it. Like 100,000-to-1 odds. But is it worth considering for shits and giggles' sake? Absolutely.
Now tell me prospects you'd like to get to fill these holes!
"That puts us into last place territory. "
I would wager that one fact would make this idea a total non-starter for the Rangers' front office. Already having the pieces in hand to be "in the playoff hunt" at worst, they're not going to bail and start over at the bottom in favor of a theoretical "better team in some future year."
I'd just hate to waste any of the 5 years we have left with Darvish rebuilding.
The Front Office has said on numerous occasions that they their main goal is to build a team that is self-sustaining and has a shot at contention year after year. To me that means no true rebuilding period. Keeping prospects that will definitely add to the talent in Arlington and not handcuffing the team into nonsense contracts that won't be conducive to a winning environment. Any of the actions in this post would go against everything the FO has been telling us.
Guys, especially David, let's be real here. In no way, shape, or form am I condoning this sort of plan. I think it's a fun hypothetical, but I don't believe it to be a legitimate course of action by any stretch.
So much of this forum is based off trade proposals that will never materialize. It's mostly a bunch of fan boys not taking the opposing party into account, but rather formulating a bunch of trades in the favor of the Rangers. It's not real.
What I'm doing with this is, I'm taking reality out of the picture altogether. It's a parallel universe that doesn't exist. The main point to my post is displayed in the final four stanzas, mainly asking for your own personal course of action within the parameters I've constructed.
I'll take a quick stab at this. All these trade are a result of Jon Daniels using his power to convince other GMs to play his mind games.
Elvis to STL for Oscar Taveras(OF) and Carlos Martinez(SP).
Harrison to KC for Yordano Ventura(SP) and Jorge Bonaficio(OF).
Cruz to NYM for Domingo Tapia(P).
Taveras and Bonaficio both project as a AllStar OFs. Martinez and Ventura both draw comparisons to Pedro Martinez. Tapia is a Nefti type, young with a plus-plus fastball and working on off speed stuff.
I just threw these names out there because i know about them and think its a good fit. Please dont butcher me too hard. Jon Daniels does not usually involve me in the Rangers trade discussions.
Although it's clear you're invoking the old adage "take one step back and two steps forward", in the case of this organization with its goals, ownership/finances, management, and talent at both the major and minor league level, a major league talent garage sale would amount to simply a step back...nothing more, nothing less. This franchise has broken ground with not only the rejuvenated attendance of its fan base but its newfound international notoriety as well. The aforementioned coupled with its new 3 billion dollar TV deal makes this approach as franchise-changing and irrational as the A-rod signing years ago.PLEASE GOD NO.
There is more reality than alternate reality in Eric's hypothetical. To me it depends on what the team's objective is in 2013, and whether the FO can find the pieces to make it achievable. A lot of this has been hashed, rehashed and reheated, but these are the facts as I see them.
We will lose Josh. Darvish and Harrison, and possibly Ogando are the best starting pitchers. Holland doesn't look like he is recapturing his 2011 form and Colby and Feliz will return late and their possible effectiveness is uncertain at best.
Greinke stays on the west coast, and any TB players are unlikely to make it to Texas without sending Profar.
As far as bats go, J Upton will cost Elvis, and Swisher will cost a lot of money.
So absent a trade or FA signing of note the Rangers will field Soto, Olt/Moreland, Profar, Beltre, Elvis, Kinsler, Martin/Gentry, and Murphy, with Cruz at DH. The rotation looks like Darvish, Harrison, Holland, Ogando, and Perez. The bullpen may lose Adams and Uehara. With luck, one or both of Colby and Feliz return.
This is a team that may get to the playoffs, but will not get very far into them.
A semi-rebuild using Elvis, Harrison, and maybe Olt, as trade pieces, will allow the Rangers to fill some holes (power OF, SP) and give the team the prospects to either develop or trade over the next two years. With a lower payroll the Rangers will be well situated to bid strongly for free agents in 2013 and 2014.
This is not ideal, but it is better than muddling through 2013, losing a year of trade value for Elvis, overpaying for Harrison, and putting Kinsler on the OF or Napoli on first. And let's face it. The Rangers need more and better pitching, and I don't see this developing this off season.
Here is the only Major flaw I see assuming of course that we get the free agents we want in 2014 and win the division. the players that are here are winners and if you gut the team for a push in 2014 your telling them winning this yr doesn't matter as much. what could happen is you destroy the culture of winning pissing off players like Darvish and Beltre not to mention losing a yr of these 2 in there prime. then If the culture gets screwed up it becomes a complete rebuild and all because we wanted to get someone a yr from now.
I could see this happening if the FO can't adequately fill the holes for 2013 this offseason, I don't want to watch a mediocre team next year if they can't fill at least one of the MOTOB or TORP roles. I think filling either one through trade or FA adequately and getting a decnt bullpen arm or 2 is sufficient to contend and possibly be the favorites in the West next year. But if they can't fill one of those major holes before the seaon I think it makes sense to get value for Harrison and Andrus via trade for prospects that are failry close to major league ready. I don't know what prospects they could get but that's JDs job.
The other thing is, it sounds like the 2014 FA class is going to be garbage, so with the additional payroll the Rangers will be working with, they will also not have a whole lot of premium talent to chose from. That's why I think it is worth it to go over budget for Greinke this year, or back load the contract or whatever you have to do to get him here, because next year there will be nobody of the quality of FA that Greinke is to spend our additional money on. I'm not saying give him $200 mil, if the Dodgers wanna blow everyone else out of the water then fine, but I think it would be worth it to maybe mid-load his contract so that he isn't making $25 mil in years 5-7 of his deal or whatever. That way he is getting compensated failry when he is most productive, and when he starts to drop off, so does his salary, so the Rangers aren't handicapped by it. Idk if there is any precedent for significant midloading or if he would accept a deal like that but I would consider it if it makes sense financially.
If they can sign Greinke, then you deal for Upton, give them Andrus, just do it, and boom, you're favorites in the west with a couple bullpen arms and a cheap catcher. But if you can't get Upton or Greinke, and I see no reason they can't do one or the other or both, then I think a minor rebuild for 2013 is an ok idea, I do hate to waste a year of Yu's prime though. But I would also hate to watch a mediocre team "contend" for a title.
Andrus/Grimm/Odor for Tavares
Harrison/Cruz for Meyers
Perez/Moreland/Sardinas/Borbon for Shields
Sign Greinke & SchoppachResign Hamilton to play 1B ...Yes.
2013 Positions and Salaries are in parenthesis
LineupMartin (CF)-L (3.25)Kinsler (2B) (13)Hamilton (1B)-L (17)Beltre (3B) (16)Murphy (DH)-L (5.6)Myers (RF) (.5)Tavares (LF)-L (.5)Soto/Schoppach (C) (3)Profar (SS)-Switch (.5)
BenchOlt (.5)L. Garcia (.5)Gentry (.5)Soto/Schoppach (3)
RotationDarvish (9.25)Greinke (20)Shields (9)Holland (3.2)Ogando (.5)
BullpenNathan (7)Vet FA (5)Vet FA (3)Ross (.5)Font (.5)Scheppers (.5)Kirkman (.5)
Misc.Nefti (3.1) - Midseason reinforcementLewis (2) - Midseason reinforcementFeldman (.6) - BuyoutYoung (10) JD pays $10 mil to ship him anywhere, other team pays $6 mil (JD mindtrick)
Major Trade Chips Left:OltBuckelGentry/MartinHollandOgandoL. Garcia
2014 Expendable Free Agents:Murphy - (-5.6)Nathan - if Nefti takes over (-7)Lewis - (-2)Young - Salary Drops (-10)Feldman - $600k drops (-.6)Soto - (-3)Total: -$28.2
2014 Free Agent Needs:CatcherBullpen
2013 25 Man Roster: $138.752014 25 Man Roster: Roughly the same $$$ with increases in arbitration and salaries (get creative with Greinke and Hamilton's salary structure)
Honestly, this option is starting to look less and less farfetched.
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