What is your opinion of the A.J. Pierzynski signing?
MJH on accountability
Many here posit that going hard after Zach Greinke this offseason is the most prudent way to return the Texas Rangers to World Series contention. But is a 6 or possibly 7 year $150 million plus commitment really the answer? I feel that there are other frontline starters with as much or more potential to excel in RBIA that don't carry nearly the same financial investment.
Take Cliff Lee for instance, a package of Cruz, Holland, Olt, and another low tier prospect or two could easily bring him back to Texas. JD could demand the inclusion of LHP Antonio Bastardo and back-up catcher Erik Kratz as well as some cash thereby fortifying the rotation with a frontline starter, bolstering the catching position, and adding a lefty with an insane K/9 ratio to a predominantly right-handed bullpen all the while barely increasing the 2013 payroll.
Additionally, James Shields is said to be on the market, and could be had for a package revolving around Moreland and Perez. If Texas were to bring in Adam Laroche to play first and promote Martinez at catcher, or bring back Napoli to play catcher and platoon with Young at first, Texas would be set in the infield. Resign Uehara and ship out Profar and Grimm to Miami for Stanton, and the Rangers have all but punched their ticket to the Fall Classic.
Rotation: Darvish, Lee, Shields, Harrison, Ogando (Lewis and Feliz coming midseason)Bullpen: CL Nathan, Uehara, Bastardo, Ross, Scheppers, Font, KirkmanBatting Order: Andrus, Murphy, Stanton, Beltre, Laroche, Kinsler, Young, Kratz/Martinez, Gentry/Martin
I would LOVE james shields
My problem with trading for pitching is that we're going to have to give up pitching. And frankly, the Ranger's aren't in a position to do that right now. By adding Lee and subtracting Holland from the rotation what do you really gain in the overall scheme of 162? We need more depth.
Somebody I'd be open to bringing in as a reclamation project is...Ubaldo Jimenez. I think he could be had with a a decent low-tier prospect or two. Throw in another prospect and the Indians might eat a couple of the $5.5M he's owed before hitting free agency in 2014. Hell, maybe they want Julio Borbon
Lee's value is greatly gutted by his overpriced salary at an advancing age. For him to command the kind of return you propose (Cruz, Holland, Olt, and prospects, lots of talent and none of whom really have a bad contract), the Phillies would have to eat most if not all of his salary, which they are reportedly averse to doing.
Barring that, their return in trade would in large measure be the removal of $25 mill a year from their payroll. Just like when A-Rod went to NY from Texas, Philly will almost certainly have to pay some of it to get rid of the rest, no matter what, and they'd also be unlikely to get much talent in return, because the overpriced contract that comes with him is pretty much a value killer.
F Cliff Lee....Get James Shields!
Yeah, if you're going to throw in that many players, Philly would have to eat 75-80% of the money owed to him. The less you give up (Olt + Grimm or something), the more money we'd have to pay. If the Rangers and Phillies were trying to get crazy with some sort of deal like that, we might as well look to get Carlos Ruiz out of the deal. Either way, extremely doubtful the Phillies would eat as much money as the Rangers would like them to eat, and for that the Phillies would be better off just pocketing him and letting him toss up another great season.
Also, not sure how it came about on this board, but I don't know where everyone gets off thinking Mitch Moreland is a valuable trade chip. He's basically a replacement-level first baseman who shows glimpses of prodigious power, but really doesn't hit lefties enough to warrant an everyday starting gig. Especially to a team like Tampa who's looking to significantly upgrade its offense. To get James Shields, you need to look closer at younger, higher-ceiling players. They'd be much more interested in the +/- Olt would potentially give them at first base than Mitch Moreland, and even at that Olt is only to get the conversation started. Olt is a bang or bust prospect, a lot like Martin Perez.
Oh, and Stanton is going to cost way more than Profar and Grimm.
I'm hearing that the Rays want a package like they got for Matt Garza for Shields...so Perez and Moreland would only be a start. Now, I don't think they'll get five players like they did for Garza (who is younger and had more years of control left), but I do think that two more propects would have to be added.
As I've said before, I would love me some Shields. But I would prefer to avoid trading away Profar, if possible. Perez and Olt are fair game to me. The question is, what else would it take?
Maybe we need to talk up our lesser-known prospects. Sure we'll end up giving up one or two of our best prospects, but for the rest of the package we should try to get them to take quantity over quality. Let the shilling begin:
Leury Garcia (2B/SS) - decent and versatile defensively, hit .292 at AA-Frisco so he's almost ready to go;
Chris McGuinness (1B) - had great year at Frisco so he's almost ready to go, had great AFL season, lots of power & draws walks = Carlos Pena in the making (let hyperbole be your friend);
Miguel de los Santos (LHR) - K's people like crazy, prob. will start the year at AAA so he's almost ready to go
Johan Yan (RHR) - solid relief prospect, unique sidearmer throws heavy sinker and groundball pitchers are welcome in TB's hitter-friendly park, maybe a year away
Wilfredo Boscan (RHS) - solid starting prospect, lighting it up in winter league, could start the year in AAA so he's almost ready
And others. Every trade sees some throw-ins involved. It'll be interesting which of our 2nd-tier prospects end up in deals.
Kristen, I like that you're throwing out some new names, but we're basically dealing with the same thing. When teams are dealing away sure-things, they want sure-things in return. Just to give some slight perspective on the prospects you've listed:
Garcia -- utility infielder/pinch-runner/defensive replacement
McGuinness -- platoon bat
de los Santos -- reliever
Yan -- reliever
Boscan -- fringe #4-#5 starter, probably long-reliever
Relievers are the cheapest, most easily replaceable players on roster. They hold very little trade value unless we're talking about Chapman or Kimbrel. Leury Garcia doesn't have much use in the future here in Texas, would certainly have more value elsewhere. But despite his 70-80 grade speed and solid defensive range, he has poor plate discipline, which isn't good if you're a light-hitter who needs to get on base. McGuinness is basically a throw in no matter where he would go.
What about eggs. Next. Right?
Olt and perez for sheilds. Done.
Why would you trade for Lee if you're going to take on his salary? He has $87.5 mil guaranteed for the next 3 years and possibly $102.5 mil over the next 4 if he vests. Why would paying a 5 years younger Greinke NOT be the better alternative?
I don't think just Olt and Perez would get Shields, TB is willing to trade him, but i do't think they are "shopping" him. That being said I LOVE LOVE LOVE the idea of signing Adam Laroche, he would give us a LH 1B that could actually play everyday. That signing would also free up Moreland who you could easily center a deal around to send him to the Trop. A Moreland+Perez+low level prospect could get the job done.
If your going to take on a bad contract (lee's 87.5 over 3 yrs) with out getting them to pay for any of it then they need to take our bad contract (MY 16 for 1 yr). all the rest is just fluff ( i need a catcher and an out fielder they need a starting pitcher and what ever else they need) the sticking point of any deal like this will be who pays the 87.5 million. If I'm JD I'm not taking Cliff and MY that's 103.5 million but if you take 16 million off then we could probably work out the rest.
Perez, Moreland, Martin and Grimm should be enough for Shields. They'll be addressing 3 and possibly 4 spots on their roster. 1B, CF, a reliever and possible #5 starter with upside. 4 MLB players totaling less than $4M in 2013 which in turn saved them around $6M with Shields going off their payroll.
This would mean Olt would be the primary 1B with Young being the backup. Going with Gentry at CF and Engel Beltre of the bench. Profar in 2B and Kinsler in LF.
This would put the payroll around $113M with like $20M left to address the bullpen and catcher position.
Then this idea came to mind in the last ten minutes...What would you think of trading Holland to Toronto for Arencibia and CF Rasmus they're both 26. Rasmus hits left handed and could realistically hit 30 HRS with Texas. Even though I don't like the OBP of either, their pop in their bats would make up for the difference.
We would then go hard after Haren (2yrs/$25M+incentives) or Sanchez (3yrs/$42M+) to fill our #4 spot in the rotation. That would leave us around $10M to sign to relievers like Uehara and Broxton.
It would put the payroll around $133M which the Rangers can easily afford. This would blue work if either starter agrees to get paid $10M and each reliever $5M in their first year of their contract.
This would give us a legit lineup with 3 30 HR potential outfielders.
Premium speed at the top, combined with respectable power from 5 hitters in the lineup not counting Olt.
Pretty impressive rotation...take those top 4 in the postseason then Ogando and Felix reinforcing the bullpen...wow!Lewis for long relief? Why not...
The bullpen:Kirkman, Buckel., Scheppers, Uehara, Broxton and Nathan.
i see 5 potential 30 HR hitters..
True, that's why I said 3 potential 30 HR OUTFIELDERS, then mentioned 5 hitters with respectable power ;)
Good effort, NC17, but I'm skeptical. I have no idea what Haren is looking for but I would expect it to be more than 2 years, although I can see some teams reluctant to give that to him given his lackluster year. On the other hand, Jeff Passan says Sanchez's asking price is something like $90m for 6 years, and that he's afraid he'll actually get that much. I can't imagine that your suggestion would even be entertained.
I'm a bit bearish on Rasmus, but I wouldn't lose a lot of sleep if we traded for him. Regarding the HRs, I'll say that pop is nice, but I'm not convinced that OBP isn't still more important than HRs, despite the Orioles' and A's' recent success.
Look at the last few years if you need to, but you'll see OBP correlates well with wRC+ and, I suppose more importantly, actual runs. Despite struggling terribly in the last couple weeks of the season, the Rangers still led the league in runs this year despite ranking only 5th in HRs. The Yankees hit 45 more HRs than the Rangers, but still scored 4 fewer runs. Finally, I'll point to the Giants, who won 2 titles in the last 3 years. In 2010 they ranked 10th in HRs (tied with the Rangers, amusingly), and this year they were dead last in HRs but still were 12th in runs scored. They were 8th in OBP.
I realize that their ballpark is more conducive to situational hitting than HRs, but I still think the point stands that OBP, and situational hitting, is more valuable than HRs. That's what seems to be working best in this era. HRs are nice, but I don't think I'd want a team full of Adam Dunns. What good are HRs if no one's ever on base? They're no more effective than 2 or 3 hits strung together.
you certainly did haha mistake on my part. That trade really could help out the Rangers, but i'm not sure if the Jys would be willing to part with Rasmus. They are trying to win now and I don't think they would be willing to part with a young controllable OF'er in Rasmus. Unless we really blew them away.
Can't believe people want Haren. Know what his GB/FB has been the past 3 years? 0.99, 1.12, and 1.00. Want to know what his HR/FB was last year? 12.8%. Stinky. He's a flyball pitcher. Not surprisingly then his career record at TBIA is poopy: 7 appearances, 5.05 ERA, 1.585 WHIP, 52 H in only 41 IP, etc. Just horrible.
And why would you want to go 2 years for a guy with back issues? Before Haren had his option declined by LAA, the Angels and Cubs were working out a trade for him. The Cubs ultimately cut things off because of Haren's injury so why should we jump in there? They're more desperate for starting pitching than we are and they declined. We're a playoff-caliber team. Going for someone's sloppy seconds is something only small-market/perenially bad/desperate teams do. We have the ability to do way better thanks to 1. having lots of dough available when Hammy leaves; 2. having lots of attractive prospects to deal. Nay to the soft-tossing weenie.
I mentioned those guys would be throw-ins or secondary pieces only, not the key parts of a package, kinda like how fringe prospect Beau Jones was a throw-in in the Teixeira deal. We should still talk them up anyway so teams are tempted by them instead of our better 2nd-tier prospects like Buckel, etc. Let's see how good of a salesdude J.D. is. We need to clear some room on the 40-man before the Rule V so I think we see some of the mentioned guys or other 2nd-tier prospects gone in deals at the Winter Meetings.
Yeah I read that report on Sanchez after I write this. But I guess I wasn't far off on his salary demand per year wise. I think 6 years is too long the longest I would be comfortable would be 4 years. But then that would be a long shot to acquire him. Haren might be looking for a one year type of deal to redeem himself of the rare down year he had. Maybe a $12M plus incentives will do since he already collected the $2M buyout from LAA.I agree with your observation regarding OBP.
Just because LAA declined his option doesn't want they don't want him back, in fact they absolutely do. I believe last year was the first time in his entire career that he landed on the DL. Although LAA are the favorites to sign him I wouldn't call a perennial top starter and horse a "sloppy second"
Who would you rather hand the ball to in game 3 of any series in the post season Holland or Haren? I believe anyone in the right mind would choose the latter.
He might be looking for a one year deal to redeem himself for a better contract next offseason who knows. Stay tuned...but the key starter we sure need is Shields as Grienke's is gonna go upwards of $120M and wouldn't be wise for the Rangers to go that far.
I believe I am in my right mind, and that Derek Holland threw up the finest postseason start in the history of the franchise during the World Series in 2011.
@ NC 17
But I just pointed how has gotten crushed in TBIA even prior to last season because of his extreme flyball tendencies, plus starting-pitching desperate CHIC didn't want him because of his injury issues, and most importantly just because he has been a TORP in the past doesn't mean he is one still. I wouldn't devote $12 mil each of the next 2 seasons to a guy coming off injury. You really think he deserves to make more than Darvish each of the next 2 years? I don't.
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