What is your opinion of the A.J. Pierzynski signing?
MJH on accountability
I could see the Royals trading for a Shields/Lester/Harrison type and then signing a Sanchez/Lohse type via FA. They probably need the former to happen before they could convince the latter to sign. Thus the urgency we're seeing before the meetings. Wouldn't necessarily be a bad rotation at all and certainly a potential playoff caliber team if both were to happen. I don't think it's World Series caliber, but anything can happen when you get to October. I think the gist of what they're thinking is just having a chance to make the playoffs sooner rather than later. And I don't think you can argue that point at all.
At this point in their careers you don't trade a Profar or Myers. The risk was taken when they were signed/drafted. They have overcome the hurdles of development and are ready to play MLB ball. There is too much upside relative to their future cost to trade for players with short term contracts. You build around Profar and Myers. You don't trade unless you get a stupidly lopsided return.
Myers could be the next Willie Mays...or he could be the next Delmon Young. I certainly see the risk and see the benifits, but the thing I don't see is the Rangers being in a position to make a trade like this. The rotation struggled down the stretch last year and now we would be trading away the most consistent pitcher of 2012. In a different time, and maybe with different players I would make the trade as a GM. The Rangers need some mlb help in what could come in a blockbuster like trade, not taking a chance on a young stud CF.
These prospects are such sure things that there is no way they won't be perennial all stars...
Except when they aren't able to hit against pitchers in the winter leagues.http://rangersblog.dallasnews.com/2012/11/profar-on-the-bench.html/
(not saying Profar isn't going to be awesome, just that these evaluations are perfect examples of what Behavioral economists won the Nobel Prize teaching- We do not evaluate rationally- we overweight the scenario we want most, we are incredibly loss averse (imagining what happens if we lose something incredibly valuable, ignoring the gain and reduction in risk because we can't adequately account for all of the scenarios that could occur that don't result in our best case scenario..etc))
@Aggiecurtis. While humans may be forced into different levels of irrationality by virtue of our genes, humans are unique in recognizing the fallibilities of their mind and body. WAR and other statistical measures help evaluators balance very volatile personal projections with unmoldable facts. Like selling a house. You may be attached to it and have a list if reasons why it should sell at 100x but if you have 10 recent comparables showing values of 50x you better adjust your pricing.
Yes, most human beings may be risk averse, but it more a spectrum than a set condition. Wealthy people are more risk averse than poor people, and some averseness has been shown to be economically irrational, establishing a situation exploitable by someone familiar with the true odds if success and failure. There are no true odds in baseball evaluation, but there are lot of objective facts that can keep an evaluator honest with his projections.
I forget who wrote the article, I think it was fangraphs, but they basically averaged the WAR of the top 10 prospects since 2005. Only 20-30% became All-Stars and only a select few are on a HOF career pace. So take a step back when saying there isn't any risk in prospect and how they're a sure thing. They're not. That's why Myers and Profar are still considered prospects. Thus the Royals are considering all options.
Aggiecurt and P1Stefen, thanks for adding a little common sense to this thread. Trout-itis has lobotomized too may brains here, and I'm tired of reading all the assumptions that touted prospect equates to almost certain superstar..
I'm just tired its almost 3am but I'm mostly tired of being the runner up or the never was. Nothing ventured nothing gained, I forgot who wrote that article.
Oh my god, Wil Myers will never be traded for a Shields/Harrison/Lester typer! We're all idiots bc WAR means everything and top prospects are sure things! Oh wait........
Stupid trade for KC.
Long term? Most likely. Short term? No. Their lineup can go up against anyone's and if their pitching can pick it up, especially Santana, this team will turn some heads. It's all about making it to October and see what happens. They have a legit shot at that now.
Confirmation bias at its finest. Well done, Private.
Just because the trade materialized does not make one side of this argument correct and the other wrong. According to anyone who knows anything about anything, this was a lopsided trade to the highest degree, of course with Tampa coming out as the winner.
You can poo-poo WAR all you want, that's your ignorant prerogative. Tampa Bay just cleaned Kansas City out of over $100 million in surplus value, and shed Shields's $21 million owed the next two years while they were at it.
The Rangers have a lot of work to do.
I would expect nothing less from the biggest tool on this site.
I've already explained why the Royals would make/ made this move and countless journalists will too tomorrow. I've never "poo-poo'd" WAR, I simply said the Royals are looking to capitalize sooner rather than later. It's your choice to be ignorant of that simple fact WAR doesn't mean everything.
I've already explained why the Royals would make/ made this move and countless journalists will too tomorrow.
So because the trade happened, that makes the trade okay? Because you explained it in a forum on BBTiA that justifies the Royals throwing away one of the best prospects in baseball for a fringe #2 starter? Is that what you're saying, Private? Because that's a pretty lousy argument, if you ask me.
I've never "poo-poo'd" WAR, I simply said the Royals are looking to capitalize sooner rather than later. It's your choice to be ignorant of that simple fact WAR doesn't mean everything.
"Oh, hey, I'm not gonna poo-poo WAR, I'm saying it's just simply a fact that it doesn't mean anything."
Coming from a guy that's been all over Shields' nuts, I find it comical that he's now a "fringe #2 starter". You keep missing the point, which I get it...that's what you do bc you're the most arrogant person on this site, it has nothing about the trade being "okay". I could give 2 shits that the trade is right or wrong, it's that it happened. For the same reasons that I explained, that you again keep looking over and/or are just blind or deaf to such words, WAR doesn't mean everything****. Not "WAR doesn't mean anything", like you so eloquently seemed to misquote me on...everything***. You would think a professional blogger like yourself would know the difference between these words. May need to check out dictionary.com before your next earth shattering blog.
Not sure where you're getting me being on James Shields's nuts, but whatever. I also don't know where you get off relating me missing the point being "the most arrogant person on this site." Again, whatever. There have been many before you. There will be plenty after you.
Where I'm getting with this is that you were so excited to dig up old forum topics just to say, "See! See! I told you guys!" That's cool and all, but it's a lot like saying a guy going 4-4 in a game means he's the best hitter in the lineup. It's cool when it happens, but it really doesn't prove anything. It's a small sample.
The entire basis of my argument versus yours is that you are comfortable trading away top prospects because they've yet to accomplish anything. You like the sure things. You think the short-term gains of people like James Shields and Matt Harrison are worth it enough to deal away top prospects like Wil Myers, or, if we're relating everything to the Rangers, Jurickson Profar. It's a fair analogy, because they are basically on the same prospect level, just occupying different positions.
And whether you like it or not, you're talking about WAR. You are bringing in automatic WAR (Shields, Harrison) and giving up future WAR. The future WAR is going to win out. The Royals are going to pay Shields $21M over the next two years. The Rays are going to pay Wil Myers less than $1M in that time. Think about it, kid.
Now that this trade is done, what is emerging is that the Royals' internal evaluation of Myers' future wasn't nearly as rosy as BA and the others who ranked him so highly. Reportedly they felt his future wasn't even as promising as other bats they have and were trading "overvalued' and "surplus" for something they desperately wanted, a TORP for their rotation.
Maybe it's telling that they chose to cash out his value now, before he had a chance for a single AB in the majors. Once he's in in the bigs, the rest of the baseball world will get to observe firsthand what the Royals think they already know from having him in their system.
If Myers is a Ruben Mateo in the making, rather than the next Trout, Harper, or Stanton like so many are assuming, this trade will have KC landing a TORP for their staff at quite a discount, and the guesses at his "future WAR" and "surplus value" will turn out to be massively overestimated. For all we think we know, at this point all we truly know is his play in the minors, and concerning his future WAR and surplus value (if any). we really do not know anything more than our own guesses (which can be right, or wildly wrong).
TB may have scored big. But they traded away a proven commodity for a lottery ticket, and only time will tell whether that was a good swap or not.
Drayton Moore just got ninja'd.
This was an absolute heist. He offered Wil Myers straight up for Shields...and got rejected!
I imagine Friedman hung up the phone afterwards and thought, "Noone is going to believe I turned that down, but I'm going to JD NINJA fleece this dumb SOB!"
...and he did. I'm beginning to wonder if Moore has an out-clause that kicks in millions for incompetence. When JD gets promoted to Godfather status of the Rangers, I want Friedman.
Wrong again Eric. Thanks for trying to put words in my mouth...again. I would expect nothing less from an arrogant douche like yourself who actually gains satisfaction from the statement: "There have been many before you. There will be plenty after you." 2 words: Douche Bag. It's pretty funny actually. Especially when you write things like "I'm Eric Reining...I'm right in front of your fucking face". Ha Cool story. Your entire basis of our argument is wrong. Consider that a character flaw....or maybe just a reading comprehension flaw. I said capitalize on the Royals dangling of prospect Myers for Harrison. I've never said trade Profar for Shields. Price? Yes. Shields? Hell no. The real basis of our argument was the very simple fact that the Royals are trying to win now. You tried to make a ton of people sound like fools and idiots, instead of taking everything in from both sides. The Royals were actually willing to trade Myers for people not named Price. It happened. Again, it really happened. Maybe you'll tone it down a little, since this is a fan site where people with all types of statistical knowledge come. I doubt it though. Even though you know quite a bit, you're extremely overbearing and make it unenjoyable for most.
Especially when you're a 22 year old professional blogging college drop-out calling me "kid"... Hilarious.
The odds that the Royals win this trade are very slim. Most likely, TB wins, if not in a landslide.
You're funny. I mean, just look at yourself. All this is between you and I is a little petty philosophical disagreement. I'm not worked up about it. To be honest, I couldn't care any less -- not about you, what you have to say, or people like you who believe something is being accomplished by taking shots.
What I mainly find to be funny is that you are so animated in your forum posts when they are directed at me. You try to say, "you're extremely overbearing and make it unenjoyable for most." Oh yeah? Well you're coming back to the topics and showing me your best diction and brightest skills of protest and contention. You're quoting me on things I've said from other threads, and you know my age and history in college. I bet you pay attention to every word I write on BBTiA as potential fuel for the fires you try to cook up when you and I are in disagreement.
And me? I don't even care. I skim over your mom and pop shop baseball opinions until you come at me foul. I think that's what you don't realize: I don't attack anyone until they come at me first. Even in this thread, I was just simply trying to valuate what a potential trade would look like from a WAR perspective, and then the anti-SABR crowd came to tell me how wrong I was.
Keep trying, soldier. I'm rooting for you.
Please don't compare Profar to Myers...that would be like comparing Trout to Dominic Brown, it's just not the same. That is all.
It was an analogy. Profar is more valuable than Myers because he's a SS as compared to a COF, but in terms of who was the best prospect in each system, they are each #1.
"And me? I don't even care. I skim over your mom and pop shop baseball opinions until you come at me foul."
"Keep trying, soldier. I'm rooting for you."
As an objective poster with no beef against anyone involved: yeah, you come across like a huge prick there.
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