The rays are said to be listening on shields and hellickson. Which do want and what would you give up. IMO shields could actually be a better option than Greinke from a payroll perspective depending on what they want. He's a consistent 4.5 WAR pitcher and produced a gb/fb ratio of better than 50% this year.

I would go after Shields, I like Hellickson, but i feel that Shields is tailored to succeed in RBIA with his ground ball vs. fly ball tendencies. The fact that he is under club control for only two years and is a pricey player (under Tampa Bay's parameters especially given their apparent intent to retain David Price throughout his arbitration) should make it easier for the Rays to part with him as opposed to the young and cheap Hellickson. That being said I feel like the Rangers require an established frontline pitcher for the short term as opposed to a guy like Hellickson who admittedly has a fairly high ceiling, but whose acquisition would be redundant longterm with guys like Feliz, Ross, and Perez potentially vying for rotation spots in 2014. As far as a deal is concerned, Tampa is bare at pitching in the upper levels of their system, while needing outfield and 1st base help at the major league level. A package like Moreland, Perez, Font, and a lower level outfield prospect with good offensive tools should be a fair package for both parties. The Rangers have acquired themselves a frontline starter who as of now replaces what would be Perez's slot in the rotation and can either insert Olt at first and retain Napoli or go after Laroche and keep Olt as a trade chip (I would prefer the latter). The Rays in turn acquire a cheap, serviceable, lefty first baseman whose power wouldn't be diminished by Tropicana Field (the guy's power is maybe a notch below Hamilton) as well as a guy who coming into 2012 was the top ranked left-handed pitching prospect in baseball, and would shed salary as well.

I'm pretty much in line with your thinking, but it shouldn't take Moreland, Perez, and Font. I think the rangers would be over paying with that package I think.

Moreland makes alot of sense for the Rays. Makes alot of sense for us to especially if we could pickup LaRoche. I'd love to get Shields. Not sure about Hellickson though.

Ya, I actually threw in Font last second because I didn't think the package would be enough, but I'd imagine they'd want another pitcher in addition to Moreland and Perez.

You're preaching to the choir - I would trade for Shields in a heartbeat and Moreland is the perfect place to start. I'd prefer 2 years of Shields (and maybe more) to 6 years of Greinke at perhaps twice the AAV.

I'm not sure about Hellickson... he's cheap and controllable through 2017 so I don't think TB would trade him unless the Rangers (or whoever else) blew them away.

Moreland, Perez, Font and a lower-level pitcher will not be enough to acquire to either of them.

Based on his track record, and being that he's still in the prime of his career, James Shields seems like a sure bet to produce about 8.0 WAR over the next two years. Mitch Moreland is basically a replacement-level first baseman, Perez still isn't ready for the show (and it's questionable if he's anything more than a middle-of-the-rotation pitcher), Font is a reliever (the least valuable of any position), and so forth.

I'm not a proponent of actually going through with it, because I'm interested in a bat, but Elvis Andrus straight up for James Shields would be a pretty even deal for both sides. Assuming his option is picked up, Shields stands to make $21M over the next two years. Elvis is at a little over $11M. That extra $10M in value could constitute us recouping a prospect if Tampa wasn't interested in eating $5M or so of the money owed.

If Andrus wouldn't be traded for Upton he wont go anywhere...

The Moreland/Perez/Font deal is a good one, and might actually be over paying a little bit. I would take that deal easily though. Then sign Laroche and you are pretty well set.

I'm not sure why Andrus keeps getting put into these equations, when the Rangers have made it clear (over and over) he's simply not available in trade. Gotta figure out another way to do it or look elsewhere.

I'm not a GM and I have no privy to the Rangers' thinking, but it's clear that the Rangers could move Elvis. You can call this a conspiracy theory, but the Rangers would probably not make it widely known if they shopped Elvis.

I would love Shields. Love love love. Hellickson isn't bad either, but I'm less excited about him due to his inexperience. His SIERA, FIP, and xFIP suggest his ERA has been better than it should be, and until he has proven he can outperform his peripherals like Weaver and guys like him, he strikes me as a slightly younger version of Matt Harrison. Don't get me wrong, I love Harrison, but at least he's a groundball pitcher. Hellickson allows more flyballs than Shields, and flyballs turn into HRs at RBiA. Plus, as he's cheaper and has more years left than Shields, and would likely cost more.

Darvish, Shields, Harrison, Ogando, Holland. I'd put that up against any rotation. Even the Angels', should they sign Greinke. Shields excites me just a touch less than Greinke does. If we don't sign Greinke, Shields is probably the most exciting guy we could trade for, since guys like Kershaw and Felix aren't going anywhere.

Just a couple of years ago, many of those being sought in trades today were in a way the same as Perez, Font, etc. are today. Develop what we have or let some other trigger happy GM make the mistake by giving up the farm for Andrus or ???????. Develop and trade from strength.

I'm not sure why Andrus keeps getting put into these equations, when the Rangers have made it clear (over and over) he's simply not available in trade. Gotta figure out another way to do it or look elsewhere.

If you believe everything the media tells you, that's your fault.

Big business involves big money, and big money means you need to be good at what you're doing to be able to sustain. Whether you like it or not, deception is completely necessary. Deception and the Rangers go hand-in-hand.

I'm talking about how almost no one believed the Rangers had won the rights to Yu Darvish, how Jairo Beras was ever signed, how we came out of nowhere to get Cliff Lee in 2010, how we came out of nowhere to get Adrian Beltre in 2011. I could go on and on.

I bet a week ago Marlins fans thought it would be impossible to lose their $100M shortstop and two best pitchers. But it happened.

T.R. Sullivan, Richard Durrett, writers from various newspapers: They write what they are told. That's all they know. They make a call to someone in the Rangers organization who is paid to do whatever the higher-ups tell them to, so if the front office says, "We don't want the perception to be that Elvis Andrus is available," then that's the way it is. The "sources" relay the information to the DMN, T.R., Richard Durrett, etc., and the writers run with it; the fans who read it believe it. Well, most of them.

But what sense would it make if the Rangers told their PR guys, "Yeah, tell everyone Elvis Andrus is available and we are actively looking to trade him"? It means you'd be dealing with a clubhouse of players who aren't stoked on the idea, a fan base that would cry foul, and most importantly, 29 other GM's who now know Elvis isn't as valuable as he was the day before. Franchises lose leverage in trade negotiations when everyone knows they actually want to trade someone.

Maybe Andrus gets traded, maybe he doesn't. Just don't be naive.

Eric
I know you think the real value is to trade Elvis but I don't think he's going anywhere! (hopefully ever) and I'll tell you why "Adrian Gonzolez" Rangers had him knew he was going to be hugh but Tex was here and so they let him go. JD was part of that deal and I highly doubt he will ever let one of his allstars walk away to play for someone else again! The rangers have too many trades pieces to let go of someone like Elvis or Profar. So unless your talking some amazing trade Price for Elvis straight up or Stantton for Profar straight up those two aren't going anywhere.
If you would like I'll make a bet $1 (that way no hurt feeling and everyone gets paid) Elvis and Profar are both on this team come spring training.

eric nailed it on why the Rangers probably wouldn't make it known if they are actually willing to trade Elvis (I mentioned it briefly, but didn't expound).

Eric, I trust that the facts are more likely to come from people in the know, and those that talk to them ...and that ignoring them is going to be an exercise in vanity and stupidity about 99% of the time.

The Rangers have refused any and every overture to discuss Andrus in a trade. If you want to max his value, you leave his name out there and ask for the moon, but they aren't doing that.

I think those who have reported the situation and the Rangers' attitude have it pegged accurately.

JD regularly uses the media as pawns. I think this is merely another example of exactly that. I'm with Eric it would be naive to think that Elvis is not available.

@David

...and that ignoring them is going to be an exercise in vanity and stupidity about 99% of the time.

I tend to think believing everything you see on TV and read on the Internet is what's actually stupid. Difference of opinion.

The Rangers have refused any and every overture to discuss Andrus in a trade. If you want to max his value, you leave his name out there and ask for the moon, but they aren't doing that.

(a) You don't know the Rangers have refused any overtures. That's just you projecting based off what you've read. For all we know JD has already agreed to terms on a trade, he's just waiting for the right time (like after Josh Hamilton signs elsewhere). (b) Your second sentence, again, is backwards. The Diamondbacks making it publicly known that Justin Upton is available has lowered his trade value. The Marlins saying there is "no chance" they move Mike Stanton keeps his value much higher. (I'm using this as an example; Mike Stanton is the more valuable commodity regardless, but you see my point.)

@Eric....I understand your line of thinking, but I think it is very safe to say that as much as you might pretend you know about baseball, you haven't a clue about sports writers and what they know or don't know. Trust me on this.

@T.O.

I think it's safe to say that whatever JD and the front office are doing they're not going to broadcast it to anyone. Especially in such a weak FA market where they figure to be players on the two top FA's available. It wouldn't take a rocket scientist to figure out that these writers are simply repeating what they're fed. It doesn't make it 100% true.

Eric, just to be clear, I didn't come anywhere close to saying that we should "believe everything we see and hear on the internet." That's your attempt to recast my argument, rather than discuss my actual point.

You were taking the stance we should DISBELIEVE anything anyone says, at any time, on any trade-discussion topic, and my point is that I find that to be absurd. So what I did say, is that those who make the decisions, and those who talk to them, are the best source of understanding what's going on - and far better than simply deciding that no one knows anything. When the universal feedback we get from them is that Andrus is a non-starter of an idea when the Rangers talk trade, it's ostrich-like to keep proposing trades that include him as the feature asset from the Rangers.

Or let me put it another way - I don't think YOU have a better feel for what's happening with the Rangers and their trade talks/intentions than the Richard Durretts and T R Sullivans of the world who make their living cultivating relationships with baseball insiders, quietly talking to those who know what's going on, and keeping us as informed as they can without violating confidences. When they UNIVERSALLY tell us that the Rangers are not willing to discuss Andrus in a trade, there's a 99% chance or better that's exactly the case.

Talking about stupidity...is ignoring the fact that Andrus will command a contract easily over $100M. With the Yankees, Dodgers, Boston to name a few of the teams that would be most interested in him and with BIG pockets. Boras isn't stupid enough to tell Andrus that signing am extension with the Rangers is in his best interest (and it isn't) and Daniels likewise KNOWS that Andrus days as a Ranger are numbered (and it sucks cus he's my favorite player) and when you have THE #1 prospect in baseball which happens to be a SS...it would be STUPID and unintelligent baseball BUSINESS decision to pay Andrus $100M+++ when you can pay an elite defensive SS with high ceiling $500K/yr. That's why trading him now for a top starter makes the most sense. It's our biggest need besides catcher.

YES ANDRUS IS AVAILABLE, EVEN HE AND BORAS KNOWS IT :D

I disagree I think there is a strong chance Elvis is a Ranger for life. He obviously likes it here and he is/will be one of the superstars of this team. I really do not see him traded maybe he walks a s a FA, however, I really think JD and the rest of the organization will do whatever they can to sign him longterm. I say this because he is still growing as a hitter, will he ever be the ARod o fthis generation, no, but he will have a little more pop as time goes on and Wash turns the kid loose more. Profar, may be a better hitter right now but I can see where both will be Rangers long term. To me Profar right now would be better for the Rangers lineup than Kinsler. I think JD knows this. SO I agree with what the writers say, Texas will nto discuss Profar or Andrus right now unless they get a Tex type deal which makes the team better short term and long term.

NC17, we all understand your point. Andrus is going to be too expensive to keep, And of course the Rangers know it as well.

But they don't stand to lose him until after the 2014 season. And Andrus doesn't HAVE TO be traded (or even discussed in trade) by the Rangers this off-season.

Obviously the idea that Andrus COULD be made available at some point is something everyone knows. Every team in baseball can see what we see. But by all accounts, the Rangers aren't interested in taking any action this off-season. So that's that - and the roster for 2013 is going to be created in a different fashion, besides using Andrus as a trade chip.

Their approach apparently is that (a) they want his talent on their roster in 2013, and (b) at a later date, they'll figure out what to do with him. My personal guess is that the plan is to see what they get from Profar the first half of the 2012 season, and then if Profar is tearing it up, they'll consider trading Andrus in the summer. and if Profar is struggling, they'll wait until the end of the 2013 season.

The same thing is happening with Stanton in Miami. The Marlins know that at some point he has to be traded, but they prefer to get another year or two from him in a Marlins' uni before they trade him. So they aren't even talking trade regarding him.

David, Richard Durrett is a boob. T.R. Sullivan? Although I like his style, he's the same guy who said unequivocally that Michael Young needs to be hitting out of the 2-hole in 2013. These are the people you're going to put your impenetrable faith into? I implore you to reconsider.

When they UNIVERSALLY tell us that the Rangers are not willing to discuss Andrus in a trade, there's a 99% chance or better that's exactly the case.

Statements like this make me think you just don't get it, and won't get it. This has been my point all along, that even if one person said the Rangers are looking to deal Elvis Andrus, their entire backdoor scheme would go up in smoke. If one person writes it, ten people will run with it, Jon Heyman, Buster Olney and Ken Rosenthal will report it over national TV broadcasts, and the cat will officially be out of the bag.

Ergo, Elvis Andrus's value dips.

Your plan to wait and see with Jurickson Profar as to when the Rangers should put Elvis on the market is equally clueless. The reason why it's smart business to trade Elvis now, as NC17 correctly mentioned, is that he's not coming back in two years. The two years of control is exceptionally more valuable than a year and two months, and lightyears more valuable than after the 2013 season where he will only be a year away from free agency. You don't strike me as a dumb guy. You should know this.

Eric, you're over the top in your "no one would know" statements. They can't trade him without other teams knowing or else, who would they trade with ....and therefore, the idea that the Rangers have somehow cloaked all their talks in some impenetrable veil of secrecy is one that's transparently silly.

We know that if they want to trade Andrus, they'll unquestionably be able to find a taker, so we're going to find out the truth when we see whether Andrus is here in March or not.

Will Andrus be here in March? I have no doubt, and I'll wager you over the issue. If he's traded, I'll take a month hiatus from posting here ...if he isn't and is with the team in spring training, you take a one-month break from posting here. Bet?

PS - As for whether he gets traded or not, emotionally I don't have a dog in that hunt either way. I like him as a Ranger, and I also recognize eventually he's likely to leave. But if he was going anywhere NOW, I have no doubt JD would be working to create a bidding frenzy rather than telling potential suitors and all who ask not to even bother.