What is your opinion of the A.J. Pierzynski signing?
MJH on accountability
From what i can tell the Dbacks want an MLB ready SS and 3b.
Looking at potential trade partners how about the Reds.
They get Buckel/Odor/Mendez
We get Cingrani/Gregorius
AZ Gets Andrus/Cingrani
We get Upton/Bauer/Skaggs
This allows us to still potentially flip Gregorius/Skaggs for Price and Olt/Bauer for d'Arnaud
Upton, Bauer and Skaggs? That's a middle of the order bat and two potential TORPS. To get that much while only having to give up Andrus, Buckel, Odor and Mendez just isn't realistic.
If we're trading exclusively with Arizona and looking to get either of Bauer or Skaggs, as well as Upton, we're going to have to give up Andrus, either of Olt or Martin Perez (possibly both), as well as some of our lower level, high-ceiling pitching. I'm also a strong supporter of trying to insert David Murphy in the deal so we could alleviate our outfield logjam.
I agree, my proposal is merely a starting point. However Cingrani is also a torp type. That would definetly get the negotiations started. It may actually be enough to get it done. My only concern with including Murphy is that we are already a righty heavy lineup. I would include Perez before Murphy may have to beboth to get it done.
Andrus isn't going anywhere. Any trade with him as a necessary part of the equation is DOA.
Why, because you read it on the internet. Look we need a motob az needs a ss, oh and the salaries match up pretty well, the writing is on the wall. Anything you read right now is just posturing. If JD himself told me right now that Elvis wasn't going anywhere I wouldn't believe him. This is just another Jedi mind trick. Though I will say that if we can get JUp without dealing Elvis that would be sweet even so Elvis will still be dealt because the "Price" is right.
The salaries match up pretty well? Upton is still owed $38m for 3 more years. Elvis is owed $11m for 2 more years.
Not that we should use WAR absolutely, but since we're estimating at a high, unimportant level, it should suffice. Elvis will likely put up about 4 fWAR in each of his 2 seasons. Upton has fluctuated significantly, so I would expect him to average no more than 5 fWAR per year for 3 years. So, 8 fWAR for $11m, or 15 fWAR for $38m? Even if you factor in a discount for the fact that we need a MOTOB more than a SS, that's still significantly in favor of Elvis.
In what way does that suggest the salaries match up well?
I'm not saying they won't make that trade, but unless the Rangers get more than Upton, this deal doesn't make sense.
Andy, I think you're not factoring in two things here: Justin Upton could easily average over 5.0 WAR through the next three years. I believe you're significantly underrating the surplus in value in what > 15.0 WAR gets you at a mere $38M. It's about $68M in total value; $30M in surplus value. I know I don't have to explain this to you. And that's with him only generating 5.0 WAR/year and WAR being at its basement $4.5M level. Because Justin Upton is still so young, I could see him putting up monster numbers the next three years before his big payday comes along.
Don't forget he was injured last year. I think a lot of perceptions as to his true talent level have been skewed because of that.
$13M AAV really isn't very much money for a power-hitter, and if you subtract the $10M we'll be saving by replacing Andrus with Profar, I think the deal really makes sense. I'd feel quite a bit differently if we were moving Elvis and replacing him with a stopgap shortstop, but Profar could easily throw up 4.0 WAR in 2013 with his bat alone.
Another way to look at it is Rangers could resign Hamilton @ 25 per year and roll with 25/6.5 ham/elvis and no pitching, catching or bullpen signings/upgrades for 2013.
Or we could trade Elvis for Upton cost 6m sign Greinke cost 23m and resign Napoli cost 13m and non tender Soto save 4.5m this option costs 38.5m and adds at a minimum 6.5 WAR using 6m/WAR we would have a 32M surplus.
@eric: I could also see Upton averaging over 5 fWAR/season. It's a distinct possibility. But it's also possible he'll average 3 fWAR. I chose a number I thought was reasonably safe. Still, you have a point.
Let's use my estimates:Upton: 5 fWAR/yr x 3 yrs x $4.5m = $67.5mElvis: 4 fWAR/yr x 2 yrs x $4.5m = $36m
Upton's surplus value would be about $30m, and his efficiency would be 1.78 per fWAR.Elvis's surplus value would be about $25m, and his efficiency would be 3.27 per fWAR.
If you want to look at straight value, Upton will likely provide slightly more surplus value, over 3 years, than Elvis over 2 years. But if you want to look at the efficiency of their teams' investments in them, Elvis provides better bang for the buck.
Basically I think it comes down to which way you want to look at it. Both ways seem to have merit. And yes, I know people pay more for power. That's why I think Elvis will be undervalued by comparison. And for the record, I am not opposed to such a trade, but I would prefer the Rangers get someone else along with him, even if it's not an A prospect. But I have a feeling the Snakes don't feel that way, and may in fact expect us to kick in someone else.
Also, not that this is a dealbreaker, but I'd much rather they figure out whether or not they get Greinke before committing to more $ by trading for Upton. That 5th spot in the rotation is, I think, easily the first piece to be addressed. After that, I'd want to see them figure out the catching situation, and then maybe worry about how much more offense Upton will bring to the outfield than Ian would.
Gtownfan, I'll take that bet. I think you're seeing mirages that don't exist when you envision some secret desire on the part of JD to trade Andrus. The Rangers - by ALL accounts - have no interest in trading Andrus, and I'm betting what we see is exactly what is there..
@ david, sorry didn't mean to upset you with the Elvis will be traded sentiment, bit this is the logical decision you can't continue to hoard middle infielders when your team NEEDS a MOTOB especially when one is available in a very thin market. This is what the baseball world calls a win win trade. I like Elvis as much as the next guy and the perfect trade scenario here would be for AZ to somehow lock Elvis into an 8 year extension so he doesnt become a Yankee in a couple years or the dbacks suddenly want Ian instead or better yet face.
@ Andy, maybe obtaining Upton first helps sign Greinke. Pitchers like to play for teams that can put up big numbers, also could help negotiations from a $ standpoint and gives us the leverage of not needing that 2nd torp that badly. Maybe some of this is a stretch but as a whole it should carry some weight.
Gtownfan, I have no emotional dog in this hunt. I'm just observing and commenting.
It's true. that the Rangers need something, and also true that they seem to be overly full of desirable middle infielders at the moment.
But none of that FORCES them to decide to move Andrus this off-season. Thinking that one forces the other is the flaw in your logic.
Coming into the off-season, it was possible they could do that. But it's also a fact that they were going to have a ton of roster turmoil with the important free agents and would try to find ways to minimize the chaos of change for now. From all accounts, it appears that they decided that trading Andrus was a task for some other time.
Wow we could go on and on, huh. Time will tell, mlbtr says AZ pursuing Hiroyuki Nakajima. We shall see.
I'm gonna be so pissed off if the Tigers get Upton for Jhonny F-ing Peralta and Nick Castellanos. It's about to happen (per MLBTR they're about to sign Drew) and we're all going to collectively lose our minds. Just ridiculous.
I won't lose my mind. If we don't acquire Upton it just means we have a bigger fish to fry.
You see what I did there?
I didn't see anything about Upton being traded for Peralta. But in any event, Upton is more like a "nice to have" at the moment. A good MOTOB is lower on my priority list than a TORP and a catcher. Also, other things being equal, I'd like a MOTOB that can play 1B.
There are a million better SS options than Jhonny Peralta. The Dbacks may want him but no way they give up Upton for that junk. The Tigers would be frightening though if they did get him.
I still think the best trade for Elvis may be to the Cardinals. They have a lot of ML talent and some nice prospects. Craig+Rosenthal or Lynn+Adams would be awesome.
@JondarAgreed about the Cardinals. But I would rather get Taveras. I would even think long and hard about trading Andrus straight up for him. He's gonna be that good and would slot perfectly into our lineup.
Tavares has been comp'd to Manny Ramirez. He's in an elite class of top prospects, with guys like Profar and Wil Meyers. It's going to take quite a bit to acquire any of those guys.
Being that Elvis Andrus has only two years left (worth between 8.0 and 10.0 WAR), Tavares will surely command more. If you basement-level his production out at 3.0 WAR/year over the next 6 years, that's 18.0 WAR right there, and that's being generously conservative; that number could easily be closer to 30.0. The Rangers would have to supplement that difference.
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