What is your opinion of the A.J. Pierzynski signing?
MJH on accountability
HA, I love this place! LOL@Sir Haywood~ Ima Black Sherrod/Jack London throwback.@Hench~"Fingers in Deep"...Miners from Alaska going to Seattle to enbibepaid by Gold Dust from a pouch. Bartenders were hired wth long fingers to "pinch" the dust for payment.Hence, the old addage "just a pinch" or "give me a pinch"of whiskey, please.Rather a simple way of taking more for greed/profits sake.Guggenhheim/Bankers/Wall Street, "Greed is Good".Somethings don't change.Will take a big pinch, to sign Greinke.DO IT and slam the door on LAA Staff, as well,but I'm thinnking TB will have the better option for US.
1) Does anyone kow what this guys numbers actually are? He's asking to be the highest paid righty of all time, and he's not even the best righty in the game. Not even top 5. He's not a #1. He's a #2, and if you're the Angels he's probably a #3. So is he worth that much, NO
2) He will obviously get that kind of money. Players are routinely way overpaid what their value actually is, i.e. Werth, ARod, Tex, Pujols, CJ, go way back to Kevin Brown, etc.
3) Yes, the Rangers will pay that kind of money, and actually go that many years. They have made a stand in the past against a contract this long, but Nolan has come out recently, and said he'd give Greinke a contract that long because he is young, has great mechanics and has shown to be extremely durable.
Would I pay Greinke this if I were the GM for the Rangers? NO, I understand it keeps away from the Angels, but I don't believe he's better than Yu, or necessairly that much better if at all than Harrison. He's still largely living off his one big season when he won the Cy Young, but he hasn't been anywhere near that good since then. His first season in Milwaukee he couldn't even win on the road. His home/road splits were the most ridiculous stat I've ever seen. That's not TORP type stuff. His ability might be, but his production isn't.
Andy, from your reply, maybe I didn't explain it well enough.
The $160 billion is not Guggenheim's at all. They do NOT "control that much value." They're just a brokerage-investment house, which typically will have discretionary control over relatively little of their so-called supervised assets. That AUM number will represent the total value of their clients' accounts, with money invested in various stocks, bonds, treasuries, CDs, mutual funds, insurance products, money markets, and who knows what else per client preference.
Of course "$160 billion" is a big number. It no doubt can generate lots of income to be the broker for that much in accounts. But whatever income is generated is going to be split among thousands of staff, with brokers, assistants, offices, and overhead all getting their share. And that $160 billion AUM doesn't tell us if the firm itself gives good advice, or is truly successful, nor can you tell, purely from the AUM number, whether a financial services company itself has any financial strength or not, as Bernie Madoff proved. See Bros., Lehman and Lynch, Merrill, two examples of companies with lots of AUM they crowed about, that went bye-bye almost overnight.
Also, in case you're wondering, the $160 billion level isn't one of the big boys in that industry: the real heavyweights these days in the financial services field will have TRILLIONS "under management."
Clearly any entity that writes a check for more than $2 billion has deep pockets, or is looking to make an impression on the public for some reason. Or both. But that $160 billion isn't theirs and doesn't tell us anything about how deep those pockets are. They could be playing a game of "billion dollar spit in the ocean" for all anyone knows.
Re Guggenheim. Yes, they asset managers and most of the money is not "theirs." I would not be surprised if they had a sub-entity formed for the purpose of putting outside money into the Dodgers, though this is speculation on my part. The ownership group includes a former Hollywood producer who made major dollars. And don't forget it is LA. Huge media market and lots of rich people to join the party if the existing group gets a little stretched. Add Wall Street and Hollywood and money means almost nothing.
Don't know if any of the Guggenheim descendants are part of this. Somehow I doubt it. Their daughter and rest of the family created a timeless art legacy permanently on display in NewYork. The daughter--can't recall her name--left a home/art museum in Venice well worth visiting if it is still there.
Lol when you've got a 25 year/$7 billion TV contract ($280 mill per) that changes the landscape. Period. And we're not even getting into funds available by the ownership group. The Dodgers are the new kings of the block. There is no disputing that.
Pitching fWAR since 2009:
1. Verlander - 28.62. Cliff Lee - 25.33. Roy Halladay - 24.54. Felix Hernandez - 24.25. Zach Greinke - 23.5
That's lefties and righties, and it's both the AL and the NL. Zach Greinke is definitely legit. Definitely worth the cash. Definitely a TORP. Definitely an ace. Definitely would look sexy at the top of the rotation with Yu Darvish.
Speaking of, he and Darvish each posted identical 5.1 fWAR totals in 2012.
@ Eric: First off I would love to have Greinke in the rotation, but not as the highest paid righty in history. I do think the Rangers would go that long on him though because Nolan Ryan really likes Greinke a lot, and has made it no secret which is very unusal for anyone from the Rangers front office when it comes to prospective free agents. In regards to the WAR argument that includes his Cy Young season which I think we can all agree isn't the pitcher you are going to get anymore. His average war since that season in which he had a 9.3 has been 4.7. Hardly elite. Definitely very good, but not 25 mil a year. For that much you can get the WAR you need through several players. The A's have the best model for this. They know how to maximize their dollar. Jon Daniels is also very good at player evaluation, and stretching the dollar, and doesn't allow himself to get bullied into paying too much or giving too many years just because someone else is willing to outbid him. He knows how to replace wins. If they can't get Greinke, they will get the WAR they want through another player or combination of players. Again, it obviously would be amazing to see the ground ball throwing Greinke at TBIA, but it has to make sense financially. Just because there are a lot of holes right now doesn't mean we have to start losing our minds and over paying. In JD we trust. He will make the right moves. Also getting to play Astros 17 times or however many it is this season helps a lot too, but still an extremely tough division. I wouldn't be surprised to see the Rangers, Angels and A's all make the playoffs this year. With the Rays possibly dumping pitchers and still offensively challenged, the Orioles I don't have faith in to repeat their success this year, the Yankees are aging, the Red Sox well nothing needs to be said there, the Blue Jays look to be possibly the only team in the East to make the playoffs. There's no one in the Central outside of the Tigers that will be able to win as many games as the top 3 in the West. JD will get it done. Trust the model
I dont think anyone here doubts the Front Office when it comes to being aggressive, yet fiscally prudent. To me, it seems Eric is merely stating facts. Greinke is a premier pitcher in this league. Is he likely to repeat his 9.0+ fWAR season? Most likely not. Is it feasible that he could net surplus value from the front end of his deal given the likely price range the Rangers will probably offer ($20-23 million AAV)? More than likely. Also, you havent taken into account that the price of WAR isn't static and that many valuations of the metric have actually increased. If so, then it's highly likely that Greinke nets a surplus in the front end of a backloaded deal at that price.
That being said, is it likely the Rangers sign him at that price? With the Dodgers in the bidding, HIGHLY unlikely but even if he signs near an AAV of $25 million, there is a good possibilty that he could net surplus value over the duration of his contract. Frankly, no one really cares if he sets a new bar as far as "richest contract for a pitcher", those titles are tenuous and irrelevant in the grand scheme of player evaluation/free agency - it's fodder for sensationalist headline material to the common sports fan to regurgitate at the water cooler.
@ansel: I think we're arguing the same thing. Like I said, I wasn't clear. I wasn't trying to suggest that they were worth $160 billion, because they probably aren't. "Controls" is not the same as "owns", that much is obvious. My point was simple: they have a ton of clout, and are likely to have tons of money to throw around (a lot, but an specified lot).
Colt, I don't believe you yourself understand the model. I also believe you and I are interpreting the data in different ways. Here are Greinke's WAR totals since the year before he won the Cy Young:
2008 - 4.92009 - 9.32010 - 5.12011 - 4.02012 - 5.1
This is one of the most consistently superb pitchers in baseball. He's the best option on the market the next two years. He's the one worth going all-in on.
If he wants to be the highest paid pitcher in the game like reports say i'll pass, but if he is willing to go for around 6/150 the Rangers need to make a hard push at that deal. As has been mentioned several times in this thread the dude is a pretty good bet to put up 5 WAR and as a 28 YO pitcher he is in his prime right now and should be able to put up around an average of 5 WAR for the length of a 6 year contract if not more. If the Rangers don't sign Grienke this year, assuming no farm clearing trades are made, the rotation will probably look similar heading into 2014. Whether thats good or bad you can't really tell at this point. Although if you can have Grienke and Darvish at the top heading into I can almost gurantee it will be good.
Grienke is basicaly the only TORP FA for the next two year, unless you count Lincecum who could have a comeback season and regain that title.
I'd wager he gets 7 years from someone since next year is basically a crapshoot for FA pitchers, or at least a vesting 7th year. He basically has the perfect market for himself. Honestly I wouldn't fault the Rangers if they offered a 7/165 deal. Even if you value WAR at 6 mil/per, he'd still have a better chance than not to offer surplus on that deal, especially factoring in inflation. Greinke's WAR would at a minimum be a wash at that price if he stays healthy. In 2-3 years pitching cost could be insane with Kershaw, Price and Felix hitting the market and more tv deals get signed. Going all-in now, even if the contract looks crazy and a slight overpay, could actually be a blessing in disguise. I would put a Darvish/Greinke duo vs. anyone.
Btw, Newberg posted an Andrus/Perez/L. Martin for Price hypothetical today. Yes please.
For all you guys who are hung up on Greinke being the highest paid pitcher in history, remember, that's not saying he's the best pitcher in history. It means the value of one dollar has depreciated. It's called inflation.
I'M FULL OF HSO's.
P1 you do make a good point the 2014-15 FA market for pitchers is going to be a fun one to keep up with. What if we sign grienke now, rid us of some bad contracts (Young) maybe sign a bat here or there a Laroche type or somthing like that nothing blockbuster. Then go after Kershaw in FA rollling out a rotation of Grienke/Darvish/Kershaw...WOAH. I'm looking too much into the crystal ball though I should stop.
@Fajita All things considered, I would love that this year and in 2014. The only way Kershaw signs with Texas is if he really wants to come home. Regardless of our payroll that year, he will be given every exception from our owners. He's gonna get paid no matter what and he'll more than likely get the most money from the Dodgers, but there's nothing like home sweet home. Likely? Nah. Possible? Definitely. Listening to his interview a few weeks ago on The Ticket made me think he does value home quite a bit. Will be interesting to say the least.
I mean if we're gonna dream, why not a Price, Darvish, Kershaw, Greinke star studded staff for 2014?
Heheheheheheh......Philly tried that a few years ago...how did that work out? "Best rotation ever"? I
There's no player in baseball I'd love the Rangers to sign than Kershaw, but I think the odds of him making it to FA are 1 and 50. The Dodgers are going to make him an offer he'd be insane to turn down. I don't know anyone who turns down 8 years 200 no matter how much they love the hometown (and he does love the hometown).
@P1: Kershaw can come home when he retires. Why would a young CY pitcher on track for 20mm or more a year, whose job gives him 4 mths off every year, foresake the celebrity and attendant benefits (meaning starlets arriving daily) want to waste his youth in Highland Park?
Not to undermine your point, primi, but Kershaw is married and does a lot of volunteering in the offseason; he probably doesn't have much time for whatever great stuff LA has to offer, so I don't think that part really matters too much. Obviously anyone would love to have him, but, yeah, the Dodgers will probably give him something really nice, and it probably won't hamper them very significantly financially. Unless he just really likes Texas, he's probably going to be a Dodger for life.
I have a very close source to Kershaw, an old man who just so happens to be his wife's father. He is my literal next door neighbor and we talk baseball a lot. I take what he says about Kershaw with a grain of salt as he is just as big of Rangers fan as we are. He tells me that, as already said a few times, he loves home. He may be in the big city of LA but deep down inside he is a Texas boy. I think the Rangers are arguably the only team that could pry him away from the Dodgers. It wouldn't be an easy thing to do, but I could legitimately see Kershaw coming to the Rangers if he reaches FA.
@PrimiRefer to Andy and Fajita. He's definitely not living the single Hollywood celebriry life. He just won the Roberto Clemente award for his volunteer work, of which most is based in Africa. I'm not saying we will sign him, but we really are the only team that has a chance at him outside of the Dodgers.
I'm going to trust the deep pockets of the Dodgers over Fajita's neighbor. Kershaw never sees free agency.
@Andy et al. Sorry. I knew nothing about his personal life. Being married, starting a family, all of that truly important stuff changes the complexion entirely. LA is not for raising children and fostering a marriage. I've always believed that once you achieve the level of financial remuneration Kershaw will command the extra couple million a year is marginal. I am sure of ways for the Rangers to express interest without tampering. Yu and Kershaw would make an incredible 1-2 playoff combo.
Stupid Dodgers...Y U NO POOR?!
Just for the sake of my unbridled optimism, Clayton Kershaw could be the key to us signing Zach Greinke. I know many of the left-wing sabermetric realists on this board disagree with me on this topic, and understandably, but bear with me.
If the Rangers really wanted to get into a bidding war with the Dodgers, it would be a futile fight. LA has an avalanche of cash they could drop on Greinke. Let's say, for argument purposes, the Rangers maxed out their 2013 budget absolutely. I'll arbitrarily add on $5M to the $130M budget as a special exception from ownership.
That would be $25M AAV over 6 years for Greinke, or 6/150, carrying the Rangers 2013 budget to $135M. If the Dodgers beat that bid, it would mean they'd have to pay more than that for Kershaw, who will be younger when he hits free agency in two years, and obviously with higher upside. Is it realistic to think the Dodgers would pay 6/150+ for Greinke and 6/165+ for Kershaw?
I'm sure they could, but it's worth considering. If this is really a two-horse race between us and the Dodgers, Clayton Kershaw could help us.
Just so we're clear, no, I don't think the Rangers would pay that much to ascertain Zach Greinke. But I'm also not of the opinion we're completely out of it.
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