What is your opinion of the A.J. Pierzynski signing?
MJH on accountability
Greinke's asking price is apparently 6 years and $150 million. I've come to the conclusion that obtaining a pitcher of Greinke's caliber or better is the only way the Rangers stand a chance of winning it all in 2013. While you may not agree with that notion, I'd be interested in hearing other opinions on what the likelihood of landing Greinke is. I've somewhat arbitrarily broken that bigger question into three smaller questions:
1) Do you think he's worth that kind of money?2) Do you think he'll get that kind of money? 3) Do you think the Rangers will pay that kind of money for Greinke?
I'll start with a brief answer for each question:1) If answering solely in terms of $/WAR then that's too much money. But if taking into the equation that he's a high impact player at a premium position, signing him keeps him out of an Angel's uniform, and also avoids making a trade for such a player and thus helps to keep the future bright then I think he is worth close to that kind of money.2) I think most GMs consider Grienke to be a TORP and I do think he will get very close to this type of money even if there are only a few interested teams.3) I think the Rangers will make a competitive bid, I'm just not sure they'll make the highest bid. I'm also worried that Greinke might choose the Angels even if the Rangers slightly outbid them.
All honest opinions are welcome as long as they are not disrespectful to another.
1) is he worth that kind of money? Is any baseball player worth 150 million??? he not curing cancer he throws fastballs.
2) yes he will get at least 150 million depending on how many bidders get involved it could go as high as 200 million.
3) if the money is the same he won't go to the Angels he will come here (no state tax) but the rangers will have to outbid everyone for his services and I think they will put in a VERY compettive bid.
I get the feeling from everything I've heard out of the Rangers FO that they are very interested in him. Nolan seems to like him and seems to think he deserves more years because he has a consistent motion and is still young. That seems to bode well for the Rangers offering a bid of around 5-6 years. In my opinion I think the Rangers will come very close to matching that asking price.
Well, thats 25 mil per season. I dont think hes a 25 mil per season pitcher. That level, to me, is saved for clear cut aces. No, I dont think he'll get 25 mil AAV (typically, the "asking price" is over what they think they'll get anyway, thats just negotiating 101). As far as from a rangers perspective, no they arent giving him 25 mil AAV. Personally, Greinke is a similar case to hamilton. They have some of the most elite tools in the game, but where they fall short is between the ears and that simply is not the type of player I'd invest in for a long term contract. As far as keeping him from the Angels...I'm always up for sticking it to the angels...but why would we be afraid to let them pick him up for 25 mil per season? CJ and pujols and wells are already sucking the life out of their payroll, adding one more high priced under achieving pitcher could only benefit us.
I think I would be comfortable going 5 for $110 mil... not sure if that gets it done? I think he has his shit together a lot more than Hamilton does. He may be a head case, but he doesn't seem to be even close to the level of headcase that Hamilton is.
Greinke is a headcase talk is weak imo. Anxiety isn't being a headcase. Its a treatable disorder. What has he done the last few years to suggest its even remotely an issue?
First of all Brian, false. As someone with anxiety, I can tell you, meds can help manage it, but it cant be treated. Its always there. And you only have to look at one thing to see the issue. Check out his home vs away splits. If hes in a hostile environment, hes average. And its not just a one year fluke. Theres a full ERA point difference each of the last 2 seasons and 4 of the 5 full seasons hes had in the bigs.
Agreed. Plenty of people that have mental issues can work around or through them or even achieve remission. That one incident was when he was much younger. I see no reason why we should be overly concerned with it. I don't consider this analogous to heavy substance abuse like Josh had. I wouldn't dock him any years or dollars based on that, and I don't think the Rangers would, either.
I agreed with Brian (hadn't seen nate's post before I completed mine). As I'm also someone with some anxiety history, I can tell you it's not always there for everyone - for some people it's a chronic problem, for others it's temporary or sporadic. Putting him into a box because he had one incident, even if it was pretty high-profile, isn't fair to him, IMHO.
@nateaggie, I also have anxiety so I'm not speaking randomly like most. By treatable i should have stated manageable (and not all are completely manageable even, but his clearly is). Regardless, too much is made of it with him. Home and away splits are typically favoring home for most pitchers and he's shown no anxiety related performance issues since his diagnosis. Hell, he won the Cy Young the year after. Everyone expects him to pull out a brown paper bag and start breathing into it the second he gets in a tough situation.
As I said Andy, the stats point it out and its been well chronicled over his career. He struggles on the road. Are you going to pay ace money for someone whos only an ace half the time? No. The threads about the price and 6 years/150 is too much for him, not necessarily JUST because of the anxiety, but on his overall body of work IMO.
#1 -- no he's not worth 6 @150. Even though he is a very good pitcher, there are still question marks regarding his personality...meaning people still are not sure if he can handle playing under pressure.
#2 -- no I don't think he will get 25 AAV...maybe he gets 20 AAV but I don't see him getting much more than that...unless it's from the Angles who are all in on him.
#3 -- No. If they wouldn't give Lee that kind of money (and yrs) I'm not sure they would do it for Grienke. Granted he's younger than Lee was at the time, but Lee led us to a WS...if that's not enough to convince a team to spend 150 mil nothing is. Lee was a proven left handed ACE which we all know is better for the Rangers because of the jet stream than a right hander.
If you take out Grienkie's Cy Young season, he's been good, but not ACE worthy. If you look at his WAR, he had a 10.1 (baseball-reference.com) in his cy young season...His next highest was 5.0. We need him, but not at 25 mil a year. We have too many other needs that need to be addressed. We need a big bat, a starting catcher, at least 2 bullpen guys...that's a lot of pieces to fill and to me it makes it more difficult to commit 25 mil a year to one dude.
David Price, Jared Weaver and Clayton Kershaw also have the same splits issue home vs away. Its not uncommon.
Their splits can be explained by the stadiums they play in. The two LA stadiums and tropicana are great for pitchers. Milwaukee is a big time hitters park, and kaufman's a good hitters park too.
@nate: I see no problem with you critiquing him based on his splits. My point was, I think at this point it's unfair to penalize him for the anxiety issue. If you don't think he's worth $150m, that's fine.
But I agree with Brian. Weaver, in particular, strikes me as a bona fide ace even though he has a notable split. He's close to unbeatable at home. On the road, he's probably a borderline #1/2. I'd take that any day and I'd pay him $20m a year, maybe $25 with the cost of elite FAs rising like it seems to be.
Greinke is a legitimate #1 also. It's harder to put a ton of stock in splits in years where he pitched 1/3 of his games with a different home. $150m/6 is a little more than I'd like to pay Greinke, but I could see the Rangers going that high. They did with Cliff, and he was 4 years older at the time.
For the record, Dr. Carleton of BP agrees with me that, given what has been made public about Greinke, there shouldn't be a ton of concern about him.
Greinke's anxiety disorder is being a little blown out of proportion. From all indications, Greinke's problem doesn't stem from pitching in big markets (he sure did fine in LA), his problem comes from communicating or expressing himself in front of others, particularly in large groups. Such anxiety often leads to depression. As you can see in the past, Greinke had bouts with depression and anxiety in KC, which sidelined him for a good while, and KC sure as hell isn't a big market. The size of the sports market doesn't have much of anything to do in this matter.
That said, Greinke is what I would consider to be a legitimate ace. Greinke's asking price definitely does not seem outside of the realm of possibility, his new contract may even exceed his asking price all together, especially after considering the desperate position that LAA will be in.
The Texas Rangers have a chance, but do they have the money is the question. I must say, at 6 years, $150 mill, I think that Greinke is worth it.
Greinke has posted the following WAR each season since 2008
08: 4.9 WAR09: 9.3 WAR10: 5.1 WAR11: 4.0 WAR12: 5.1 WAR
Meaning he's a pretty safe bet to post 5 WAR every season at minimum with the ability to post higher than that any given year when he could pitch like a CY Young contender. Otherwise we can pretty much expect 5.0 WAR minimum. At 4m/WAR that indicates that he's worth 20m/yr at least with a pretty damn good chance he'll out perform that at least a couple times. I would be very comfortable giving him 20-24m/yr knowing he should provide at least that much value.
Selected career stats:
1. Pitching at TBIA: 7 appearances, 2.83 ERA, .236 OBA, .267 OBP, .649 OPS, 1.04 WHIP2. GB/FB (2012): 1.693. Pitching at night: 3.69 ERA (FIP in the low 3's), .257 OBA, .308 OBP, .711 OPS 4. High-leverage situations: 2.19 ERA, .243 OBA, .299 OBP, .657 OPS, .02 HR/PA5. 7th-9th inning: 3.70 ERA, .246 OBA, .294 OBP, .671 OPS
1. pitches great at TBIA2. has become an extreme groundball pitcher3. pitches well at night4. is tremendous in the clutch (that HR's allowed in high-leverage situations (like when the game is close) is awesome)5. is pretty good in the later innings.
Think he'd be great here.
Actually nevermind the ERA in high-leverage situations. Can't calculate that.
Greinke is an above average starting pitcher but I just can't get past this stat: take out the 2009 season when he won the Cy Young with a 2.16 ERA, and he has a career ERA of 3.98 while pitching in a lot of pitcher's parks -- is that worth 6/$150? I don't think so.
Also, put yourselves (as hard as it may be) in the shoes of Angels fans for a second. Your team just showed a propensity last year to grossly overpay the top "names" on the free agent market. Now the top free agent this year is a guy that you traded 3 of your top prospects from your barren farm system to get midseason. He pitched well but you failed to make the playoffs and now if he leaves, you gutted your farm for NOTHING. Is there any price you wouldn't pay to avoid that front office debacle? Seriously, heads will roll if they do not resign Greinke. They will resign Greinke.
One vital issue to fit into our thinking on Greinke: there's good reason to believe the Angels are NOT going to offer him $20M a year or higher.
The reason is that Weaver is their ace, and he accepted a team-friendly 5/$82M to allow the team to spend on others. They gave CJ (a somewhat lesser pitcher) 5/$75M. Greinke isn't better than Weaver, so I'd wager they will ask him to slot into a salary somewhere between the two, maybe just a tick below Weaver. That would put the Angels' expected offer around 5/$80M.
Greinke had one off-the-charts-good half season, and otherwise has been a tier below the aces in the game. He's right handed. He's been traded twice, without a great yield exacted either time. Add all that together and $25M a year seems exorbitant and unlikely.
There is one factor pushing things in the other direction: the scarcity of top level pitchers on the market this winter. But teams do have budgets, it's hard to argue he is "worth" $25M in value, and that leaves reason to believe that 6/150 is going to be far more than anyone offers ...which could work to help the Rangers.
David, Greinke is better than Weaver, and it's not even close. GM's don't look at performance-based ERA as much as they do predictive stats like xFIP and SIERA. Well, I may be projecting a bit there, but so be it.
In 2012 Zach Greinke produced 5.1 fWAR, precisely the same as Yu Darvish and David Price. Jered Weaver produced much less, and his xFIP was in the territory of Matt Harrison. Weaver has consistently been able to produce better than his predictive xFIP stats, but that makes him a lot less sure of a bet than Zach Greinke.
Greinke is easily one of the top-5 to top-7 pitchers in all of baseball, and his contract should reflect that, particularly in an offseason where he's the only marquee starter. Supply and demand. Anaheim declined a $15.5M option on Danny Haren and a $12M+ option on Ervin Santana, because they know they need as much capital as possible to afford what should be between $20M and $23M AAV for Greinke.
Ugh....too many wannabe experts hanging around. Yes, anxiety is treatable. Anyone that says otherwise is a complete moron. That's right. COMPLETE moron. Lots of medical conditions are treatable. That doesn't mean they're curable. CURABLE!!! Big difference between words, dumbasses.
Just like you can treat a gunshot wound, but you can't heal it in any way other than it taking its own natural course. Just because you have some kind of anxiety doesn't make you an expert on anything other than your own experience. If you knew as much as you pretend you know, someone would pay you for your opinion.
That doesn't mean they're curable. CURABLE!!! Big difference between words, dumbasses.
Please show me where anyone claimed it was. I must have skipped over that. Three times. Nice windmill, bro. Thanks for contributing and helping us all keep the forum civil.
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