Reports are circulating that team is interested in Zack Greinke. But shouldn't the team be looking to improve its offense after the collapse this season? I would rather target bats than pitchers, either through trades or free agency (more likely trades). The bats are what let us down. A lineup of Kinsler, Andrus, Beltre, Cruz, Murphy, Young, Soto, Moreland, Martin/Gentry doesn't scare anyone. Lets get some bats!

A while back, I believe in connection with a discussion about J. Upton’s home/road splits, RFan referenced an article in Baseball America regarding park effects on right and left handed batters.

http://www.baseballamerica.com/today/majors/season-preview/2012/2613073.html

In attempt to find some interesting possible trade candidates that may be flying below my radar I attempted to translate how players in low offense parks may fare at RBPiA. I kept things simple. I compared the non-Ranger OPS with RBPiA by dividing the Ranger OPS by the non-Ranger OPS. Since only half of the games are in Arlington, I reduced the fraction of the above referenced amount over one (Ranger/non Ranger, less one) by dividing by two. This fraction, plus one, represented the OPS multiplier for the following tables, which only include players with 100 or more PAs. The tables are sorted by the absolute estimated increase in OPS, which benefits those players with high OPS or who play in low OPS ballparks.

I know this rough and fails to account for a lot of other variables. It is simply my attempt to unearth some players that may do much better in Arlington than in the San Diegos of baseball. Yes, there are more than a few zero probability names here, but rather than cull them based upon my particular opinions I thought it better to present the list without editing.

Finally, my apologies for the formatting, but it is what it is.

LHB with 100+ PAs sorted by absolute estimated increases in OPS

Adj
Pos Player Age G PA OBP SLG OPS OPS
UT John Jaso* 28 108 361 0.394 0.456 0.850 0.931
RF Will Venable* 29 148 470 0.335 0.429 0.765 0.840
1B Y Alonso* 25 155 619 0.348 0.393 0.741 0.814
3B Kyle Seager* 24 155 651 0.316 0.423 0.738 0.808
CF MSaunders* 25 139 553 0.306 0.432 0.738 0.808
RF Eric Thames* 25 40 130 0.256 0.439 0.695 0.761
OF Mark Kotsay* 36 82 156 0.314 0.357 0.671 0.737
1B Brandon Moss* 28 84 296 0.358 0.596 0.954 1.020
2B A Amarista* 23 105 300 0.282 0.385 0.668 0.734
UT Mike Carp* 26 59 189 0.312 0.341 0.654 0.716
RF Ichiro Suzuki* 38 95 423 0.288 0.353 0.642 0.703
2B Dustin Ackley* 24 153 668 0.294 0.328 0.622 0.681
C John Baker* 31 63 214 0.31 0.280 0.590 0.648
RF J Heyward* 22 158 651 0.335 0.479 0.814 0.869
RF Andre Ethier* 30 149 618 0.351 0.460 0.812 0.867
1B F Freeman* 22 147 620 0.34 0.456 0.796 0.849
RF Josh Reddick* 25 156 673 0.305 0.463 0.768 0.821
1B A Gonzalez* 30 36 157 0.344 0.441 0.785 0.838
UT Seth Smith* 29 125 441 0.333 0.420 0.754 0.806
1B Brandon Belt* 24 145 472 0.36 0.421 0.781 0.832
CF M Bourn* 29 155 703 0.348 0.391 0.739 0.789
SS Stephen Drew* 29 39 172 0.326 0.382 0.707 0.756
RF N Schierholtz* 28 77 196 0.321 0.417 0.739 0.787
UT Kila Ka'aihue* 28 39 139 0.295 0.398 0.693 0.741
3B Juan Francisco 25 93 205 0.278 0.432 0.710 0.758
LF Bobby Abreu* 38 92 230 0.361 0.344 0.704 0.751
3B A Kennedy 36 86 201 0.345 0.357 0.702 0.749
C Brian McCann 28 121 487 0.3 0.399 0.698 0.745
OF G Blanco* 28 141 453 0.333 0.344 0.676 0.720
SS M. Kawasaki* 31 61 115 0.257 0.202 0.459 0.503
1B James Loney* 28 114 359 0.302 0.344 0.646 0.689
1B Daric Barton* 26 46 136 0.338 0.292 0.630 0.673
SS BCrawford* 25 143 476 0.304 0.349 0.653 0.696
UT Eric Hinske* 34 91 147 0.272 0.311 0.583 0.622
CI M Carpenter* 26 114 340 0.365 0.463 0.828 0.867
OF Tony Gwynn* 29 103 277 0.276 0.293 0.570 0.608
SS Dee Gordon* 24 87 330 0.28 0.281 0.561 0.599
CF Jon Jay* 27 117 502 0.373 0.400 0.773 0.809
2B S Schumaker* 32 107 304 0.339 0.368 0.707 0.740
IF Eric Sogard* 26 37 108 0.206 0.275 0.480 0.513
2B D Descalso* 25 143 426 0.303 0.324 0.627 0.656

RHB with 100+ PAs sorted by absolute estimated increases in OPS

Adj.
Pos Age G PA OBP SLG OPS OPS
LF Carlos Quentin 29 86 340 0.374 0.504 0.877 0.975
OF Chris Denorfia 31 130 382 0.345 0.451 0.796 0.885
LF Jesus Guzman 28 120 321 0.319 0.418 0.737 0.819
2B L Forsythe 25 91 350 0.343 0.39 0.733 0.815
CF F Gutierrez 29 40 163 0.309 0.42 0.729 0.808
LF Casper Wells 27 93 316 0.302 0.396 0.698 0.774
C Buster Posey 25 148 610 0.408 0.549 0.957 1.032
DH Jesus Montero 22 135 553 0.298 0.386 0.685 0.759
CF C Maybin 25 147 561 0.306 0.349 0.656 0.729
CF Matt Kemp 27 106 449 0.367 0.538 0.906 0.978
DH Jonny Gomes 31 99 333 0.377 0.491 0.868 0.939
1B Chris Carter 25 67 260 0.35 0.514 0.864 0.934
LF Y Cespedes 26 129 540 0.356 0.505 0.861 0.931
3B Alex Liddi 23 38 126 0.278 0.353 0.631 0.699
C Miguel Olivo 33 87 323 0.239 0.381 0.62 0.687
2B M Scutaro 36 61 268 0.385 0.473 0.859 0.926
LF Martin Prado 28 156 690 0.359 0.438 0.796 0.861
C David Ross 35 62 196 0.321 0.449 0.77 0.833
C A.J. Ellis 31 133 505 0.373 0.414 0.786 0.849
SS H Ramirez 28 64 272 0.324 0.45 0.774 0.836
SS A.Simmons 22 49 182 0.335 0.416 0.751 0.812
SS B Ryan 30 141 470 0.277 0.278 0.555 0.615
3B Luis Cruz 28 78 296 0.322 0.431 0.753 0.813
2B Dan Uggla 32 154 630 0.348 0.384 0.732 0.792
IF Jerry Hairston 36 78 267 0.342 0.387 0.729 0.787
3B J Donaldson 26 75 294 0.289 0.398 0.687 0.743
2B Mark Ellis 35 110 464 0.333 0.364 0.697 0.753
3B Brandon Inge 35 74 311 0.286 0.389 0.675 0.730
IF Joaquin Arias 27 112 344 0.304 0.389 0.693 0.747
OF Collin Cowgill 26 38 116 0.336 0.317 0.654 0.707
UT Juan Rivera 33 109 339 0.286 0.375 0.661 0.714
RF Hunter Pence 29 59 248 0.287 0.384 0.671 0.723
C Nick Hundley 28 58 225 0.219 0.245 0.464 0.516
MI Adam Rosales 29 42 111 0.297 0.333 0.631 0.682
C Derek Norris 23 60 232 0.276 0.349 0.625 0.676
OF Reed Johnson 35 43 105 0.305 0.32 0.625 0.676
SS T Pastornicky 22 76 188 0.287 0.325 0.613 0.663
LF Matt Diaz 34 51 118 0.28 0.333 0.613 0.663
2B Ryan Theriot 32 104 384 0.316 0.321 0.637 0.687
1B Brett Pill 27 48 114 0.265 0.352 0.618 0.666
3B Evan Longoria 26 74 312 0.369 0.527 0.896 0.942
C Matt Treanor 36 36 122 0.281 0.282 0.563 0.608
C Kurt Suzuki 28 75 278 0.25 0.286 0.536 0.580
3B Juan Uribe 32 66 179 0.258 0.284 0.542 0.585
LF Matt Holliday 32 157 688 0.379 0.497 0.877 0.920
1B Allen Craig 27 119 514 0.354 0.522 0.876 0.919
C Yadier Molina 29 138 563 0.373 0.501 0.874 0.917
UT Jeff Keppinger 32 115 418 0.367 0.439 0.806 0.847
3B David Freese 29 144 567 0.372 0.467 0.839 0.880
SS Paul Janish 29 55 186 0.269 0.234 0.502 0.543
CF B.J. Upton 27 146 633 0.298 0.454 0.752 0.791
LF D Jennings 25 132 563 0.314 0.388 0.702 0.738
2B Ryan Roberts 31 60 209 0.284 0.364 0.647 0.680
C Chris Gimenez 29 42 109 0.315 0.33 0.645 0.678
C Jose Molina 37 102 274 0.286 0.355 0.64 0.673
CF S Robinson 27 102 181 0.309 0.355 0.665 0.698
IF S Rodriguez 27 112 342 0.281 0.326 0.607 0.638
C Tony Cruz 25 51 131 0.267 0.365 0.632 0.663
2B Tyler Greene 28 77 197 0.272 0.358 0.629 0.660

The offense did fade the stretch of the season, but in T.R. Sullivans mailbag he noted that Perez lost his last 3 starts of the season and Feldman lost 7 of his last 8, so based on that alone I feel like the Front Office is right in going after pitching, but I share your concern with the lineup next year with the expected loss of Hamilton and even Napoli's pop. Magadan wants to come in and teach situational hitting, and looking at the possible lineups for next year, it doesn't look like the Rangers will be the mashing team of old, but one that looks at hitting a ground ball to the right side of the infield to score runs 1 at a time, instead of waiting for that 3 run homer that avoided the lineup the last half of the last month.

I don't think we have to lead the planet in homers and runs scored to be an elite team. If we fill our holes with smart OBP type guys then I think we'll be just fine.

WINS, not offense. WAR not OPS. Look at defense as one of the elements.

The more I watched the Giants, the more I was convinced that pitching is the absolute most important thing in a postseason. If your team can't pitch, it doesn't matter how much offense you can muster most days because another team's good pitching will shut you down eventually. Filling out the 5th spot in our starting rotation, hopefully with a #1 or 2 pitcher, is the absolute most important thing the Rangers need to do. Any move that's made before that rotation is filled out cannot take away from the resources, be they money or players, that will be used to acquire the last starter. Being in a hitter's park, it should be easier to find hitters suitable for our park than pitchers.

Andy: Right on the money and well put. We have a decent rotation to get us through 162 but the playoffs are another matter entirely.

Rangers offseason path to 2013 World Series:
Sign Adam Laroche to 3 year 36 million deal
Sign Melky Cabrera to 1 year 8 million deal
Trade Elvis Andrus, Martin Perez, Mitch Moreland, Justin Grimm to Tampa Bay for David Price
Sign Zack Greinke to 5 year 130 million deal with 20 million dollar vesting option for 6th year
Trade Derek Holland, Mike Olt, and a low-level prospect for Travis d'Arnaud and Casey Janssen.
Resign Koji Uehara to a 3 year 14 million dollar deal.

Rotation: Price, Darvish, Greinke, Harrison, Ogando
Bullpen: Nathan, Uehara, Ross, Janssen, Scheppers, Kirkman, Font .....notably weak, but will be bolstered by midseason returns from Feliz and Lewis.
Catcher: d'Arnaud/Soto, 1B: Laroche, 2B: Kinsler, SS: Profar, 3B: Beltre, Center: Martin/Gentry, COF: Cabrera, Cruz, and Murphy, DH: Young.

Gives you top Rotation in the majors, gold glove at each corner infield spot with well above average offensive production and a left handed bat in Laroche, spot for the top prospect in baseball in profar, top catching prospect in baseball with a proven veteran to ease the transition, retains a second-baseman who admittedly had a down year last year, but prior was considered behind only Cano and Pedroia as far as top 2Bs in the game, gives you a youth battle for CF with Martin and Gentry and experienced veteran bats with average or slightly above average defense in Cabrera, Cruz, and Murphy. You hope for a bounce back year from MY and if it's not realized than you make one of your corner outfielders full-time DH. All that's left to be decided on the 25 man roster is the utility infielder as MY should be relegated to the corner spots when used.

That being said this slots Texas at a fairly high payroll but one that is flush with talent and not devoid of farm talent or inordinately expensive especially when the new TV deal is taken into account.

If Jon Daniels can pull all that off, he is the GM of the Century.

Joseph, your plan probably put the Rangers payroll around 160-170M, which means it's not workable even if all the other teams cooperated.

David, the payroll would likely fall between 145 and 155 million, which while one of the 6 or 7 largest in the league, would still be manageable for the dfw market. It also would result in a one year spike as Cruz, Cabrera, and Young would represent nearly 40 million dollars off the payroll the following year. All signings with the exception of the Greinke deal are well within the realm of reality, and both suggested trades amount to zero increases in payroll and provide for the needs of the other teams (Toronto: help on the left side of the infield and starting pitching/ Tampa: all star ss that allows them to shift Zobrist to position where he has plus defense, cheap controllable pitching at the upper levels which they currently lack in Perez and Grimm, and cheap control of a first baseman who's power won't be impeded by Tropicana field.
So yes cooperation in trades is inevitably an uncontrollable variable, but it is mitigated by fair value trades that assess the needs of a particular organization.

Joseph: Is Cruz really average defensively? I don't think he's terrible but I've never though "half the OF in the league are worse than Cruz defensively".

Joseph, I think your math is significantly wrong. Your trades are both far from dollar neutral (they both raise the Rangers payroll sizably) and while you may wish that what you are showing would fit with a payroll under 150M, I think a player-by-player spreadsheet with those 25 would definitely land at 165-ish give or take, and that's not gonna fly.

Of course, I don't think 150 will fly either. Texas spent about 125 in 2012, and I doubt they will be willing to spend past about 130-135 in 2013. Even though regular season attendance was up by 500,000, their playoff attendance (where ticket prices are immensely higher) was probably 350,000 lower this season. When the owners opened the wallets to 125M, no way they were planning around a one-and-done playoff revenue scenario.

@David__D: some people say you need 3 years worth of data to accurately judge a player's defensive abilities. Over the last 3 years, Cruz had UZR of 10, -6.1, and -3.3. His DRS were 3, -5, and -13. The last 2 years, even though that's only 2/3 of the desired period, suggest a substantial decline in his defense. I would be a bit surprised if he came anywhere near 10 UZR again.

On the other hand, Murphy is trending upwards, though this conclusion also is mitigated somewhat by the smaller sample size. Since 2010 his UZR were -3, 0.5, and 7.7, and his DRS were 0, 4, and 6. I don't expect his defense to get much better, but I think it's quite likely he's a better bet to play COF this year if he and Cruz should find themselves competing for one spot.

Who's going to be our catcher next year?