From Bob Nightengale, CBS:

http://www.usatoday.com/story/sports/mlb/2012/11/07/justin-upton-trade-talks-texas-rangers-gm-meeting/1691009/

"The Texas Rangers have expressed strong interest, according to an executive directly involved with the talks, but they have resisted the Diamondbacks' request for shortstops Elvis Andrus or Jurickson Profar. The executive spoke to USA TODAY Sports on condition of anonymity because talks are ongoing."

So can we infer the Rangers are offering Olt and pitching instead of Andrus? Also I don't know why he mentioned Profar, that's ludicrous to even discuss Profar for Upton.

errrrrr.... he works for USA Today not CBS. Whatever.

Nightengale is pretty solid. Usually doesn't come out with any bullshit.

This is just step one. Rangers saying they don't want to part with Andrus (to not make it look like they are desperate to move him) and the Diamondbacks posturing by saying they are "unlikely" to deal Upton. Of course. Of course! This is how it works, people. This is how it works through the media. Justin Upton will be traded. Everyone knows this.

And yes, the Rangers have to be the favorites. This is what some of us have been talking about forever now.

I only hope that the Rangers can get a little more in return than just Upton. If Arizona is this antsy to get rid of him they should comply.

Any leaks throughthe Press, would be a 1st, with OUR TRs.
Look for a mumble & side step from Nolan, for the gage, etc.
Nolan won't say, but his body language gives good hints.

Nolan isn't the GM.

From Nightengale's tweets, it sounds like an Elvis for Upton straight up deal could get it done. Interesting.
“@BNightengale: The #dbacks have had Upton on market for 2 years and if they can get Andrus or Profar from #Rangers he's gone.”

@P1: Sounds like we have we have the leverage if they're that desperate to get rid of Upton. Maybe we could get him for Odor/Perez?

The Rangers can't be desperate to move Elvis. You don't get desperate to move a guy like Elvis unless he's a cancer or you know something else about him. Just because they might be willing to move him doesn't mean they're desperate to.

The best guess is that they want a SS or 3b, their two weak spots right now and they are playing for now. One of the interesting things to think about is that they have apparently soured on Bauer also. Would you do something like Upton and Bauer for Andrus and Grimm?

I have a trade proposal for that... The idea of trading Elvis or Profar is silly..
"call up Arizona, I have a trade proposal... We will trade you Leury Garcia (who is not ready but has that type of potential) and we will also kick in Holland because we know that Garcia is not what you are looking for.

--Then we go out and sign Greinke, and Adam LaRoche.

--Look into trading Kinsler and Moreland for Relif help.

I highly doubt the low ball trade offers get it done. That takes away our leverage bc every team can offer that. What makes our leverage is that we have an abundance in 3B and SS....exactly what Arizona needs, and our talent trumps pretty much everything out there. Especially since the Red Sox took Middlebrooks out of the talks. I don't know if we could swing an Upton for Olt package, but I would still be on board with an Upton for Elvis straight up trade. My dream: Elvis/Olt for Upton/Bauer.

Profar for Upton is a ridiculous proposition. Andrus for Upton is only slightly less a ridiculous proposition only because Elvis has 2 years left on his contract.

Let's just look at the stats for the last 4 years comparing Elvis and Upton since Elvis has only been in the league for 4 years (stats below are averages from last 4 seasons for each player).

Upton: .286 BA 134 SO 19 SB 60 BB 78 RBI 23 HR 30 Doubles .362 OBP .845 OPS 3.25 WAR
Elvis: .274 BA 86 SO 31 SB 54 BB 49 RBI 4 HR 23 Doubles .342 OBP .695 OPS 3.00 WAR

The first question you ask yourself is , "Is Upton's greater production and power numbers good enough to warrant trading Elvis Andrus for him?"

I answer that question , "No" based on the stats alone.

Now let's think further. Justin Upton has had his ups and downs throughout his first few years in the league. He has great potential but has really only had one season where he really tapped into it. Elvis, on the other hand, has shown improvement in almost all facets of the game every year he has been in the show.

Elvis has improved defensively at a premium position. Upton is basically another version of Nelly Cruz in RF.

Upton is coming off of a down year. Elvis is coming off of a very good year, improving upon the year before in many ways.

My point is Upton's selling price should be much lower than it seems like it is right now. Elvis is being mentioned only because of (1) Profar's imminent injection into the lineup next year and (2) Elvis' contract situation + Scott Boras. If the Rangers really want Upton, they can get him without giving up Elvis. I mean this type of trade is designated for 2 guys who need a change of scenery. Upton might. Elvis most definitely does not.

If you do trade Elvis for Upton, I would hope that the return would be much much more than just Upton.

And a final thought: of course the Rangers are favorites. The Rangers are favorites (or at least one of the frontrunners) for seemingly every big time move in Major League Baseball since JD took over. The club explores all avenues. The fact that the Rangers are favorites just means that they have a package that could get Upton, and that they've shown some interest.

Upton has been on the market for two years-I watch their games during the season. Upton strikes out a lot and walks little, has barely passable power and screws up playing defense. We have better in the long run here at home already.

@P1 Stefen

That's just too much to give up. All-Star RF with attitude problems for All-Star SS who is nothing but a positive clubhouse influence and a top prospect with attitude problems who has been made expendable because of those attitude problems for a top prospect with a reputation as a hard worker who can play multiple positions??? Why would we even think about that?

That is why I would not trade Elvis or Profar for Upton.

Holland + L. Garcia = Upton

Upton was viewed as someone who could change the MLB game. He has not lived up to hardly any of his hype, but a change of scenery + our new hitting coach (that has seemed to be pretty good in Boston) = Maybe a very good baseball player. I'd give up Holland for that, but we would have to sign Greinke.

Great posts, Notorius!

We are not trading Elvis Andrus for Justin Upton. It's for all the reasons you mentioned. I'm still trying to understand why we would decimate our defense and derail our somewhat average pitching staff this way, as well. I'm sure JD, Nolan and Wash are thinking similarly. Again, nice posts.

Peace

@ Notorious wrote: --

"Upton: .286 BA 134 SO 19 SB 60 BB 78 RBI 23 HR 30 Doubles .362 OBP .845 OPS 3.25 WAR
....Elvis: .274 BA 86 SO 31 SB 54 BB 49 RBI 4 HR 23 Doubles .342 OBP .695 OPS 3.00 WAR

The first question you ask yourself is , "Is Upton's greater production and power numbers good enough to warrant trading Elvis Andrus for him?"

I answer that question , "No" based on the stats alone."--

Huh? "Based on the stats alone," Upton has averaged a WAR of 3.25 over the last 4 while Elvis has averaged 3.00. Based on the stats alone, Upton has been a better player.

But the more important aspect of a potential deal remains team strengths/weaknesses. Texas has a stud ready to step in at SS (Profar). Elvis is a luxury. Conversely, Texas needs COF help. Cruz and Murphy will be gone after this season.

So trading a SS worth ~ 4 WAR for a COF worth ~ 4 WAR makes a ton of sense from the Rangers perspective. Moving Kinsler to LF is not comparable to acquiring Upton b/c Kinsler is not going to produce 4 WAR in the OF.

@utb

Yes Justin Upton's stats and WAR say that he is the better player statistically. But is that really enough to warrant the trade? Is that all we really see in Justin Upton? We're just overlooking all of the character issues. Why do you think the D'Backs want to get rid of this guy??

I think part of the issue here is we are losing Josh and everybody wants a "true 3 hole hitter" to replace him. Upton seems to fit that bill to some extent since he has batted 3rd during the better part of his career for the D'Backs.

I just hope the Rangers resist that temptation. We can plug in a guy to hit 3rd. Heck, I might toss in Profar just to see what he can do. But that issue needs to considered a non-issue in my opinion.

I can see an Elvis for Upton/Bauer deal going through. But that is the only thing I see going through. Bauer is a good pitching prospect who is ready for the Bigs. Upton can be a good hitter with more protection around him. Yes his attitude sucks sometimes, but maybe a fresh clubhouse that actually cares about winning will be good for him.

I imagine tha tright now JD is offering something like Olt,Kinsler, and Perez/Grimm for the Upton Bauer thing and personally I hope AZ takes it.

Notorious,

"We can plug in a guy to hit 3rd"

I'd have to disagree with you here. I think its the hardest spot in the lineup to hit. Usually the best overall hitter on the team hits here (combination BA and power and OBP).

Murphy and Beltre both struggled here.

Fangraphs' take on the potential trade

I pretty much agree. If we make this trade it most likely involves Arizona throwing in extra.

Again, though, I ask: why would Towers want to make that trade? I suppose with all the capable outfielders they can probably afford to part with Upton, particularly if they want to free up some salary. But why Bauer? As highly regarded as he is, I would expect them to want a lot for him, and to not be actively shopping him. Something smells fishy.

@Andy
Finally, a subjective mainstream article (Especially from Fangraphs) that agrees Elvis is worth more than Upton. I know I and countless others have been saying it nonstop, Elvis should only be available for stud pitchers. Although I wouldn't fault the Rangers for a straight up deal.

@Notorious
The reason I like the Andrus/Olt for Upton/Bauer trade is bc pitching is worth more than hitting. Bauer could be Lincecum 2.0. Even if you didn't want him, he's worth more than Olt on the trade market. Why? Bc everyone could use a top 5 pitching prospect in all of baseball. Regardless of attitude. I mainly want Bauer for trading purposes only anyways. I could see him flipped to say Toronto for D'Arnaud. But even if we kept him, I'd like to think the Maddox brothers pedigree would shape him into...Lincecum 2.0.

Those guys usually don't hit the market.

Both sides are simply posturing, as we all know. In the end, if this is to get done, expect a two-for-two or two-for-three swap, obviously built around Andrus and Upton. Because as it stands, an Andrus for Upton straight-up swap would obviously favor the D'Backs. And I would be extremely disappointed if Andrus' value isn't taken full advantage of in a trade. JD knows how big of a chip he has in Elvis Andrus. And it's not irrational to say that the Rangers have the advantage in these trade negotiations. This is going to be interesting.

@P1 Stefen

Touche. I like the way you think. Your point just inched me a little closer on considering that trade.