What is your opinion of the A.J. Pierzynski signing?
MJH on accountability
I haven't been on this site much so I apologize if this has already been discussed, but thinking pie in the sky, what if we could sign Greinke and then also trade for Price (Andrus, Holland, Perez? Not sure what people think it would take), but I think the general thought is it would be great to get one or the other, but why not both?
My dream rotation that is at least remotely possible is:
Price, Greinke, Darvish, Harrison, Ogando
Who wouldn't love that? Before the season, it would probably look like the Phillies 2011 and Angels 2012 rotations. Of course, of those 2, the Phillies 2011 was about as promised and the other, well...could have been better, so there's that.
Realistically though, Derek's signed through 2016 to the tune of about $27m more, and has 2 option years beyond that. That's more money than most of the Rays' pitchers make. I wouldn't count on them liking that trade.
What do you think it would take to get Price? Would Elvis, Olt, and Perez get it done? Too much?
It would be an amazing idea for 2013. But would suck for pretty much every year after that. Grienke will command at least $20M AAV and Price is going to get healthy raises each of the next 2 years. Yu isn't really cheap - especially if you're amortizing his posting fee across his 6 year contract. Harrison is in line for a raise and will be leaving as a FA if we don't lock him up soon. Feldman's role needs to be filled.You can also count on JD signing a couple vets as an insurance policy. So your rotation has suddenly got very expensive.
If we go with the assumption that payroll will be around $130M next year, Grienke, Price, Holland, Harrison and Yu would make up for at least $55M of that. Add Beltre, Young, Cruz, Nathan & Kinsler and you have another $63M (conservative #'s).
I just don't see the math working in our favor to bring in both of those guys and still fill our a 40 man roster. Not to mention many cheaper options on that 40-man would now be playing for the Rays if we were to make a move for Price.
In short, I hate the idea and hope Grienke ends up somewhere in the Central.
Seems like overkill to me. A rotation where Darvish/Price/Greinke is a #1, one of the other two a #2, Harrison #3,Holland #4 and the battle royale between Ogando, Perez and Feliz at #5 would be as good as any rotation in the Majors. Payroll $s are a scarce resource and therefore needs to be allocated optimally.
Yeah I started a thread about this a few weeks ago and it was pretty split between that rotation and people wanting to get a bat (mainly Upton) to replace Hamilton. I'm on the Price/Greinke train though. I proposed an Elvis, Perez, L. Martin, Buckel trade for Price. I would do it in a heartbeat. Who needs to score 800 runs when you have Darvish, Price, Greinke, Harrison, and Ogando fronting your pitching staff.
@AndyI think the major difference this rotation would have compared to the other 2 is age. All 5 guys would be entering their primes and/or just entered it and have way less innings thrown. It is definitely a pie in the sky dream though. I get giddy just thinking about it. Yeah....giddy.
Is that $130M taking into consideration the TV contract that kicks in 2014? Some sources say that the Rangers are going to get 150 million a year from that. Thats assuming that the 3 billion dollar number is correct.
@KeystoneDidn't someone post on here that every MLB team is getting somewhere around $40-50 mil per year from the national TV deal, on top of local tv deals? I forget who did it, but it was a pretty thorough post about the details.
I just don't see how a top 5 market with a huge tv contract wouldn't be able to afford a higher payroll if certain players were available. I understand there is a budget, but there are also exceptions. Price, Greinke, Upton, etc. are exceptions.
No doubt our salary structure would be heavily leaning in favor of pitching, but haven't the Giants proven that that's how you win World Series? Also, you mentioned it's good for this year, but then bad going forward, but then you say to consider a bunch of other guys salaries that won't be here the year after (i.e. Young, Nathan, etc.). In short, the A's, Giants, etc. have proven that if you have great pitching and timely hitting you can win in the playoffs. The rotation I laid out with the following lineup could be World Series caliber: unnamed league average catcher, Moreland/Olt, Kinsler, Beltre, Profar, Murphy, Gentry/Martin, Cruz, Young. Nathan at back of bullpen, Ross, Scheppers, Kirkman, etc. in the pen, and hopefully have Feliz and Colby back by the break to help as well.
Amigo, I think either of your Andrus/Holland/Perez or Andrus/Olt/Perez packages would certainly make TB think quite a bit, so much that even Jon Daniels might not offer that much to acquire a TORP. But it's pretty realistic, nonetheless.
I would adore a rotation featuring Darvish/Greinke/Price; you're talking about three 5+ fWAR pitchers. That's a better rotation than Philadelphia's troika, and for far less money.
Again, the only problem I have is that, even with this amazing front 3, our offense still isn't addressed. Maybe those three pitchers would make it OK to roll with a small-ball lineup, but I'm still not comfortable with all the question marks, whether it's Ian Kinsler, Nelson Cruz, Michael Young, whoever's catching, whether David Murphy can duplicate his 2012 success (I don't think he will), and so forth.
I think we've been used to seeing one of the best offenses in baseball and most think we have to continue to be that way to win, but I'm saying despite those questions you mention our offense would be just fine without adding any big bats. I think our offense without adding any big bats is better than the Giants offense was this year. Posey = Beltre and then I think our pieces after that are comparable and overall I think we're deeper. Maybe it comes down to whether you think Kinsler and Cruz had a down year or whether that is their new norm. There are ways to win big that don't involve having th best offense in baseball. The Cardinals had a pretty decent year I'd say this year even though they lost one of the best hitters in baseball and didn't add any significant bats.
Didn't someone post on here that every MLB team is getting somewhere around $40-50 mil per year from the national TV deal, on top of local tv deals? I forget who did it, but it was a pretty thorough post about the details.
That was me. You can read the full post here.
Anyways, what it boils down to is starting with the 2014 season, each MLB team will get about $51-$52 million annually from the national TV deals. This is an increase of $25-26 million annually vs what they are receiving now.
Also, the Rangers with their local TV deal, will get a minimum of about $75 million a year beginning in the 2015 season. (assuming $1.6 billion deal over 20 years, with a $100 million down payment received already). This is also an increase of about $50 million a year, as the Rangers current TV deal is worth about $25-30 million/year (estimate).
What it boils down to, is worst case, the Rangers get $75 million more annually in 2015 from TV deals than they do now. ($125 million vs $50 now).
Thanks BZ. Great info. That's the reason I come here.
I'd also like to point out the FA market next year is marginal at best. Ellsbury may be the only significant position player available. If the Rangers are going to spend money, this is the offseason to do it. Signing Greinke and extending Price next year wouldn't really hurt the pocketbook with the influx of money. If we focus on winning the division first, I don't see any of the teams in the AL West being able to handle that type of pitching staff. The Angels would possibly have a chance, but would anyone fear the Astros or A's vs. that staff? No way. Focus on the division and the playoffs will work itself out with the best rotation in baseball.
The Giants have played in 9 WS games in the last 3 years. They have won 8 of them. I'm convinced if we're ever going to win it, especially since it will require half the games played at the launching pad, it's going to be an offense of mostly situational hitting behind good pitching and defense. Those look to give you the best odds.
If we pick up an ace, I'll be very happy. If we pick up 2 (or at least another #2) I'll be ecstatic. We should have the defense, and we should be able to muster the hitting. If we signed Greinke and traded for, oh, say, one of the Rays' pitchers (Price, Shields, Hellickson, pick one), I wouldn't care if they didn't replace Josh's production in the lineup. Or Nap's. If guys like Martin and Profar and Olt can do much at all, I'm confident we'd have a shot behind that triumvirate.
That won't happen, though. So if we should acquire a #1 or 2, alongside Darvish, Harrison, Holland, and Ogando, then, yeah, I'd still feel pretty good. And I wouldn't lose a lot of sleep over whether or not Martin and the other new guys will replace Josh's and Nap's bats.
"Pitching Wins Championships" (PWC)
Texas has always been Hitter Friendly / Pitching PoorAfter two WS appearances Ranger Fans should Know the credo
All signs from Ranger Brass is "We Got It. (PWC)" -> "Won't mortgage the franchise for Today"
Look to add Greinke OR a deal with TB: not both.
If you look at the FA market we may be a bit thin for Ace Starters but we OWN the market for 3rd Base & Short.
This could/should be a winter of great content for JD Nolan to work some over the hump magic.
To be perfectly honest, my ideal scenario is signing Grienke at something like 5 yr/ $100 million with a vesting option that makes it something like 6 years / $125 million.
Then, I'd say extend Elvis along the lines of 8 years / $120 million. That extension would kick in right when the local TV kicks in in two years.
With a Yu/Grienke top two in the rotation, we can hold our own against most rotations. Also this gives Ogando/Holland/Harrison/Perez a chance to develop further. I'm pretty sure at least 2 or 3 of those are consistent #3 SPs at worst with more upside than the almost everyone else's rotation.
I'll be shocked if the Rangers offer the kind of money required to land Greinke. He's going to command more than 20 million AAV. But what I worry about most is that Greinke, being as unpredictable as he is, just might intentionally toy with the Rangers while planning to sign with the Angels all along but lead the Rangers on so that all the other FA are gone.
Use the money saved on Josh (now and in the future) for Grienke.....of course it will be more than we currently pay Hamilton but what he wants (7 yrs for $175M) is more than I believe we would have to pay Grienke. Probably get him for around $20M-$22M per yr vs $25M. Forget trading for David Price.....Tampa is going to what a ton of return.........and Andrus is the real heart and soul of this club. If anyone has ever watched who has enthusiasm on the field and in the club house it is Andrus. Most of the other key players look like zombies....particularly Young and Kinsler. Elvis is the one that goes in and talks to and tries to engerize the pitchers who are on the mound. Beltre is another team rouser who generates enthusiasm........unlike Young and Kinsler. Elvis Andrus goes so goes the infield and the club and that is nothing against Profar (he needs to replace Kins at 2B) as he is another Andrus/Beltre type of player.
I agree Craig and thinking about Beltre 3rd Elvis SS Profar 2B and Mitch 1B defense makes me pretty happy in the pants. Also to the others speculating about Greinke's price, I'd seriously guess he wont get anything less than 6 years 150mill. Do I think he's worth it? Hell yes! 29 year old former Cy Youngs don't hit free agency very often, and we're gonna have to over pay some for him but I think it's totally worth it. Yes he's a head case and yes there are some intangibles, but overall he is going to be worth the investment.
I think this is an awesome idea, and trading Olt, Perez, and Andrus for Price is the way to go if that gets it done. Sign Greinke, I'm usually against overpaying for players, but I think this situation is different. If you can get Price for that package, you go hard after Greinke, you have Darvish, Price, Greinke, Harrison, and Holland who is a good no. 5 with a chance to be a no. 3 pitcher in your 5 spot, not to mention I think Harry is better than a 4.
That may max out payroll, but I think that pitching staff is good enough to make it worth it, and I think in 2014 and on once the TV money comes in that we could increase payroll again and add a little offense. If Harry leaves after 2014, Holland steps in bc we have him locked down until 2018 if we want and he is a good no. 4 pitcher. By then hopefully someone like Cody Buckle or another pitching prospect is ready for the 5 spot, but even if every one of our pitching prospects washes out, you can sign a meh no.5 and still have one of the best staffs if not the best staff in the MLB for at least 3 years, maybe more if you can extend Price.
I don't know about you guys, but a staff of Darvish, Greinke, Price, Harry, Holland is my baseball dream. Unfortunately that probably will never be anything more than a dream, but if JD could pull it off, I would be ecstatic, pretty much regardless of the line up. I think that team is a WS favorite the next 3 years or beyond if they can extend price. A young, dominant rotation is the best thing a baseball team can have. Hell, let's take it one step further and sign Kershaw when he becomes a free agent in a couple years! Just kidding, the Dodgers will resign him, but you may as a well dream big while we are rosterbating.
Profar takes Andrus spot, Kins stays at second, thats where he is most valuable, and I doubt we get anything good in a trade for him. And he's not some lazy player with no fire like everyone for some reason thinks, if you watch the guy scream and get in umpires faces, and tell the Angels to "get the F*** off their field" you know he cares about the game, and maybe has a temper problem, but I like it, sometimes he goes a little far though.
Let Martin have his shot in Center and see what he can do, platoon him with KittenFace if he struggles. We would be taking a big step down offensively, but I think the pitching will make up for it. Also, by not having MY be the DH the entire year and get 600 PAs you can probably offset some of the lost offense bytjust having him platoon with a league average player. He can still hit lefties, so if they aren't gonna get rid of him, they need to utilize him in a way that will not provide negative 2.4 WAR next year, and that will help the offense some. It would be cool if they could resign Napoli too, so catcher isn't a black hole the whole year, but if that rotation means by by Naps, I can deal with it.
Anyway, I would trade Andrus, Olt and Perez in a heart beat for Price, Andrus is great, but we have Profar, and I believe trading Andrus is the best way to get the most value out of all our players. Olt is blocked and is more valuable in trade than being a 4 corner platoon guy for us. Perez is still a young, good prospect who struggled this past year, but for 3 years of Price, you gotta make that trade, Perez isn't going to give you what Price does even if he hits his ceiling. That said, I don't think Tampa makes that trade. But who knows. Make it happen JD! If you don't have a free pass from me for life already, you'll definitely have one next year.
That ended up being way longer than I wanted it to be. TL;DR, that rotation is down right sexy, and I think the loss in offense is more than made up by that Rotation
I surely hope JD puts a priority on SP and bullpen. We can play and win with the lineup we have even without Josh and Nap right now. The pitching has to be there though. How comforting was it in 2010 to have that lockdown bullpen? My hope is that JD adds an impact starting pitcher of some variety, another starting pitcher to compete for a spot, and go after some guys to really bolster that bullpen. Let the young guys play in the lineup and let Wash do what he does best: coach and manage situational hitting, good baserunning, and solid defense. Last year's squad lost track of that.
@NBB: when did Ian tell the Angels to get the fuck off the field? I don't remember that, but awesome if he did.
And, yeah, he has a short fuse sometimes (how many times did he get ejected this year?) but I love him anyway. Here's hoping he bounces back next year.
Notify me of follow-up comments via email.