What is your opinion of the A.J. Pierzynski signing?
MJH on accountability
Any takers? I like this deal for both teams. We got Andrus for 2 more yaears. Also we sign Greinke. Who cares what our offense looks like.
Throw in Kinsler
I want Profar playing in a Ranger uni unless he's traded for a stud pitcher or corner bat with the same years of control.
No, but I would for Andrus and Perez.
not sure but i think price qualifies as a 'stud pitcher'.
"with the same years of control"
So we dont wanna trade an unproven SS [minor leaguer] for a bona fide ACE??? REALLY? Tampa wouldnt do that deal anyway.
I said "I don't". Didn't say "we" don't or JD wouldn't. I don't know enough about the Rays system off hand to say what they need or not. But I know they've got a bunch of cheap young arms coming up in the system and SS has been a weak spot on the ML roster. Zobrist can play there but he's better suited at other positions.
If JD called Tampa's GM tomorrow and said, "Let's package a deal around Profar and you give us David Price," I guarantee Andrew Friedman would not be taking any other calls regarding the matter. You're talking about a guy in Profar who will, at the basement, generate 20.0-24.0 WAR over the next 6 years, and at the ceiling closer to 30.0.
That's the type of cheap, can't-miss talent they want for the next 3 years of David Price. Will they get it? I have a hard time believing so, being that teams are so unwilling to give up their prized prospects after the Scott Kazmir/Victor Zambrano trade, and most recently, the Mark Teixeira-to-Atlanta trade.
Maybe we include Olt in a deal, but he's far less valuable in a trade to Tampa due to the fact that they already have a world class-caliber 3rd baseman, that Olt's value drastically diminishes if he's playing first base, and that Tampa's ballpark has a way of suppressing power hitters. Basically, if Mike Olt is the centerpiece, then be prepared for quite a few other names departing our organization.
If you wanna go down the Elvis Andrus for David Price route, that may be a different story. In 2012 David Price produced 5.1 fWAR. If you figure that's probably about as good as you're going to get from him over the next three years (which is entirely possible, because it's a solid figure), That's a ceiling of 15.0 WAR.
Elvis has established himself as an annual 4.0 fWAR player at the ripe age of 24, so if you figure, at the minimum, he produces 8.0 WAR over the final two years of his contract, the other 7 wins must be made up. Martin Perez seems like a pretty good candidate; he's young, controllable. Mike Olt would then be a secondary option. Maybe Tampa sticks him at 1B, maybe at COF, maybe at DH. In that case, you might make the package work. It will probably cost you Grimm or Buckel as an add-in, but so be it.
If you're talking David Price, these are the names you give up. Not Jurickson Profar, though. Untouchable.
How about Elvis,Olt,Borbon/Engel Beltre, Kinsler/Cruz and Perez for Price and Zobrist?
Absolutely not. And to be honest, I'm not even sure they'd take Elvis/Olt/Beltre for Price by himself.
Look, Tampa is dealing with different circumstances than most Major League teams. They have almost no money. Their two most expensive players in 2012, James Shields ($8M) and Carlos Pena ($7.25M), would rank 6th and 7th, respectively, on the Rangers in terms of pay. And the Rangers aren't even a BIG market team... yet. This is why B.J. Upton is leaving, and why James Shields and/or David Price will probably be leaving.
To put things in perspective, Ben Zobrist has generated 25.1 fWAR over the last four years. If each WAR is at its basement price of $4.5M, he's accumulated about $113M of value. In four years. In that time he's made roughly $10M. That's over $100M in surplus value. Those are the players Tampa wants on their team. They want the young guys, the cheap guys, the guys that can add a ton of surplus value.
They can only continue to win with a strong pitching staff. Even without Price and Shields, their pitching will still be good. They have Matt Moore, Jeremy Hellickson, Alex Cobb, Chris Archer, all middle-to-top of the rotation pitchers.
Anyway, point is, the Rays cant afford Ian Kinsler. The only guys we can trade to them of value to them are guys like Elvis Andrus whose contract is cheap who they can get a strong surplus from, or upper-level prospects with upside, like Olt and Perez. Otherwise, they can raid our farm system to make up for the wins Price won't be giving them.
Dave...you're joking with that trade right??
The Rays also have a SS prospect with a good bit of upside that will see time in the majors possibly this year in Hak Ju Lee, that makes their interest in Profar a lot smaller.
Fajita... Lee wouldn't change interest in Profar. They are just different classes of prospects. Lee is a guy you are hoping will hit enough to let his glove play. Profar is considered to be one of the more can't miss prospects in the minors right now. Its like saying since we have Martin in our system last year that we wouldn't have had only small interest in Trout. Not to the same scale but its in a similar vein.
Lee, at least from scouting reports, seems to be a guy that you hope can keep his average high enough to let his glove and speed carry him to being around an average SS. Lee I doubt sees the MLB this year, unless he goes absolutely nuts. He so far hasn't broken a 700 OPS at AA, and he's age appropriate for the league, 22.
Profar is too valuable, even for a Price, for the reasons explained by Eric. If the Rays would sweeten the pot to make up the 6 years versus 3 years of control and Profar's much lower salary, then I would discuss the trade. Price plus one of the Rays' other pitchers would do. Unfortunately for the Rangers, Price is going to draw serious interest from nearly every team in baseball, making getting a fair $ per WAR problematic at best. There is speculation Greinke will set the record for the largest contract given a RHP; Price is better, cheaper, and left handed. The conclusion is we keep Profar, do the best we can with Elvis, and hope the FO gets a lot more money to work with.
With respect to the outfield problem, there are a lot of free agents but few with power and almost none that are on the young side of 30. The Rangers match up well with AZ. They need help at third and short, we have Olt and Elvis. They have some interesting pitchers, but none on the Rays' level of quality. I don't know how TB finds and develops all these pitchers, but if I were the Rangers I would find out and hire them.
Stop with the Elvis for Upton silliness. Please.
If Arizona is as motivated to move him as the papers say then center a deal around Olt. If Arizona thinks they can do better than that then more power to them. Elvis is at worst a top 3 SS that is getting better, and you don't move him for anything less than a bat like Stanton or Braun and not for a pitcher unless it is someone on the level of Price. Since Stanton or Braun don't seem to be going anywhere anytime soon, let's stop talking about moving Andrus for a bat. I would love to see Upton playing for us next season but not for Elvis. We can get so much more for Elvis than Upton.
I for one would like to see an infield of Profar and Elvis for a long time, but JD knows the realities of signing Elvis long-term better than any of us here. If JD thinks it's wise to move Elvis then so be it.
Amen Marktown. I've been saying that for a couple months - that Elvis is worth more than Upton and any Upton deal should be built on Olt instead of Elvis. Only way I deal Elvis is for a true ace like Price.
Elvis is my favorite Ranger. Yes, he is an elite fielding shortstop, but he is a FA in two years and will command silly money. If you keep Elvis and want to play Profar, then Kinsler has to move to the OF or be traded, neither of which will be positive for the Rangers. The Rangers need a big bat and a high quality starting pitcher; Kinsler attracts neither of these. So do you keep Elvis and Profar and diminish the OF with Kinsler? I wish so but I think not. I just hope Profar makes me forget about Elvis.
First you have to think why are these guys possibly available before free their agency. Same reason Texas or some here would make Young or Kinsler available. Good teams do not trade players that will help them unless they stick it to the other team like Tx did when they unloaded Teixeira. Wait for the phone to ring for that team willing to get screwed for a player or go with your farm. There are way too many X Rangers playing for other teams who were traded for that used up over the hill guy that just did not work out like planned.
I just don't see how we can do better than Upton. We need a young, controllable outfielder. All the other ones out there are unavailable. I've said for awhile now how I think this board overvalues Elvis. It's not that he's overrated; that's not what I'm saying. It's just... of what good is he to us if he's going to be gone in two years? And who are we going to get our offense from if there's no Hamilton replacement?
The point is, the Diamondbacks can do better than Mike Olt. Olt is a fine prospect in his own right, but he's nowhere near the amount of wins Elvis is worth over the next two years. If Jurickson Profar, the top prospect in baseball, wasn't ready to go this equation would be a lot simpler: Elvis wouldn't be going anywhere for the next two years, and the Rangers may have already paid his 8-10 year/$150M-$200M fee he's going to command.
Justin Upton had a down year in 2012 because of a shoulder injury. In the last 4 years he's produced 16.4 fWAR, and he's yet to hit his prime. With Josh Hamilton leaving in FA, there's simply no better option to go after, unless you wanna pay $60M+ for either of the other Upton or Nick Swisher. Justin Upton is cheap over the next three years, only $38M. If WAR goes up to $6M (like it's supposed to), you're talking about a 2.3 fWAR player over the next three years to justify the contract. Truth is, he's got a better chance of producing 15.9 fWAR than 6.9 fWAR over the next 3 years.
We have Jurickson Profar; we don't have Josh Hamilton. This seems like an elementary exchange.
Quick question:Couldn't Kinsler put up close to the same numbers Upton has? They're eerily similar and Justin could end up being wildly inconsistent like his brother B.J. I think I lean more towards your (Eric's) trade for Billy Butler to DH and either trade Elvis for an Ace or resign him. Kinsler would probably produce some pretty good numbers in a run producing role. Especially since most of us believe Ian will have a bounce back year.
Getting back to my original post, I believe we could acquire Price for Profar/Perez. I personally don't want to wait 4-5 years for him to peak with 15-20 HRs 75 RBIs 25 SBs and few errors. I mean we still have Andrus for 2 more years @ a reasonable rate. At this moment and for the foreseeable futue, Andrus and will be exponentially better than Profar. TB will be more receptive to take the "up" arrow w/ Profar and his much lower salary. Because if we can get Price and add Greinke it really will not matter if we sign Hambone. Perez sweetens the pot. I see this is as a win-win proposition for both teams. They won't take Kinsler w/ his salary. Therefore, this seems to me to be the most sensible trade. You gotta give a little to get a litlle. We have a solid Middle infield w/ depth. We need to improve Starting Pitching. Pitching wins Championships.
" At this moment and for the foreseeable futue, Andrus and will be exponentially better than Profar."
I Seriously doubt it. This kid hit a homer in his first big league at bat, doubled in his next, and came up with a cluch bottom of the 9th hit in his first playoff game. Profar is special, and he's gonna be wayyyyy better than Elvis and controllable for a long time. I believe JD when he says Profar is untouchable
Yea pussy that's why I took the time to post it bc it was a joke. Omg all of you have dicks up your asses or what?!?
Somebody smell something? I think it's Dave.
Justin Upton isn't a good fit in any clubhouse... he feels he's entitled to be treated like a king and not have to do the work to be worth it. They don't want him in Arizona... why would we want him here?
And, his brother is worse. He's a lazy, self-promoting, arrogant bastard that shouldn't be drawing a Major League paycheck.
We damn sure need 1 more Ace.
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