What is your opinion of the A.J. Pierzynski signing?
MJH on accountability
I know most readers/writers of BBTIA don't want Hamilton back, but I believe the media has amped up him up as a "distraction.". I see noone available via trade or free agency that would fill the gaping hole made by Hambone if went elswhere. Give him his 5 year 125 million contract and give him a 6th year option based on games played. Sign Greinke to since Hamilton can't pitch. I know he'll fetch a lot of money, but hey Young will jump off the books in one more year and Napoli more than likely will not come back if we sign Hambone, so maybe th TXRAN budget could pull this off.
What say you?
All things are possible but very few are probable. Josh is gone and Greinke will be the center of a bidding war similar to Fielder and Pujols. One would be incredible, if both are in the cards Ranger fans should be buying lottery tickets.
Except the Rangers are already overbudget. Will they go another year of going over? Who knows, but it's very unlikely. Josh is gone. Young goes off the books next year, not this year. Counting money you don't have yet is a dangerous financial game.
I really think Martin and Gentry can hold the fort down. If they sign Greinke, with our rotation there isn't a need to replace all of Hamilton's production, just some, which I think Martin and Gentry can easily do.
"counting money you don't yet have"
Normally I would agree with that statement however Fox has already hedged their position. The Rangers have guaranteed revenue. What is not wise is deferring money with expectations of a revenue stream.
IMHO, the Rangers will have serious offensive woes if someone doesn't get traded for or signed to replace Hamilton. With a possible/probable loss of Hamilton, Napoli, and Young the Rangers will need run producers. You WILL NOT get that out of Martin, Gentry or a very spare Upton(sick of hearing his name).
For the most part it is guaranteed money unless Fox files for bankruptcy, which I know is a very small chance. I just don't believe in using funds from future years today, it's not how smart owners run their business. It's like you know you're going to get a bonus at the end of the month, so you go out and buy your flatscreen TV today. But a lot of things can happen until then, your employer becomes insolvent, your A/C breaks, radiator busts, etc.
Plus this is working under the assumption we lose Hamilton, Napoli, and Young's salaries and NOT spend any money, which is very unlikely.
We will have to give pay bumps to Harrison, Feliz, and Ogando and sign new FAs to replace ones that depart.
The owners are already out of pocket, dumping those salaries may get them back on par. Plus I would imagine the owners would pocket some of the additional revenue from the TV contract to make up for the out of pocket expenses they've spent over the past few seasons.
But the bottom line is, unless we know what budget the owners have to work with, there's no telling if we could afford two huge contracts, although I think it's very unlikely.
In regards to Hamilton, I wouldn't worry if they just sign Greinke instead and let Gentry and Martin handle CF. They won't hit tons of HR and RBI, but they don't need to. This offense will still be potent, although maybe it's 1-7 instead of 1-9 like we usually are. But most teams are just solid 1-5. I'll take a well above average rotation with a well above average lineup over an average/above average rotation with a top 5 lineup.
Not to mention you won't be seeing anymore 3 pitches, 3 flails, 1 strikeout ABs.
Keep in mind that the new TV deals that MLB signed, worth 12.4 billion over 8 years (beginning 2014 until 2021), split evenly between all teams is worth about $51.6 million a year to each team, including the Rangers.
Breaking this deal down, it is split between 3 networks: Fox, ESPN, and Turner (TBS). Though I can't find exact numbers on the old deals, the new combined deals were reported to be more than double the old deals. (I was able to find that ESPNs portion went from the current $356 million/year to $700 million a year. This equates to an extra $11 million/yr per team on the ESPN portion annually, but I digress.)
For the sake of simplicity, let's say that beginning in 2014, each team in MLB, including the Rangers, gets about double what they were getting before from the old TV deals. This means that the Rangers, along with everyone else, will have an extra $25-26 million a year in their budgets.
Also, the Rangers private TV deal (worth somewhere between $1.6 and $3 Billion over 20 years, have we decided yet?) kicks in after the 2014 season, one year later than the national TV deals. This will be worth, worst case, about $75 million a year, assuming $100 million was paid up front and the deal was worth $1.6 billion total. The Rangers old TV deal signed in 2000 (combined with the Stars) was worth $300 million over 15 years, with Fox 'kicking in another 250 million to control over-the-air rights for 10 years.' Assuming the full $550 million total was going to the Rangers (unrealistic, but I can't find details), the old deal paid the Rangers $36.6 million/yr. So the new local TV deal also doubles the old TV deal revenues.
Therefore beginning in 2015, the Rangers will have at least $125 million/year in TV revenue alone coming in vs an overly optimistic $62 million/year coming in now.
This extra money could be used to potentially sign Greinke and/or Josh, with only a one year gap to bridge (2012-2013) between the contract and the extra national revenue kicking in, and a two year gap between the extra local revenue kicking in.
This extra money will greatly affect salaries going forward, but it also allows the Rangers to potentially do things they wouldn't have been able to do otherwise, such-as sign two superstars instead of one if they choose. Unfortunately, it also means the Angels will get a mulligan of sorts on the Albert Pujols deals with the extra money coming in each year convering the cost of his contract. Still, the Rangers are in the better financial situation.
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