What is your opinion of the A.J. Pierzynski signing?
MJH on accountability
1) What qualifying offers need to be made to Hamilton/Napoli (any others?) in order for us to get comensatory picks?
2) Is there a chance either would accept this qualifying offer (thinking Napoli more here)?
3) What exactly are the compensatory picks if we make the qualifying offer and they go elsewhere?
I'm sure I could find this somewhere but thought one of you might know already. Thanks.
1.) It has to be an offer of at least $13.3 million.
2.) I think there's a decent chance that Napoli may accept, especially considering that a 1-year deal could be beneficial for both parties, but it wouldn't surprise me if he declined either. From what I've read, the Rangers are actually pretty lukewarm with the prospects of making a qualifying offer on Mike Napoli, but we'll see where it goes. Now with Josh Hamilton, there's no chance of him accepting. Hamilton made $13.75 million last year and is looking for an enormous contract on the FA market, so yeah, you get the picture.
3.) Under the new CBA, if Josh Hamilton signs with another team, the compensatory pick would be sandwiched somewhere between the first and second rounds of the draft.
Yes. Hamilton wont even consider accepting it.
The odds of napoli accepting it, however, are probably 50-50. From most of the articles i've seen, he's looking for a long term contract in the neighborhood of 10-12 mil AAV (down from 13-15 following his breakout year last year). So, the one year deal would be at a higher AAV but he wouldnt have any security. I dont think either would be especially happy or especially upset with a 1 year 13.3 mil contract (isnt that the definition of a good compromise?). Thats definitely the tougher offer for the rangers to make because theyd have to do it knowing theres a possibility he accepts it.
What's the going rate per WAR for Catchers?
In terms of WAR, Mike Napoli's 2011 season was worth $25 million. This of course was his most productive season, a season that strays incredibly from his career norms, so we cannot give it too much merit. Now, going season-to-season, a normal year for Napoli would accumulate about 2.7 to 3 WAR, meaning an average value of about $13.5 million, which of course sits around the new value for qualifying offers. This is why I think it would be beneficial for both parties if Napoli were to accept a possible qualifying offer from the Rangers. This allows the Rangers to make a pretty safe investment, and it also allows Mike Napoli to have the chance to have another big year like 2011, in order to boost his stock on next offseason's FA market.
One thing is certain, I bet Napoli and his agent are kicking themselves for not signing that rumored contract extension in the offseason.
Based on baseball-reference.com WAR stats...
If you take out Naps 2011 season because it was almost double his next best season in terms of WAR, he's at about 1.9 WAR a season over the course of his career. If WAR is worth 5-6 mil, then his value would be about 9.5-11.5 mil...well below the 13.3 for a qualifying offer.
In my opinion, I find it hard to imagine that he would turn down that qualifying offer. Nap know's there are not many good catchers available this year or next year so he could take a 1 yr deal and hope to have a 2011 type season and then cash in next year with a long term deal.
Yea JV thats kind of the issue. Because there are not many good catchers available, he might get an offer considerably above market value. What do yall think about a 3 year 36 mil deal. Worth the investment? too good for the rangers? too good for nap?
I think a 3-year deal for $36 mil would be a great deal for the Rangers, but I really think that Napoli could pull something along the lines of a 4-year deal for around $60 mil on the FA market. I think it's become apparent that prices for FA's are inflating greatly, especially with the incredible capital circling throughout MLB with the TV deals and such, so it wouldn't surprise me in the least to see Napoli sign a contract like the 4/$60 mil I predicted.
What is a COMENSATORY pick?
Well, if he gets that offer, then a qualifying offer for him is a no brainer because thats a 15 mil AAV contract.
Heres what I do (I'm not sure what the timetables on this stuff are but whatever): Immediately offer him 3 years and 36 and see what he does. If its a nonstarter, give him the qualifying offer and go to plan B.
The first pick of the draft? It commences the draft?
Anyway, dont give him crap when he already spelled it correctly in the same post. Everyone misses a letter every once in a while. ;)
Yeah I think Mike G is right. Nap can probably get a 4 yr deal...I'm not sure the Rangers want to make that kind of commitment to Nap. I just don't see him coming back here next year. I think the Rangers will probably have to trade for a catcher.
1) What qualifying offers need to be made to Hamilton/Napoli (any others?) in order for us to get comensatory picks?
I am pretty sure you only get one compensatory pick this year. This one year offer of at least $13.3M has to be given after the World Series is over. I believe the teams have one week to offer them after the final World Series game.
Josh would definitely not accept his, and I would agree with other posters that Napoli most likely would not accept a $13.3M offer either. Again, you only need one, so if Josh is going elsewhere then it makes sense to just use him.
Again, singular. Assuming that the offer meets the above criteria, then two things occur. The team that picks up the player loses their first round draft choice. Nobody replaces them, it just turns into a much shorter first round. (I forget if there is some type of protection for top ten picks.) Secondly, the team that loses the player gets a sandwich pick after the first round and before the second round.
I'm not sure if the order of the sandwich round is based on which team selected the player or if it is based on the amount of the qualifying offer.
Jim Bouton (1) I believe that if the Rangers make qualifying offers to both Napoli and Hamilton and lose both, they will get draft pick compensation for EACH player. (2) Those awarded picks will be added at the bottom of round 1. (3) Assuming there are multiple players who change teams after receiving QO's, the draft order of the awarded picks will presumably be based on the worth of the lost player, like they have done in prior years.(4) The team signing the player will lose their 1st round pick, if it's not a top 10 pick.
Two more items ...(5) Teams with a top 10 pick will lose their second rounder rather than their first rounder, for signing such a free agent. (6) The Q-offers will not be for "at least" 13.3M ...there will be a QO number set, and it must be for exactly that amount.
@David, thanks for clearing that up, especially about the top 10 pick. I think that protection makes sense.
It does make sense to offer both Napoli and Hamilton, if we can get picks for both of them. I also remember reading that compensatory picks can be traded this year. That should be interesting.
IMO it is a no-brainer to make Napoli a qualifying offer, and of course Hamilton too. This brings up strategy issues.
Going forward, all other things being equal, a playoff caliber team should sign players who will be worth a qualifying offer when they leave, i.e. Josh Johnson, James Shields, Ellsbury (not to forgo other trades or free agents that are longer term, though, as long as they are basically 3 WAR per year or more players). That is, there is little reason for a playoff caliber team to sign a free agent or to trade for a starting player who would produce less than 3 WAR.
If he produces 3 WAR, he will be worth a qualifying offer, and thus the Rangers will continue to get extra draft picks that are valuable. However, there is trouble in this! Although getting compensatory round picks at a rate of one or two extra ones per year, going forward could be a huge advantage, the amount that the Rangers can spend on the draft is restricted under the new collective bargaining agreement.
Therefore, the Rangers might be in a position of no money to sign the best available compensatory round pick, or having to trade that pick before they pick it. If the Rangers trade the pick, it would naturally go to a basement team which has more money to spend under the CBA, and doesnt have compensatory round picks to spend it on.
I'm not sure about compensatory picks being tradeable... I know the Competitive Balance picks were tradeable. And, they are also slotted between the first and second rounds. But, CB picks can only be traded by the team originally granted them in the lottery.
"Compensation draft picks awarded to clubs for losing an Article XX-B MLB Free-Agent will be slotted between the 1st and 2nd rounds of the next MLB Rule 4 Draft, with clubs selecting in inverse order of league standings from the previous season."
This would seem to indicate a change from the "slotted according to the value of the free agent lost" historical assignments. Now, they are slotted according to the draft order of the clubs involved? That's tough...
If a chosen player within one of the Rounds doesn't sign, the team gets that slot+1 as compensation the next year. If that choice doesn't sign, it goes to the next year as slot+1 (original slot +2) and, if that choice doesn't sign, the slot is forfeited.
If a Compensatory or a Competitive Balance pick doesn't sign, too bad. No future consideration is granted.
You can't trade picks.
Just read everything Mike G. has written in this thread and you're good to go.
Eric, teams can trade certain draft picks now. Not sure of all the rules, but beginning in the 2012 draft, some picks could be dealt.
First off, I do happen to like Napoli....but....he only threw out 21% of the attempted steals, revrted to his norm with a .227BA and was not receiving high marks on his handling of the pitchers. The Rangers will not make a qualifying offer in the 13mil range because Nap would be an idiot to pass on it and the Rangers would be overpaying by 5~6 mil...he is not worth 13 million based on one good season-a career high in 2011. He has reverted to his norm. I would honestly be surprised to see a team off him 9 mil, tops.
While there is a draft budget in effect now, it is determined based on how many picks each team has and where they are selecting. So I'm pretty sure that if the Rangers get comp. picks for both Hamilton and Napoli their draft budget will increase accordingly. That could actually allow them to draft above their slot in the first round (in terms of what they could pay) and then take safe college guys with one or both comp. picks as the budget is determined based on each individual pick but functions as a total pool of money when handing out contracts after the draft.
As far as whether or not they should offer Napoli a QO, I think they should as even if he accepted and they were overpaying him for this year, it would mean they were less likely to overpay in either money or prospects to replace him. Also, if he does have a bounceback year where he even gets close to his 2011 production, they'd get added value for this season while essentially being assured of a comp. pick next year.
@Ed, yes, found the bookmark and it is the Competitive Balance picks that are tradable.
"These excess picks will go to smaller-revenue teams via a yet-to-be-reported formula. Uniquely, these compensatory picks can be traded—marking the first time MLB has allowed trading of draft picks. However, the current rules against trading of regular picks, or picks awarded as free agent compensation, will remain in force."
It sounds like you better not go over the "bonus pool" money to sign drafted players. The penalties seem draconian.
I think Naps will get a QO and I think there will be a lot of players who you wouldn't guess would get a QO still get one. There is so much money going around that players are gonna roll the dice that they can top it in free agency and teams are aware of this. Also, I don't think teams are overly concerned about a little overpayment on a one year deal as they're not stuck with a long term deal. I think Naps declines it and the possibility remains that he still remains a Ranger depending on what the open market offers him (which I think he's gonna get more elsewhere if guessing at this point).
One more point about Competitive Balance draft picks: While they are tradeable, they can only be traded during the regular season. They can't be traded during the offseason, the playoffs, or spring training.
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