What is your opinion of the A.J. Pierzynski signing?
MJH on accountability
Apparently the Angels may have some timing and sequencing disadvantages.
I'm operating under the assumption Arte Moreno will throw the bank at Greinke until proven otherwise. They simply cannot let him walk after all they gave up to get him and how awful their rotation will be if he does.
P.S. I just realized how much sense a Bourjos/Shields trade makes for Angels and Rays. Kinda worried because I want Shields here.
Well, that's just great. I would really, REALLY not want to see both Greinke and Shields in Angels uniforms, because one, they're obviously great pitchers, and two, they have both shut down the Rangers' bats throughout their respective careers. Games against the Angels could become a whole lot more difficult next season...can you imagine a three-game set having to face Weaver, Shields, and Greinke?
I'd be willing to bet Moreno would love to have Beltre now, and probably for more $ than the Rangers paid for him. I don't know if it was mostly Moreno's doing or Reagins' to lowball Beltre, but I can't imagine they don't regret it now. I doubt they'll do that with Greinke. I think Moreno gives DiPoto a ton of leash for pursuing Greinke, and I think it's more likely than not that he's an Angel.
If the Rangers want Greinke, they will likely be in a bidding war with the Angels, and possibly other teams, and it will not be cheap. I have this feeling that Hamels and Cain might possibly look at the deal Greinke gets and wonder if they could have gotten more if they'd waited to test the market.
Last year, Heyman said that C.J.'s target deal (unrealistic, of course) was something like $120m/6yrs. With the market this year, C.J. might have gotten substantially closer to that if money were an object. At this point, I think that's probably the floor for Greinke's deal. Lots of teams are adjusting to the new CBA rules, and numerous teams have cash from TV deals and such. Greinke will go for a whole lot.
6/120 is possible for Grienke and it was probably never possible for CJ. Grienke is a better pitcher then CJ and if younger to boot and has zero compensation attached to him. All things that should make Grienke even more attractive.
The Angels already have $100 million tied up in 10 players for 2013. I think they'll have money to do one of Greinke/Shields but not both, assuming healthy raises for their other arbitration eligible players. Nobody wants to be over the $186 million cap next year.
I would put the over/under at 25mm. Aces Greinke's age rarely make the FA market. Who would you rather have under contract for the next 5 years in this price range? Greinke, Pujols, or Fielder?
Forget Greinke. Go get Price. Trade Kinsler. Prospects are just that-quit clinging to them. Use them. What good are they if they fizzle out in the minors. We could have had the world 2 yrs ago for M perez. Now not so much as then.For a bat try Carlos Gonzales, stanton. Forget the Uptons.. Toronto has catchers. Call em up. So to sum it up:1. Trade Kinsler2. Trade for Price3. Get a catcher4. Get a bat[Stanton Cargo etc]5. spend some time with your family for Xmas.6. Other minor deals after the holidays once dust settles.
7. And most of all-GET WELL Nefti & Colby
Would love to see the Rangers "bid up" Greinke while working a deal for David Price. Owners' willingness to sign $100+ million contracts this off-season (Greinke, Hamilton, Upton, Swisher, Lohse) might be considerably more narrow than the players and their agents believe. The Angels, Yankees, and Dodgers are carrying a huge amount of salary for underperforming production. The Rangers are poised to force overspending on the top free agent and use the depth of their system to trade for elite players currently under other teams' control (Price, Mauer, Felix Hernandez).
@Tex Baseball you are wanting the Rangers to trade for both Price AND a bat such as Stanton or Cargo?? The Rangers have a good farm but that is ridiculous. it would A) sky rocket payroll and B) kill the farm and hurt chances of being successful for a long period of time.
You mean like the way we have diminished M Perez value? As to payroll you can make that work. Get rid of Kinsler. That's a substantial saving right there. Profar if he is here makes minimum as does Olt.We get rid of Hamilton's salary. It's whether you want to win or stay static. BE CREATIVE. If you rid Kinsler and Hamiltons salary that offset 2 bona fide MLers that we add.
p.s. I'm guessing Olt doesnt have the value he had in August because of the way he was handled. Trade some of these guys and get something for them while you can
Martin's value hasn't diminished. He's 21. Sure, he had ace potential when he was 18 or 19, but now it's dropped to a #2 ceiling. I think he'll be fine.
Also, Olt's value hasn't dropped, either. He doesn't have a large enough sample. Plus, he had shin splints, and wasn't really hitting at all when he did get playing time. Unless you live with an extreme recency bias, there's no reason to believe Martin Perez and Mike Olt won't do just fine in the Majors.
If you think M perez trade value hasnt diminished you are living in an alternate universe. Lets play for next year intead of 3 yrs from now.
If you trade Kinsler, you're essentially saying that Profar is mostly a 2B for the next 2 years, and longer if you want the Rangers to keep Elvis, which will not be cheap. I have no idea what it will take to lock him up, but it will be a lot. And if the Rangers don't do that, you either have to trade for another MIF or plan on one of our prospects to be ready by then.
Trading Ian is not what you want to try first.
And I have no idea what it would take to get a Price along with a Stanton or Cargo, but you're talking about blowing up the farm, Angel-style. At some point the Angels are not going to be able to reload, and they'll have to rebuild, like the Yankees will probably have to do shortly. The Rangers have not taken that all-in approach (they didn't sign Fielder, didn't trade for Greinke), and hopefully that's what will allow them to avoid rebuilding for a while.
Why does everybody think the Rays are willing to trade Price?? No way without us gutting our team. But Shields is a real possibility. And in my opinion, we don't need to break the bank for a Greinke...lets use the Josh $$ for a Lohse and/or Vargas...we would have fabulous rotation with those two, and they won't handcuff us for years to come.
Finally, I know Andrus has some trade value, but I really have a hard time trading him - he's an all star shortstop, a proven big leaguer, Profar is not. Yes, Profar MAY become a big star someday, but that's not a sure thing. Andrus is a sure thing...we need to keep him and make sure we don't let him escape thru free agency next year. Kinsler, Cruz, Murphy, Gentry, Martin or Olt should be moved before Andrus......my opinion for what it's worth....
Bid enuf on Grienke so the Angels have to pay through the nose.
Lohse is 34 whose stuff doesn't play well in the AL and Jason Vargas is a fly ball pitcher. Not a healthy Arlington mix.
Not only is Perez only 21 but he is already putting in MLB innings. Ignore the stats for now; not only are they not likely to be predictive because of his youth, but his MLB stats are unreliable due to SSS.
Not my point. He is not worth in trade what he was worth a year ago. Hence my point is-use these for trades
Forgot to mention, playing for next year is a losing strategy. From a purely mathematical point of view, in the extreme it means you are valuing the next year more than the discounted present value of all future years. Granted, the MLB future is not infinite, but should be measured based on a combination of current contracts and estimated performance increases/decreases based on age and injury factors. If there was ever a time for the Rangers to over wager on the present it was 2012. But that didn't work out and the next season is 2013. So much for putting all of your eggs in a single rapidly amortizing season.
I see your point but hindsight is always crystal clear. I am a huge believer in pitching. It is especially vital in the post season. Perez did not have a great 2012 season, but neither was it a failure. While his value may be diminished marginally, the fact is this 21 year old kid made a MLB rotation ahead of Feldman, Oswalt, Kirkman and every other healthy SP on the roster and the MiL. If pitchers peak at about 25, Perez has upside.
Back to hindsight, at the beginning of 2012 what do you do with Perez? If you don't keep him, what would you have done with him.? Carping on Perez is trimming the edges. The kid was ok. There was a lot more wrong with the Rangers than keeping Perez, which I do not consider to be wrong at all.
good lord you're an idiot primi
@Jim B Classy.
"Lohse is 34 whose stuff doesn't play well in the AL and Jason Vargas is a fly ball pitcher. Not a healthy Arlington mix."
Agreed. Lohse is coming off a great season and will likely want a decent contract, I'd guess at least 3 years but more likely 4 or 5, and he might get it this year with not a whole lot of top pitchers available. The Rangers will not offer that many years to a guy that will be that old.
Vargas strikes me as another Holland type. Sometimes lights-out, sometimes hemorrhaging runs. Don't think we need another one of those, especially if he's a flyball pitcher. Not that all FB pitchers are bad ideas (Weaver and Cain are tops, of course) but one with Vargas's not-acey stats seems like a bad fit.
I don't know much about Lohse but Baseball Prospectus has an article handicapping today's game and notes:
"PECOTA does not like Lohse. It’s nothing personal—at least, as far as we can tell—but the system views the Cardinals’ Game Seven starter as only slightly better than replacement-level pitcher, and hence, it expects the Giants to ride Cain to the pennant by nearly a 2-to-1 margin."
Based on BP's high rating of Cain versus that of Lohse, they give SF a 67% chance of winning tonight. I recall, however, that the Rangers were 2:1 favorites to beat Baltimore in 163 (200 to win 100), whereas tonight's line is 175 to win 100. Go Giants
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