What is your opinion of the A.J. Pierzynski signing?
MJH on accountability
I don't know what the rule number is but it says NEVER, EVER trade good pitching for a position player. Holland has so much up side its not funny. Yes, he is very immature and an attention grabber but I will put up with his age.
Guys another thing, Dutch is in love and there is not much you can do with a kid when he is in love but wait for him to figure out the honey moon is over. I am confident he will and be that top of the rotation guy he can be. I agree with whom ever said it but Perez needs a a year at AAA before he sees the show again. Like wise for Olt and everybody's choice to really screw up the infield Profar. He needs seasoning. At least till he can demonstrate he can 'rake' at AAA. What is he 19 years old. Let him grow up, we have time. Don't panic this will work out over the winter, I trust JD. Well, most of time anyways.
You wanna do Ellsbury for Cruz, Martin and name a "A" baller and I'm good with that. I like Ellsbury's game and would love to see him in Arlington but not at the expense of a pitcher, period.
You can forget about Kinsler getting traded for anything other than a king's ransom. They extended Kinsler long term and it would be a bad PR move to move him before the new deal started.
I suspect you see either Profar getting another year in the minors aging to stop his clock or Kinsler getting pushed out to the outfield. We should avoid MY drama since Kinsler has acknowledged that this shift will occur and Profar starts at second base.
I think Texas is willing to risk Elvis going to free agent market because they have the resources to retain him currently and MY 16 mill will be off the payroll by then.
I could see a deal where Cruz is packed up with some low minor prospects for a younger outfielder to replace him. As I recall Texas has a respectable middle infielder in like high A, Garcia maybe his name, that could be packaged with a A ball pitcher or two for an Upton in Arizona under the theory that Upton handles the production of aging Cruz and his rapidly coming FA. Arizona gets a needed infielder and pitching with upside in 2-4 years and has Cruz to deaden the blow Upton leaving their offense would leave. I doubt that it happens but I think that is more likely than trading Elvis. It feels like Texas has wanted to build around him since they called him up and trading him because you may lose him in FA would not follow that plan.
I suspect if the Hamilton market does not develop Hamilton either accepts a pillow contract in Texas or the long term deal that they can both live with. I don't see the team replacing Hamilton if that does not occur but instead pushing Kins out to LF, Profar at 2B and try to upgrade at RF. Olt sits in minors until MY walks at end of next year and DH becomes roving position in 2014.
I suspect the other great off season move will be locking Harry up to a Holland like deal.I think the rotation looks likeDarvish, Harry, Holland, Perez/Ross/Ogando/<1y FA signing> for 4 and 5 slots.
Profar needs to play SS in the majors. It's his natural position, but he has to earn it. If the Rangers are going to trade Andrus, then the time is now. I will be sad, but keeping Profar in AAA doesn't really help the club.
The Rangers have to resolve their catching situation first !Mandatory !
If not, their pitching staff unwinds.
Currently, the Rangers are the third best team in the AL West Division..... and heading south !
Solve the catching issue FIRST !
Well Bill, what is their catching situation? Can you elaborate for me?
How about Ellsbury and Lester for Holland, Martin, Moreland and whatever.
Justin Upton for Cruz, Olt and pitching.
Will you guys try being realistic with your trade proposals?
catching market is thin. Nap, A.J. Piersynski, and Russell Martin. Our probably the best of the bunch. Maybe the Braves decide Brian McCann could get them some nice pieces in a trade.
The catching market is thin for sure. I like David Ross and Kelly Shoppach. It would be nice to sign Nap but he may be priced out of our range. Same goes of AJ, plus they couldn't throw me out tring to steal. Both Shoppach and Ross (especially Ross) can throw. You could getbeitherbof them for around 3 mil instead of 8-10 for Nap or AJ.
I am curious about what is so out in left field about the trade suggestions?
If Arizona is trading Upton then they are likely focusing on a 2-5 year rebuild window. The depth of the farm in pitching and if you are running under a keep Elvis world view then Profar gets pushed to 2B and Kins to LF than the value to the org of Garcia or Odor decreases. Mix in a Cody Buckelish level pitcher depending on which infielder they chose and I think you would have a core for a solid package to rebuild around for Arizona.
Cruz gives them some immediate return in 2013 while the kids develop and I think you would get Arizona to think about it long and hard. It is a level of deal that Texas may regret except that pitching depth and middle infield depth are very solid. Outfield not so much. I do think adding Olt to the package makes it too costly due to his near MLB ready status. You might convince me to bring him in though I feel adding highly regarded pitching talent as too expensive at Upton's salary costs. The risk/reward gets all messed up.
Upton does have some upside but is on a down year. A Tex style deal would not occur because he is not the same level of player in a pennant chase. Tex was arguably the best first baseman in baseball at the time.
Upton is good but not the same level of offensive threat as Tex. His 3 contracted years are likely worth the loss of talent but both sides have risk in the deal. Texas may pay the expensive part of his contract for less than the 30 homer 2010 version. The D backs take the risk that A/AA players don't cut it.
Ryan, you lost me in your first sentence by saying "You can forget about Kinsler getting traded for anything other than a king's ransom." Ian is coming off a down year and is making $70M over the next 5 years. You aren't hoping for a king's ransom for that, you are dumping a salary.
It doesn't make sense to demote Jurickson Profar to the minors right now, or to move Ian Kinsler to the outfield. None of those two scenarios makes sense. In the first scenario, you are losing out on Elvis Andrus's trade value and putting yourself in a position to move more minor league pieces in a trade for Josh Hamilton's replacement bat. In the second scenario, you are putting Jurickson Profar and Ian Kinsler in unfamiliar positions, weakening your defense two-fold. That, combined with the fact that Ian Kinsler's bat loses a ton of value by moving to a COF spot. Just doesn't work like that.
As for a couple bullet points: Nelson Cruz making $9.5M on a one-year deal doesn't have very much value on the trade market, especially coming off a down year. Leury Garcia, although he's a future utility infielder/center fielder/pinch runner, isn't a top-tier talent in the minor leagues; he'd be more of a throw-in trade candidate.
The proposals of trading 5-6 years of Holland for one year of Ellsbury, or of trading Holland and Cruz + a minor leaguer for Ellsbury and Lester are even more farfetched.
In any trade we make, we not only need talent, but we need controllability. That's why Justin Upton is a prime candidate; he has three years remaining, and he's the type of elite talent you look to extend even further. He had a down year because of a wrist injury, but he's produced 16.4 fWAR over the last 4 years. He's a 5-6 WAR talent, and is only now getting into his prime.
For Arizona to move their superstar, it's going to take a superstar return. Two years of Elvis Andrus (playing a position of need in AZ), satisfies that notion. Two years of Andrus making cheap money + a couple tier-2 minor leaguers (Buckel, Odor, Alfaro, Sardinas -- guys like that) is worth 3 years of Upton making $40M. They satisfy our need in the OF; we reciprocate by giving them immediate, elite SS help, and deliver them a couple future Major Leaguers for when Elvis walks in FA. It's worth it for both sides.
I dunno eric. I think Alfaro is pretty high on the untouchable ladder because of our lack of depth at the catching position and the fact that catchers are hard to come by. At the very least, using him this offseason would be selling low because of the injury he had last season. Personally, I dont like moving him in a package for upton.
I think there has been a miscommunication. I think Kins only gets traded for a king's ransom, not because he is worth it but because the trade would have to be so good as to make up for the damage of signing a player long term and then trading them early in the contract. It is all about PR with FA and players on the team you are trying to extend.
I do not think I said anything about demoting Profar, Olt yes, Profar no.
Kins to outfield is a function of needing an outfielder and having too many middle infielders. MY is at DH so it is not really possible to use it to keep everyone in the line up using the DH. They will not sit Young, it has already been proven so that is also not an option. Profar needs regular playing time so using him as a utility infielder makes me sick.
I agree that putting Kins in the outfield is not ideal because his bat is not as good and I acknowledge that he will have a learning curve in such a different position.
I do not feel that the learning curve between SS and 2B great enough to worry about, with Profar reputation as the one of if not the best defensive infielders in the system. I having a feeling with Kinsler aging that Profar might be a better defender at 2B.
As far as trade value of Elvis, I am in the keep Elvis camp and risk free agency. All the deals are focused on handling the middle infielder logjam. If you want to trade Elvis, than the deal is a nonstarter because it does not solve any problems.
I think a single year contract with Cruz does have trade value. While on a down year, he does still have some upside. His inclusion is more about short term fix for a gap in Arizona's offense.
I am only thinking about the core of deal and not entire deal. Additional monies will likely change hands in such a deal as well as thrown ins on both sides.
You are right on Garcia, I was thinking about Odor but conceptually I was saying a top 10 prospect level player as the core player with a couple of middle tier players. That was my fault for not explaining my thinking process and tossing names out.
I completely agree with you about all the Ellsbury deals I have read about. A single year of him is not worth the price of Holland. I am also worried about who caused the clubhouse problems in Boston and would be leery of acquiring players from that clubhouse. Baseball players are people and I have never seen an equation that calculates the cost of dysfunctional people causing drama does to the teams performance but I am certain that it subtracts wins based on my experiences in team environments. I think just based on the body language in the dug out that Elvis is a positive presence in the organization.
I also believe that if Arizona is willing to move Upton at all for a non rebuilding deal then we need to avoid the deal because something is not right. I don't think you break up an effective team to acquire someone's ineffective team.
I am not big on a Elvis for Upton deal because while it technically solves baseball problems, I think the downside for Texas is too great with Upton's inconsistent performance and the dollar amounts. I think Elvis has better performance consistency.
If I knew Ellsbury would have a 2011 season next year, I'd be tempted to make this trade. I probably wouldn't, but I'd be tempted to.
I'm sure J.D.'s looking into it, though.
If we're gonna do this, then might as well pony up and sign/trade enough to have this lineup:CF EllsburySS ElvisLF Hamilton3B BeltreDH OrtizRF Upton1B MorelandC Soto/Nap2B Profar
Being a GM is the same on the PS3, right?
Ellsbury has had only one healthy season out of the last 3 so even if he did have more than 1 year left on his contract, he'd be a huge gamble to say the least. No way his worth is equal to that of Holland's straight up. Hard-throwing 26-year lefty starters with both a not-horrible track record and a team-friendly contract ($3.2 mil in '13, $5.4 in '14, $7.5 in '15, etc.) are incredibly rare in MLB, maybe even moreso than a decent-hitting catcher.
Injury-prone players are basically reclamation projects and those types of players are usually picked up by bad and/or small-market teams, not contending ones. They can afford to take chances on iffy players because there's no pressure on them to succeed. If the pickup tanks, no one cares. Well, we do here. You want to give up maybe a couple of non-premium prospects for him, that's fine. Anything more and it'd be getting dangerous.
Arizona has plenty of outfield depth, they are willing to trade Upton, Parra and Kubel....they are not going to want Cruz. Tampa is a small market team, they aren't going to take kins and his contact or Elvis because his looming FA status, instead they would want guys like Profar and Olt.
Rangers should trade for pitching not get rid of it. Holland, Harrison and Darvish are locks, I'd love to see Ogando back in the rotation, with the 5th spot being a battle between Perez and Ross. unless we could get a Greinke/Price type pitcher.
don't like BJ, I'd like getting Ortiz.
No way on Ellsbury. I'd rather just sign a guy like Torii Hunter or Cody Ross than trade for a Boras client about to be a FA. As for DH you can't argue Ortiz still puts up great numbers but I'd be cautious about a multi-year deal at his age. Kubel wouldn't be terrible, but I'd feel better about Willingham if they can swing a deal there.
It sounds like the Tigers are just gonna non-tender Brennan Boesch, who had a rough year but still has a lot of talent. This confuses me. I hope the Rangers try and pick him up too.
It all comes down money.Long term Elvis. 18Long term Ells. 16Greinke. 22BJ Upton. 14
And all of this assumes Ells and Elvis stay to go long term.
IMO the Rangerd need a TORP, good hitting OF, and maintain their bullpen. Unfortunately the minors offer no TORP or OF help today. The Rays have an abundance of pitching but with the revenue increases from the national TV contract they may not be compelled to trade. Greinke is the only ace in the FA market and he will priced accordingly. I would not be surprised to see $25mm AAV. After Greinke there is Edwin Jackson, so the FA talent drop off is steep.
There is a better OF market but Hamilton is a lot of production to replace. I am not a BJ Upton fan. I like his brother but AZ seems to vacillate over trading him.
AZ does have a lot of good young arms. Don't know if they are available or good enough (AZ says they need pitching help) but a couple of prospects and their 1B Goldschmidt (?) would be nice to consider. As a JUpton contract will expire in three years (and a Price in two) the Rangers could use some new prospects to fill these gaps, not to mention gaps arising from injury.
Revsader hit the nail on the head. Very few teams can afford to have MVP/all star quality players at all positions and the Rangers are not one of these teams. The Rangwrs need some quality inexpensive players to fill out the line up.
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