First, as a disclaimer, I am in the category of fans that thinks we should offer Josh $0 for 0 years. I’m ready to see his drama walk, and find a way to replace his WAR somehow and rebuild this team without him. I fully expect someone – no idea who – but someone to offer him 5-6 years guaranteed at $25-30 Million per year, and will be happy to laugh at that team’s owner and GM, call them a fool, and enjoy watching the consequences of their terrible deal on the back end.

That said, and given Josh’s history, it wouldn’t surprise me if no one bites for a 5-6 year contract. If that’s the case, what would you do if you were Jon Daniels? I think if the market softens, you do have to take a serious look and make an offer that is responsible with the Rangers dollars. What would I do? I think three guaranteed years at $24 Million per year ($72 guaranteed over 3 years) would be where I’d start. I think that such a contract should also include bonuses for staying healthy – perhaps a $500k bonus each year for the 125th, 130th, 135th, 140th, 145th and 150th game played each season for a potential of $3 Million per year in bonuses should he stay healthy.

Furthermore, I like the idea of automatic vesting options for the fourth year at $25 Million should Josh play 400 games in years 1-3 of the contract. An additional vesting option for year five at $26 Million would be triggered if Josh played at least 135 games in year 4 (and he’d also receive the same incentives for games played as in years 1-3). Should Josh fail to meet the vesting options for either of year four or five, the Rangers would have the choice of picking up the option anyway, or a $10 Million buy-out. So at a minimum, Josh would be guaranteed $82 Million over 3 years. However, should he stay healthy, he could earn $138 over five years.

Throw in some additional bonuses for MVP votes, playoff success, finishing near the top for the batting title, HR title and RBI title so that he could potentially make up to $150 Million over 5 years if he performed at an MVP caliber level. If Josh needs a sweetener, allow for a player option to walk after year one or year two – so if Josh is completely dominating and drama-free in the first year or two of the contract and some idiot team decides that they’ll offer him 5-7 years guaranteed, then yeah, let him walk.

diidn't the mlb ban incentive-based contracts?

24 mil/year is still higher that I would pay him...even if its 1 yr or 3 yrs. Lets just see what the market is for him. I think with his past history and the drama he brings...he isn't going to be as highly sought after as he thinks. Yes he will get paid...but I don't think the Rangers are willing to be in the ballpark of 20-25 mil a year. I say good...I am ready to move on. Lets see what JD can do.

I think he'll draw 15 per unless the deal is very short. 20 is too much for such a known risk on the wrong side do 30.

I know it only takes one...but it's hard to see it.

LAD? Too much already committed.
LAA? Surely they wouldn't splurge like that after last year's binge.
NYY? I don't think these are the yanks of old...
BOS? Gotta be in rebuild mode now...right?

So...I worry about an up and coming team with money to spend that makes a rash move thinking he is the missing piece.

Washington?
Atlanta?

I hope somebody gives him a big contract, I really do. I just hope it isn't us.

Josh won't sign with anybody until February or so. Right now the press is too negative on him. He will let this thing ride well past the winter meetings and let folks get to looking at the holes in their lineups and looking for options..hey, wait, there's a 40 HR, 120 RBI left-handed hitter that is still available...yes, Josh will definitely get his money and years without JD. If not, JD won't get to talk to him until weeks before Spring Training. Long winter boys...

Texan in DC, your dollars are too high based on his WAR.

Also, Josh is trending down. His defense isnt above average and is getting worse. Are you going to make him a first baseman? Unless, you do, and unless he is good at defense at first, then his defense will pull down his value by 1 to 2 WAR a year, which is about $5 to $10 mil a year.

I dont see how he would be worth even 15 WAR over the next 3 seasons, if he can play that long. We used to think Cruz was good but his WAR has slipped to about zero, per Baseball Reference, even with 24 home runs, because of his defense.

Hamilton was only 3.45 WAR the last 2 seasons per Baseball Reference, and his defense is getting worse by 1 WAR each year, just like Cruz and just like most players at age 31, soon to be 32.

If Hamilton is only worth 8 WAR the next 3 seasons, he would only be worth about $12 million a year, but what if his performance declines at the same rate as it is now? At 6 WAR over 3 years (generous by the Cruz analogy) Hamilton would be worth only about $9 million per year.

Watch out.

A series of consecutive contracts might work. Rather than a straight 5 year deal. 5 one year contracts with a voiding clause of some type starting with the third contract might work. That would protect the signing team in case Josh really goes down hill but give Josh a lot of money if he stays healthy

I don't want him on my team at all.

After throwing his body and production into a tailspin in the middle of a season, that tells more than anything else that he is not a team player. I feel he was the biggest reason for the discord in the clubhouse this season. Players made comments about how some days they could tell his heart was not in the game.