What is your opinion of the A.J. Pierzynski signing?
MJH on accountability
Elvis came up from AA ball when he was 20. In AA, he had a .339 wOBA and 98 wRC+. In his rookie year, he had a .322 wOBA, 86 wRC+, and 3.4 WAR. In his sophmore campaign, Elvis had a .298 wOBA, 75 wRC+, and 2 WAR. So even for a SS, Elvis was a below avg. hitter his first 2 seasons. But he was able to make up for it in WAR terms with defense and baserunning.
At 19 in AA, Profar is a much better hitter than Andrus was at 20. Profar's wOBA was .367 with wRC+ of 129 last year. That's amazing for a SS even at AA. This kid can hit. So I don't think there's any reason to believe that Profar next year at age 20 couldn't be about as good a hitter (if not better) as Elvis was this year at age 24.
I can't evaluate Profar's defense and baserunning ability statistically due to lack of data. But if he's anywhere close to Elvis on those fronts, then I think it's reasonable to think that he could replace Elvis at SS without much loss in terms of WAR. That in combination with Elvis's tremendous trade value makes Elvis a great trade chip. I think the Rangers have to try to pull the trigger on trading Elvis.
(A lot of people would rather see Kinsler go. Me too. But I don't think Kinsler has much trade value b/c his contract probably isn't below market. In other words, unlike Elvis, Kinsler isn't currently being underpaid relative to what he's worth in terms of WAR.)
Yes I believe Profar is ready and I believe he is going to be a superstar. No. 1 prospect in everybody's rankings.
Then tradre Kins for pennies on the dollar
Thats stupid to trade Kinsler for nothing. GMs dont give away productive players...If anybody should be given away its young, but nobody would take him..
Profar has a stronger arm than Elvis too.
I see something like this for his rookie year:.260 Ave15 HR.330 OBP
The OPS will be similar or slightly better than what Elvis did this year.
Kinsler is a Ranger lifer. But within 2 years Sardinas, Garcia or Odor will push him into a utility role.
That was a really bad contract. JD just refuses to listen to me.
Profar is better than Machado who is ready now.
I don't want them to trade Elvis, but I can see why they'd entertain the thought. My problem is, no one has given me a trade scenario I think the Rangers and the receiving team would be amenable to.
"Trade him for Justin Upton" is the one I've heard most. I don't think Arizona would trade for Elvis for 2 years unless they plan on contending in the next 2 years. And if they plan on contending, why would they give up Upton, who is among the best offensive guys in their lineup?
Substitute another team and other players, and I still don't have a trade I think both sides go for.
Andy, I think one reason that Ariz. might be willing to trade Upton for Andrus is that they owe Upton close to $40 mil over the next 3 years, whereas Andrus is only going to get $11 mil over the next 2. So if you view Upton and Andrus as roughly equal in terms of expected WAR, that would make Upton more attractive b/c he's under control for 3 years instead of 2. But when you take into acct the huge discrepancy in terms of salary, the scale tips back in Elvis's favor.
Also, I think Ariz. would require more than just Elvis. They're going to want prospects, which we have.
Justin Upton is a MARGINAL improvement over either Cruz or Murphy at best. Someone needs to actually look at the overall player instead of fixating on one or two of their favorite statistics. Upton is erratic and unproven-and owed $38.5 million for the next three years. He is expensive at best and an irresponsible investment in payroll at worst. Let Profar learn the outfield, maybe? If Texas keeps Andrus, let a young speedy kid take an outfield spot. Move him to where we need him now, don't kick out other proven players who are elite get kicked out of the way and find out we lost more than we received..
^ Agreed. If the Rangers acquire Justin Upton, that doesn't mean he should replace Murphy or Cruz on the roster. Cruz could be the full-time DH, for example, and if Olt is ready he could get some starts in the outfield. I'm sure JD will look for every way possible to improve the Rangers, but a team that won 90 games 3 seasons in a row shouldn't undergo completely drastic changes in the offseason. A lot of players that people have been wanting to trade have actually been a huge part of the Rangers postseason runs.
J Upton is a middle-of-the-order 25-year-old MVP grade talent. He's far more than a marginal upgrade on Murphy or Cruz. He's a Hamilton replacement. He has a down year with a shoulder issue. He's exactly the type of player this team needs to acquire. Would prefer to try and pry Stanton put of Mia but Upton would do.
T.O. wrote: "Justin Upton is a MARGINAL improvement over either Cruz or Murphy at best. Someone needs to actually look at the overall player instead of fixating on one or two of their favorite statistics."
I stopped reading after this.
Please enlighten us with this "overall player" analysis that you did to ascertain that Upton is a margin improvement over Cruz and Murphy.
www.baseballreference.com try reading and comparing players. Easy easy even a caveman can do it. I have been watching baseball for over 40 years, Upton is still on the bubble. He's had one good year in a few average years for a young man. Not the kind of player you sell even your stepchild for. But then again, maybe you liked Chan Ho Park.
Elvis = Chan Ho Park.
CDoyle wrote something to the effect that when one has a problem to solve all other possibilities, what remains, however improbable it may appear to be, is the solution.
BJ and Bourne are the best FA outfielders, neither is as good as the younger Upton, and both will cost more. AZ has expressed dissatisfaction with its Upton and wants a new shortstop. Who else is out there: Cabrera, Cargo, Trout, Braun, et al? None of them appear available. Justin Upton would be an excellent player and is the best available OF.
I really butchered that one. "When one solves a problem and has considered and discarded all other possible solutions, whatever remains, no matter how improbable it may be, is the solution,"
T.O. - Upton is having a down year due to injuries but remember that's he's 25. Murphy and Cruz are 30 and 32, respectively. Cruz is only going to decline and Murphy had a career year and isn't likely to repeat. Upton hasn't even hit his prime yet and he's already put up 16.8 WAR over the past 4 seasons. Cruz and Murphy over the same time span are at 11.1 and 8.4 WAR.
He's a 1.5 WAR per season upgrade over Cruz and a 2.1 WAR per season upgrade over Murphy. And this is assuming that their playing level stays the same when in actuality, Upton's is likely to increase as he enters his prime and Cruz and Murphy's are likely to decrease as they age on the wrong side of 30.
@RFan: okay, I can see that maybe. If the Snakes are looking to free up some dollars, giving them 2 years of Elvis, a $10m debt, and some prospects for 3 years of Upton and a $39m debt, that might be something both sides are amenable to.
But wait! Heyman says the Rangers aren't trading Elvis, and he's always right...right?
I still think you could trade Kinsler to Colorado with 2-3 prospects (Olt, Perez, etc) and get Cargo.
I'd really like to see Elvis and Profar up the middle.
I don't know who Colorado's GM is, but I see no reason why he would go for that.
I'm not saying it's a lock or anything like that, but Colorado finished 24 games out of first and their only good tradeable player is Cargo. They could use him to rebuild a little bit without completely trowing i the towel. Kinsler would rake in Colorado and its easier to replace and OF than it is to get a 2B. Obviously, we would have to throw in some pretty good prospects to make it happen...
To be fair, I'm pretty sure they finish substantially higher if Tulo is healthy. That said, if they do want to reload, you're right; he's a good guy to start with. And, yes, the Rangers surely have a number of guys that could make a trade work.
Unless the ownership goes on a massive spending spree, I see no way that the Rangers compete for the division next year without a huge rookie campaign from Profar. For that reason alone, I think he has to be on the opening day roster.
Colorado has ZERO pitching. They went to a 6-man rotation at one point. I think if you went kinsler + ogando + perez that may get the ball rolling. But, I would assume any offer for Cargo would have to contain an overpay in pitching.
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