Sign Bj Upton, trade for price. Hello World Series!

Why do people want BJ Upton? He is as bad as a headcase as Hamilton, and also does anyone remember Carl Crawford? Improve the team from within with the organizational depth, and play team baseball like they did to get to the World Series. Cruz, Kinsler, Young, and Napoli all had down years, they lost Lewis and Feliz for the season, but even with a crappy September the team won 93 games! No need to make any major changes in personnel, just changes in attitudes!

Anyway we can rig the system like I do on MLB The Show and give JD "force trade" powers? If we combined that with a copy of Marty McFly's Sports Almanac we would HAVE THE GREATEST TEAM IN THE HISTORY OF EVER!!!!!!!

"On trading Kinsler: I don't think he brings much in return. In order for his contract to pay out, he'll need to produce 13-14 WAR over the next 5 years. He had 3 WAR this year. So you'd have to find a GM willing to bet that he'll rebound in a big way and willing to ignore the fact that he is terrible away from RBIA."

This seems to indicate it was a terrible mistake to sign Kinsler to that contract. All I've read about on this board from the SABRE-types is Kinsler is much better than what average fans see, and he's much more valuable than given credit.

But if a SABRE evaluation says he's untradeable due to his contract, I can't help but think that was a bad contract.

Do the Dodgers needs a 2B? They seem willing to pick up every bad contract.

Follow-up: the signing is even worse since Kinsler is potentially blocking a superstar-potential prospect.

Kinsler isn't blocking a potential superstar; Elvis is. Profar needs to be playing short. You're wasting him if you play him at 2B.

Kinsler was underrated. From 2008-11, he averaged 5 WAR per year despite injuries. That's huge. The problem is that after he signed his extension, he fell apart offensively and defensively. Despite being healthy all year, he had only 3 WAR. That's a massive decline in production.

The hope is that he'll rebound. Could happen. I'd expect some rebound. But why would a competing GM gamble on an over-30 2B coming off a really terrible season (by Kinsler's standards).

The idea that we "extended the wrong guy" is rooted in the idea that we could have extended either and chose Kinsler. I strongly believe that JD and Co made their best pitch to Elvis/Boras last winter and were shot down. Had Elvis been open to an extension, Kinsler probably gets his 2013 $10m option picked up, and then leaves via FA after that to be replaced by Profar. It was precisely their inability to get anywhere with Elvis that led JD to (a) extend Kins and (b) aggressively promote Profar to AA to start the season in hopes that Profar would allow them to trade Elvis this offseason while his value is highest.

There is a lot of cheap WAR to be added to this club. If I was GM (and thank goodness JD is, but just saying) I might be pencilling in as many as 8 rookies on next year's team:

Profar: starting SS
Martin: starting or platoon CF
Olt: 4 corners backup and platoon DH (with Murphy)
Leury Garcia: Utility man
Perez: SP 5
Grimm: LR
Scheppers: MR
Font: MR

Guys I would bring back:
Belter
Moreland
Kinsler
Cruz
Murphy
Gentry
Darvish
Harrison
Holland
Nathan
Ogando
Ross

Feliz and Lewis at mid season

That's 20 + 2. 5 more.

Guys I would bring in:

J Upton
Greinke
2 Free Agent Catchers
Free Agent Setup man (to slot behind Nathan and Ogando and ahead of Ross and the rookies)

Guys out:
Hamilton (comp pick)
Napoli (comp pick)
Yorvit (already gone)
Oswalt
Dempster
Feldman
Adams
Uehara (could be returning FA setup man)
Yoshi
Lowe

Elvis via trade.

I strongly believe you can do all of that and stay at the 2012 budget.

@Scooby:

I just can't seem to get by on trading Elvis. Gone would be MY, Hamilton, Napoli, and Elvis. Who's left? Platoon players, rookies, and Cruz / Kinsler / Beltre. Beltre is fine, but Kinsler and Cruz are not exactly leaders.

Plus, what message does that say to other rookies that arrive in Arlington? Sign with Boras and you get a quick ticket out of here. Why won't we be able to compete with other teams for Elvis in two years? We will begin our big TV contract, plus MY will be off our payroll.

My understanding is that the new CBA says that a team only gets one comp pick. Plus, you need to offer a one year contract for over $12M to get the pick. That has to be done shortly after the World Series is over. We are not getting a comp pick for Napoli, though I am sure we will offer Josh a one year deal for $12M that he will quickly toss out.

Scooby,

I love your scenario. Here's the problem I see. The Rangers have $10 to $25 mil in FA money to spend. (The $25 mil assumes that ownership is willing to go to the full $135 mil in 2013, which I think actually isn't supposed to happen until 2015.) Trading Andrus for Upton eats up $5 mil. Signing Greinke eats up at least $20 mil. That leaves no $ left over for Uehara or the FA catchers.

Also, how does MY fit into your scenario?

I honestly believe that the best we can hope for is Greinke and Upton. Everything else will have to be generated internally. And I think LA will make a real push for Grienke, so the odds of the Rangers getting him seem fairly slim to me.

JD has his work cut out for him. But it's possible that 2013 will be a playoff team IF ownership is willing to increase payroll to $135 mil and IF Profar is a 4 to 5 WAR player his rookie year.

Hopefully, ownership will be willing to spend next year given that $25 mil comes of the payroll in 2014 when MY and Cruz exit.

Napoli will turn down 1 year at $12.5m for sure. He's going to want 3-5 years. If he took 1 for $12.5 I would not mind that. But he won't.

As for leadership, I think Kinsler is a major leader, and I don't think Elvis is so I don't see a major issue.

And, sure, we could compete for Elvis in FA. But that's going to be too much for a SS when you've got a better, younger one hanging around. That money needs to be reserved for a cleanup hitting type (Upton) or rotation star (Price). But more than that, if the plan is to let E hit FA, how do you plan around that? Kinsler to the OF, Profar to 2B is a bad answer- it means you're directly replacing your best middle of the order bat (Josh) with a top of the order type of bat (Jurickson). I hate what that lineup would look like. Or, you could salary-dump Kinsler, roll with E/Pro in the MIF, and find some other big COF bat. The problem with that is that now you're looking at having massive 2B questions if you can't resign Elvis. Do you really want to hand Bora that kind of leverage?

Josh was the straw that stirs the drink. We need a new straw. Upton is that straw.

For those who think the Rangers are going to extend Elvis, consider this: It's going to take $150 mil+ Are you prepared to give that to a guy with wRC+ 95 as his best offensive season. He's 24 and he could improve. What he needs to do is get his walk rate into double digit territory like Ozzie Smith. But are you willing to bet $150 mil+ that he can do that?

Why take that gamble when you can park Profar (who is likely to be even better) at SS for very cheap. It'd be silly.

@RFan:

I think there's about $10m more than you think. Specifically, I think your original numbers include Scooter at $9m rather than the $750k buyout that will certainly be exercised, and I think you can squeeze another $3-4m in savings put of a Young trade. Basically, I think you have ~$25m after you let all your catchers leave and then spend ~$8m replacing them.

I'm really not sure you can convince Greinke to come here; he hates pitching at TBIA (not the weather; he hates the mound). I wonder if he's the type of guy who would let that weigh heavily in his decision.

I see Elvis costing a lot in FA, but I don't see where there's a precedent for any numbers. Elvis doesn't hit for power but has elite defense. The most comparable guy I can find for Elvis is Ozzie, but that was nearly 30 years ago, and salaries now aren't what they were then.

You guys that are giving estimates on how much it would take to lock Elvis up: where are you getting your numbers?

Baseball Reference shows the Rangers payroll without Feldman's option at $110 mil next year. That does include $8.7 mil under the heading "Estimate of Remaining Costs." I could be mistaken, but I think that $8.7 mil is for pre-arb players.

http://www.baseball-reference.com/teams/TEX/2012-roster.shtml

Andy,

Elvis is a 4.5 WAR player at age 24. He's going to get a huge contract, probably something like 8 or 10 years at $15-$20 mil or so I would think, particularly if he improves his offense a little.

Greinke won't come here because he "hates the mound?" That sounds like Steve Martin yelling "he hates these cans!"

Building a team based on WAR is like driving a car by looking in the rear view mirror. I doubt the Rangers FO looks at it on a WAR basis. Nothing about the way they put this club together suggests that's their methodology.

They managed to find the best two corner outfielders in baseball over a 4-5 year period, either by superior scouting, belief in their individual ability or dumb luck. But Hamilton & Cruz have performed admirably throughout the last 5 years here, and their WAR's were barely perceptible at the time. I liked Napoli before he came to the Rangers, but there was nothing about his prior performance that suggested a 5.3 WAR in 2011. They've performed on the relative cheap, but that is now over.

I've seen the calls to spend on the free agent market, but the Rangers haven't really spent on the biggest ticket free agent. Rather they've gotten arguably the best value the past couple of years by acquiring Beltre & Darvish. I think the Justin Upton stuff is wishful thinking on everybodies part, plus he doesn't replace Hamilton (although I'd like him to eventually replace Cruz). If people like BJ Upton's game (I don't) you might as well promote Engel Beltre, it's almost the same player. Nor do I see them getting involved in any significant way in the Greinke sweepstakes.

I think they have a philosophy and are looking for the best value out there. Whether they can find the next Hamilton, Cruz or Napoli remains to be seen. But I don't think they let the team get too old. But will guys like Martin, Olt & Profar fill in those performance gaps? Nobody knows, but I imagine JD & staff have their ideas about it.

Building a team based on WAR is like driving a car by looking in the rear view mirror. I doubt the Rangers FO looks at it on a WAR basis. Nothing about the way they put this club together suggests that's their methodology.

I think you are sorely mistaken. If you look up and down every position, you'd find that the Rangers are in the + when it comes to defensive metrics, and not one position is in the -WAR outside of everyone's favorite player, the DH, Michael Young. JD is a very SABR-oriented GM, as are many of the successful franchises over the last few years (like Tampa, as a prime example).

@RFan: I know how good Elvis is. I fully expect him to earn a huge contract. But how big? As far as I can see, the only numbers people have thrown around are conjecture based on his age, agent, and WAR. Is there anything concrete, or a similar case more recent than Ozzie, that gives us a reasonable idea of what expectations might be for him?

I made an attempt at a low-cost, internally-driven roster for 2013, and estimated reasonable WAR expectations. It is assumed that this roster would be used in an optimal way (lineup construction, matchups, etc.). Please try to rip this apart:

Role 2013 Player WAR Notes/Expectations
C Mike Napoli........ 2.5 Avg up, K's down, OPS flat
1B Mitch Moreland.. 1.5 MY cut; AB's up, doubles/homers up
2B Jurickson Profar 3.0 Better defense, average, OBP, baserunning out of 2B
SS Elvis Andrus.... 3.5 Same solid season as last year
3B Adrian Beltre... 6.0 Minor regression expected after stellar season
LF David Murphy.... 3.0 Solid year earns the starting spot
CF Craig Gentry.... 3.0 Solid defense, speed, OBP expected from Gentry in full-time role
RF Ian Kinsler........ 2.5 Solid defense, avg up, OPS up; moves out of leadoff role
DH Nelson Cruz..... 2.0 Less defensive liability, OPS slightly up
UIF ???................... 0.0 Flat production expected from backup position.
UIF Mike Olt.............. 1.0 Decent offense from in platoon at 1B/backup 3B
UOF Leonys Martin... 0.5 Marginal offense from OF platoon/backup
BC Geovany Soto.... -1.5 Same results as prior year
SP1 Yu Darvish...... 6.5 Expected to be solid ace and build upon solid rookie campain
SP2 Matt Harrison... 5.0 Minor regression expected after stellar season
SP3 Derek Holland... 2.0 Slight improvement expected with no injuries
SP4 Alexi Ogando.... 2.5 Expected to be solid in starting role similar to 2011
SP5 Martin Perez.... 0.0 Would transition to Lewis/Feliz when return from injury.
RP Tanner Scheppers 0.5 Expect slight improvement based on experience.
RP Robbie Ross..... 1.5 Minor regression expected after stellar rookie season
RP Martin Perez.... 0.5 Dropoff expected due to loss of Mike Adams to FA
RP ???................... 0.0 Dropoff expected due to move of Ogando to starter
RP Michael Kirkman. -1.0 Slight dropoff expected due to reconfiguration/free agency.
RP Koji Uehara........ 1.2 Expect similar results as last year.
RP Joe Nathan...... 1.5 Minor regression expected after solid season
TEAM TOTAL…… 47.2 ~6 win improvement over 2012

@ Andy

Well, Jose Reyes got 6 years and 106 mil guaranteed. Thats 17.6ish mil per season on average. He was 2 years older than what elvis will be, but he also has more power (average of 9-10 hr per 120 games vs 3-4 per 150) and better speed (average steals of 41 again per 120 games to 31 per 150 games). Given the 2 extra years, it may add time but i doubt it adds an AAV (if not a lil less). So, IMO, 8-10 years at 15-18 AAV is about what hed be looking at. And personally, I dont see the yankees going after him. Asdrubal Cabrera is also a FA at the same time, and with the yankees love of the long ball, hes their man to me. But thats just my take.

Jeterdawg, the easiest way to look at it is to just calculate the WAR you expect the Rangers to lose. Through free agency (and assuming Lewis and Feliz don't contribute next year), the Rangers lose 13.5 WAR. Beltre and Murphy are likely to regress, so add another 2.5 WAR lost, and that gets you to roughly 16 WAR that the Rangers need to replace.

I suspect that any wins added by Darvish are likely to offset by wins subtracted from Harrison. Harrison had a 6 bWAR year in 2012. I don't see that happening ever again.

Take the Reyes contract, tack on 2 years because Elvis is 2 years younger than Reyes when he hits FA, another 1 for Reyes' poor health, and 1-2 more for the Boras factor. Add $1-2m/yr in AAV for inflation.

By the way, I'm using bWAR for pitchers in the calculation b/c that makes more sense for this purpose. (fWAR is better for making predictions b/c it factors out luck, but bWAR tells us how the pitcher actually pitched last year including luck.)