What is your opinion of the A.J. Pierzynski signing?
MJH on accountability
I think it is time we Rangers fan accept that the A's train is rolling and it may not be stopped...if you analyze everything they have over come in the last month and still REFUSE to lose again top competition you just HAVE to be impressed with their resiliency.
The suspension to Colon was the beginning of the end....not. The injury to Brandon Inge, finally they are done....nope. Brandon McCarthy beaning, nice run A's but that is the final nail in a good season....uh, I don't think so. Ahhhh but the A's have the TOUGHEST finishing schedule down the stretch.they will eventually fade......you wish.
All indications are this team is becoming a Team of Destiny....as a Ranger fan I don't like it one bit, but as a baseball fan you gotta just be in awe and shake your head and remember Wash's favorite saying, "That how baseball go."
Destiny? Rangers have every chance to blow their destiny right up, and I fully believe they will do this. 7 games vs those uppity chaps. Time to die Oakland. Texas will be your undertaker.
Revsader....I hope you are right but regardless of which team ultimately wins the division we are likely to see each other again in the playoffs. That is the likely outcome of these two teams playing outstanding ball...their just playing better right now.
At this point I wouldn't be surprised if the A's ended up winning the division.
And I wouldn't be surprised if Texas went HAM on Oakland and knocked them out of the playoffs entirely.
I tried to review that roster tonight...and I just can't see how they are winning at such a clip.
-Chris Carter has been up and down between the minors and majors. He comes up midseason for the A's this year...and he's suddenly mashing at .920 OPS?
-Coco Crisp is a journeyman caliber player.
-Johnny Gomez and Brandon Moss have spent as much time over the past 10 years in the minor leagues as they have in the majors. Now suddenly Moss has an OPS of .883?
-Josh Reddick has 10 career MLB homers before this year, despite the luxury of coming up to hit in Fenway. Now, hitting instead in Oakland...in that ballpark, he suddenly puts up 28 this year?
I can't help but be suspicious that something is assisting these players beyond "destiny."
Could it be pitching?
My theory is, back in June, a deadbeat dad told his son they would be a family again when the A's win the pennant.
AJ GriffinJarrod ParkerBrett AndersonTommy MiloneDan Straily/Brandon McCarthy
^^Rotation of DestinyIt isn't the offense, this rotation is really good and underated
I look at Oakland's rotation and I think, "who are these fuckin' guys?"
Rotation of Destiny? Bullcrap.
Their Team ERA--away from that run repressive park--is not as good as the Rangers pitching--away from our run inflationary park.
Rangers: 1.21 WHIP and 3.72 ERAAthletics: 1.31 WHIP and 3.78 ERA
Andy, you are on a roll tonight.
As for the A's, you have to give them credit for their amazing run. If a large part of this success is due to modern chemistry, then MLB will never eradicate something that turns journeymen into MVPs. Seven against the A's will be captivating.
We'll see what happens when destiny receives a dosage of reality. The last 10 games we play Oakland 7 times. We'll go at least 5-2. And there's nothing Oakland will be able to do about it.
On a side note, I'm glad it's like this. We'll be able to roll into the last week with a playoff-type backs-against-the-wall approach, and there's really nothing like watching the Rangers when they go in that hard. Keep complaining, keep worrying yourselves, do what you have to do, but make sure to get your pow's ready from now until the end of the season.
And don't act surprised when we're dominating. I'll just expect everyone to revert back to being front-running fans.
Here's the component the good fans of this site are forgetting ... momentum. The team playing the best baseball late in the season has the best chance of advancing deep into the playoffs, and currently that's the A's! Last year, the Rangers were 19-6 in Sept, and 14-2 over their final 16 games. The momentum carried over into the post-season. This year, the A's have the momentum.
Bottom line ... The Rangers have more physical talent but the A's are playing better baseball and will beat the Rangers 5 out of 7, as I posted a few days ago, many losses being razor thin. This prediction isn't based on sabermetrics, or out of doomed feelings, but simply an old, subjective law of physics that plays a role in all sports. While I hope I'm wrong, I'll say you've got it wrong this time Eric. The Rangers will be in a one game playoff with either the Yankess or Orioles, most likely, with a 92-94 win season.
Based on my entirely subjective opinion, we finish 3 games up on Oakland and they get eliminated in the one game wldcard.
It's hard to not at least shake your head when you look at what the As have been doing. It seems like they've either been treading water when we lose or catching up. Being within 2 games now, I can't see how the Rangers wouldn't look at their series with Oakland as must win games.
I'm not sure if their rotation is underrated or over performing. At this point, it really doesn't matter. The Angels don't look to catch them, and at this point it's hard to imagine Oakland not getting at least one of the wild card slots. I know they have a tough schedule and all of that, but they're right there and don't look like they're going anywhere soon.
I'm tired of you people not giving the A's their proper credit. They've proven they are here to stay - and yet some of you act like they don't pose a threat at all. The A's are only 2 games back. When will some of you wake up and realize the A's have a serious chance of knocking the Rangers into a race for the wildcard.
Are the A's going to win the division? Could happen, but it's highly unlikely.
Baseball Prospectus gives the Rangers a 79% chance of winning the division and the A's a 21% chance. To my knowledge, the Baseball Prospectus projection system is the best that's publicly available, and it is far superior to the guts of pessimistic fans whose opinions are subject to recency bias. The fact is that according to third order win percentage (which factors in strength of schedule) the Rangers are far superior to the A's. The Rangers third order win percentage is 60% (best in MLB). The A's is 55% (9th best in MLB).
Division races usually come down to the final days of the season. That is how baseball works. It's not time to jump off the ship. The Rangers have the best team in baseball, they play in the best division in baseball, and they are relatively healthy. I've never been more confident in a Rangers team.
why do people rely on sites like baseball prospectus? what is the 79% chance even based on?
at any rate, i'm a little worried because the rangers are being managed by someone who lacks foresight and a sense of urgency. the a's are at the rangers' heels and washington does stupid shit like leaving joe nathan in the game to give up several consecutive hits or relegating perez to the bench while feldman gives up 6 runs to the mariners.
"why do people rely on sites like baseball prospectus? what is the 79% chance even based on?"
Because some people prefer informed, objective analysis based on data rather than uninformed, biased opinions. You are criticizing a projection system that you admittedly know nothing about. With all due respect, why should anyone trust your opinion over Baseball Prospectus?
Anyone who would like to learn about the Baseball Prospectus playoff odds report, the PECOTA projection system, and third order win percentages can easily do so if they have access to the internet. If you want to criticize Baseball Prospectus, that's fine. If you want me or anyone else to take your criticism seriously, then you'll have to articulate specifically why you believe the Baseball Prospectus projections are flawed and why you believe your own projections are superior. It's that simple.
Whether it's reading tea leaves or basing things on percentage, the bottom line is no one knows. 21% isn't just some small percentage. It's a significant chance. Rounding it out Vegas style, that would give the As a 1 in 5 chance. I realize how impractical it seems to look at 21% like it's an impossible number, but it really isn't.
So don't pretend either prediction has any real merit because they both say in the end that they don't know. We don't need numbers (other than games back and such) to know that it's gonna be hard for Oakland to overtake us. But we don't need them to know that they can. This time next week, who knows?
I'd rather have a 4/5ths chance of winning the division than a 1/5th chance.
By the way, sabermetric analysis is much better than reading tea leaves.
RFan opines, "By the way, sabermetric analysis is much better than reading tea leaves."
True. I've tried the tea leaves method. Trust me...it sucks. Sabermetrics is an effort to apply science to the evaluative process. Over time scientific process is certain to crush competing methodologies.
The tricky thing, of course, is that this baseball science is evolving rapidly. Fans who ignore the developing trends of saber-metrics (NEXTGEN) can sometimes sound just as foolish as posters who pull their conclusions out of their butt...posters like wingsofjoy.
My point with the tea leaves comparison was meant to be far fetched. It was merely a breakdown that at the end, it's still just a guess. Whether educated or otherwise. Even the most sophisticated stats can't account for intangibles, so regardless of the numbers that it spits out, it's still just a guess.
I agree that it's silly to ignore them outright, but it's just as silly to place all of your trust in them. As it stands at the moment, it looks like we will go back up by 3 games. Anything can happen, and I'm hoping the stats hold true, but just because the stats say it's unlikely you will get murdered today, you can't ignore the man on your doorstep holding the gun. Maybe a bit of a dramatic comparison, but I think it still makes the point.
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