TxBall stumbles, "Having 3 pitches above the mean does not mean 3 PLUS pitches."

I don't mean to embarrass, but that is EXACTLY what it means.

hsbaseballweb.com: "A plus pitch is a pitch that sets the pitcher apart from the norm."
baseballnewshound.com breaks it down like this:
The 20-80 Scouting Scale

20-25: Very Poor
30-35: Well-Below Average
40-45: Below Average
50: Low Average
55: Solid-Average
60-65: Plus/Above Average
70-75: Plus-Plus/Well Above Average
80: Outstanding/Top-Tier

It's not too complicated.

Plus is + relative to mean or average.

You are very bright...How do you not know this, TxBall?

No disrespect, ProfarMVP, but what 3 pitches do you consider Matt Harrison to possess that are in the 60 scale? I will concede he has a topflight cutter/2-seam fastball combination for a lefty, but what else? His K rate dropped in 2012 from 2011, from 6.11/9 IP to 5.61/9 IP. That suggests his 4-seam fastball isn't dominant (which, although he throws pretty hard, doesn't miss a ton of bats), and that he doesn't produce a true out off speed pitch (whether it be his curveball or slider).

They say, to have success in the Major Leagues, you need two above average pitches. For Harrison, that's his sinker (or two-seam fastball) and cutter. If he had a third plus pitch, he'd be a 7+ K's/9 IP pitcher. In other words, he'd be an improved version of Derek Holland, who has a swing and miss FB, curveball, and slider. I'm not saying Harry isn't good, because his ERA over the last two years speaks for itself.

Just looking for your reasoning here.

Tommy P,

I wasn't the one claiming that he featured 3+ pitches. The statement was made by Jack Moore at FanGraphs.

Here is the statement in context,
"At $11 million per season ($13 million in the bought out free agent years), the Rangers are paying Harrison as just a slightly above-average starting pitcher. Harrison is young and has shown durability the last two seasons (62 starts). Even if his results fall back to his peripherals, Harrison will well outpitch his contract. Even if his home run rates and BABIP regress to the mean — and, it should be noted, the mean pitcher does not showcase as good a fastball, sinker, nor changeup as Harrison — Harrison will still be at or near the performance called for by this pact."

You are sorely mistaken ProfarMVP. Reread that sentence. Do you truly think the mean pitcher showcases average pitches in every category? Do you know what a "mean pitcher" is? Do you know what a pitcher looks like with "mean" BABIP, LOB% and HR/FB rate with Matt Harrison peripherals?

It isn't very good. Logically, don't you think it would've been MUCH easier to say "Harrison possesses 3 PLUS pitches" as opposed to wording it in the fashion as he did. I assure you - Harrison does not have 3 plus pitches.

Also, "Harrison will still be at or near the performance called for by this pact". These are HIS expectations. Not an average of 5+ WAR - but near 3 WAR. Does that sound like a TORP to you?

Now, before this looks too much like I'm bashing Harrison - I think he's a very solid pitcher and the Rangers did very well to sign him to this extension. I just don't overrate his talent like you're doing.

The league average starting pitcher:

7.14 K/9
2.84 BB/9
.294 BABIP
71.5 LOB%
45.1 GB%
11.8 HR/FB%

4.19 ERA
4.13 FIP

(runs saved per 100 pitches thrown by pitch type)
-0.25 wFB/C
0.25 wSL/C
-0.16 wCT/C
-0.07 wCB/C
-0.10 wCH/C
0.35 wSF/C

Matt Harrison runs saved per 100 pitches

2012:

0.59 wFB/C
-2.40 wSL/C
-0.14 wCB/C
0.95 wCH/C

Career:

0.13 wFB/C
-1.85 wSL/C
-0.05 wCB/C
-0.06 wCH/C

Just for a comparison - here are Yu Darvish's numbers per 100 pitches thrown (and I truly expect these numbers to get better...droooool):

-0.78 wFB/C
3.00 wSL/C (not 0.30 but 3.00!)
1.32 wCT/C (look, another whole number!)
0.32 wCB/C
-4.48 wCH/C (yuck!)
1.27 wSF/C

That, my friends, is just the beginning. Just from a token glance and making short sighted conclusions based on numbers alone (which you shouldn't really do) - those look like we're looking at MULTIPLE plus pitches without visuals, heatmaps, and trajectories/movement.

Okay, I'm done.

You can stumble your Harry jolly rancher butt up to the plate now, ProfarMVP. ;)

Raising the ante, Txball?! I like it. About time you raised your game!

Of course I'll have to crush it...er.uh.... Harrison will have to crush it...tomorrow. :-]

I'm always on the button. I'll bully your raises all day long and make you fold your lower bound of your range UTG unless you come ably prepared. Better tighten up, buddy. You're missing too many flops. :)

The Rays fan site, Ray's Colored Glasses, has the following piece comparing The current Harrison extension with given Shields by the Rays. Not an detailed a critique as RFan, Profar and others have contributed here, but an interesting outsider's perspective.

The site is extremely interesting. like BBTiA, the site attracts serious fans : not as much Sabre, less member participation. What caught my eye was my perception that the site's constituents are very familiar with the team's expectations. They understand the team's financial challenges and accept them. This translates into very little big name commentary, at least as it relates to the Rays, and has in depth articles on less prominent players. While fans like those of the Rangers, the LAS, etc. may dream of Greinkes, Uptons, Hamilton's, and others gilding their teams' rosters, there is no such self delusion in TB; they know what is possible and they don't wail against it. They seem to embrace it.

http://rayscoloredglasses.com/2013/01/23/texas-rangers-matt-harrison-extension-could-be-a-major-mistake/

Don't agree with the writer's perception that the contract could (and probably will) be a mistake, but he does address the same types of issues some of us have with Harry. He's also off base calling Matt our "ace".

The logical argument many of us have isn't that Harrison is not a good pitcher; it's that he's not as good as his ERA indicated. $11 million AAV for 5 years is basically asking him to produce 2.0 FIP-wins a year going through his prime. I don't think that will be a problem. But at the same time, I'm not expecting him to have even one more season over the next five that is better than the last two years he's had.

"He's also off base calling Matt our "ace"."

Yes, I don't get this. Unless he thinks it's seniority-based and therefore Yu isn't eligible for that title. But there's no way anyone with the Rangers - team, management, or anything else - don't consider Yu to be the ace. His stuff is just filthy, and if he continues to look like he did over the last month and change of the regular season, he'll be a Cy Young candidate. There's not much reason to think Harrison will be at that same level.

If the Rangers viewed Harrison as an ace, they'd probably have given him closer to 9 figures. Yes, this contract could backfire. It could also be very friendly. As it is, I think the most likely outcome is that it's pretty close to the value he will likely provide over the duration, unless he has a devastating injury or pulls a Rick Ankiel.

I've never seen so much inane, queer inside press over a 3-4 starter.
Let me see a few complete games, therefor resting our bull pen
and we'll talk stalwart and kudos. Harry is likely to fold as he is to
progress to a solid three. His eyes are still as a "deer in the headlights".
Maybe 2013 can change my overall view of Harry, but....

538 Post for Harrison's worth??? WhaaaarghLOL rofl LMAO pooooooooof