Also, if you average Harrys WAR over the last 2 years it would give you 4.7. Going by the arbitrary 4.5 mil per WAR point, thats 21.15 mil a year.

Thats correct nateaggie. Of course the other side of the negotiation table would want to use FWAR instead of BWAR.

If Harry is worth 400 posts...is he worth $100 million?

RFan presses his point, "Until you address this point directly and explain why we should expect Harrison to continue to post a BABIP 20 points below his career # with men on base, you aren't advancing the ball. You're just repeating your anti-FIP dogma, and that's clear to anyone who's still bothering to read this thread.

How many times do I have to repeat myself RFan? I've already said that I expect some regression on Harrison's strand rate. That's why I see his longterm ERA+ between 3.2 and 3.4.

Lol exactly. "Worth" when talking about more money than any of us can even wrap our heads around is really a kind of silly term.

"I've already said that I expect some regression on Harrison's strand rate. That's why I see his longterm ERA+ between 3.2 and 3.4."

Harry has 2 LOB wins this season. That's huge. It accounts almost entirely for the difference between Harry's RA9 wins (6.0) and his fWAR (3.7). Harry had -0.2 LOB wins for his career coming into this season. My contention is that his long run LOB wins will be near 0.

If you agree with me on that, then you and I are arguing over nothing. B/c if you agree that his LOB wins will zero out, then you agree that his fWAR is a good measure of his talent level. And since his fWAR is based on his FIP, then you agree that his ERA will converge with his park adjusted FIP going forward. Harry's FIP this year is 3.95.

So do you agree with me? Or do you think that Harry will continue to outperform his fWAR in the future? If it's the latter, why do you believe this? Do you think he will continue to post large LOB wins? If so, why?

I'm willing to listen. You've just got to make the case. There are only 2 ways that Harry can continue to outperform his fWAR (i.e., FIP-based WAR). Those are BIP wins and LOB wins. Harry has never posted large BIP wins. So I assume you are arguing that he will continue to post large LOB wins? Is that a fair assessment of your position?

"Also, if you average Harrys WAR over the last 2 years it would give you 4.7. Going by the arbitrary 4.5 mil per WAR point, thats 21.15 mil a year."

Nate, I'd argue that Harrison's 4.4 fWAR in 2011 was inflated due to a low HR/FB rate. He hasn't sustained that this year, which was predictable given that it was unexpectedly very low for someone of Harrison's profile.

Harry's fWAR this year is 3.7, suggesting he's worth b/w $15 to 18 mil / year, unless you expect him to get significantly better. But he's not a FA until 2015. So the question is whether anyone would offer him a $100 mil at that time. If he continues to put up sub-3.4 ERA numbers for the next 3 seasons, my guess is that the answer is yes. But it's highly unlikely he'll do that unless he finds a way to improve his FIP.

I was commenting on your comment:

The final point that I'd make is that if Harry really is a consistent 3.0 to 3.5 ERA guy at age 26 as Elvis claims, then he's easily worth $100+ mil on the FA market. Do you think anyone would pay him that? Do you think the Rangers would pay him that? When you watch him pitch, do you say, "This is a guy who the Rangers should lock up at $100 mil"? I sure don't.

I assumed that since you said at age 26, you meant assuming hed be a free agent after this year.

You're right. I should've been clearer.

nateaggie writes, "When you watch him pitch, do you say, "This is a guy who the Rangers should lock up at $100 mil"? I sure don't."

He sure doesn't impress my eye-test either. That's central to the whole thread. But aren't we saber-friendly fans supposed to stay clear of eye tests and let numerical analysis rule?

An update on how Harrison has fared the past two years compared to Felix Hernandez:
In short, he's crushed him two years running.

2011 Park Adjusted ERA (ERA+)
Matt Harrison 130
Felix Hernandez 107

2012
Matt Harrison 143
Felix Hernandez 130

RFan, I've had a sleeping pill and two cocktails and I wouldn't trust my own conversion to FDP metrics right now.

Suffice it to say...Here's why I persist in saying Matt is one of the exceptions to FIP that Cameron talks about. Or to put it another way...why his performance and ongoing potential far exceeds his peripherals.

1. His high DP rate. (LOB)
2. His fielding (LOB and BIP)
3. His ability to hold runners on (LOB)
4. His high ground ball rate (LOB and BIP)
5. His consistency (I'll address this in my next thread) (BIP)
6. His velo--and ability to maintain it late in the game. (BIP)

This final aspect is something I haven't properly emphasized in this thread. Matt is far different than your average FIP over-performer. Most can't throw 95 in the 9th inning. Most aren't 6'4 240.

Harrison was once the #1 prospect in the Braves organization for a number of very good reasons. He misses a ton of bats...from a barrel perspective.

It's interesting to see the guys on the opposite end of the spectrum from Harrison...the FIPFLOPs on the underperformance side of the game...a guy like Derek Holland or Zack Grienke.

What each of these guys lack is the consistency of a Matt Harrison. I'll say it again: It's not so much about your best pitches as it is about your worst pitches.

FanGraph's Jack Moore explores the issue here:
http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/with-greinke-always-more-questions-than-answers/

The other night Zach thew 13 strikeouts in 5 innings. The downside? He gave up 7 hits, 2 walks and a homer over the course of those 5 innings. His ERA and FIP...often bear almost no relation to one another.

I see you never responded to my bet proposition.

2011 Park Adjusted ERA (ERA+)
Matt Harrison 130
Felix Hernandez 107

2012
Matt Harrison 143
Felix Hernandez 130

I forgot! Matt Harrison should win the Cy Young! ERA+ for everyone! It's the most important pitching stat in baseball!

w00t

Eric...You continue to stumble on this. Please employ the required intellectual dexterity to discern between a performance stat...and a predictive metric.

ERA+ is a performance stat. SIERA/XFIP are not. You are abusing the very purpose of Saber. XFIP/SIERA aren't used to measure accomplishments...they are used to formulate predictions.

ERA+ on the other hand tells you what a pitcher DID or FAILED to DO. A fan who deeply understands SABER would certainly use predictive measurements to inform their predictions. But at the end of the day the currency of baseball is runs...and that's how a true fan bets.

Get clear on it: You don't bet another fan using xFIP or SIERRA! It's complete foppery.

Stick the w00t where the sun don't shine, bet dodger.

Matt Harrison, a ridiculous 310 foot homer aside, dominates A's, critics and bitchy fans.

Even when he's not got his A Game...and the park is stank with run inflation...he gets it done. Congratulations, Harry on your 18th win of the season. Clutch.

Team MVP? His BWAR at the least puts him in the dialog.

If 6 IP, 7 H, 4 ER, 1 BB, and 2 K on 99 pitches is dominating...then there are a LOT of dominating pitchers in this league. Pedestrain effort today by Harrison, but it ended in a win, and that's what matters. Clutch? The offense today was clutch...every time Harrison gave up a run, the offense answered in the bottom half of the inning. That is clutch.

We should re-title this thread Harrison's Critics Dominate

After another shaky start, Matt Harrison's offense bailed him out. That "clutch" 18th win belongs to the offense, which is why wins and losses are so erroneous. To even mention that as a basis for evaluating a pitcher is just stupid, stupid, stupid.

How can you call me a bet dodger when you are laying out the terms? I countered with xFIP to balance the scales, because I've already told you ERA+ alone isn't going to get the job done. I'm even giving you autonomy to choose the third metric.

Let's see, K's per 9 (performance)? No. No way Matty takes Holland there. SIERA (predictive)? Eh, not there, either.

Face it, unless you have ERA+, you can't win this bet if it's a best of 3 different categories.

Alan...you do understand the Ball Park's Run inflation, right...Those days when the part takes over?

If there was any doubt that today was one of those BBIA-RUN-INFLATION-STANK-DAYS:
Just ask Mike Adams.... 2 outs recorded, 3 HRs surrendered.

In that vortex Prince Harry ventured...and conquered. Yet again.

Eric, done. We expand it and use two PERFORMANCE metrics: ERA+ and BWAR. Full Season 2012.

You've got Perez and Holland (whoever does best)
I've got Harrison.

ALL. THE. WORLD. IS. WITNESS.

Typos are killing me today.

Eric, done. We expand it and use two PERFORMANCE metrics: ERA+ and BWAR. Full Season 2013.

"Matt Harrison, a ridiculous 310 foot homer aside, dominates A's"

So let me get this straight. When Harrison had bad games against Tampa and Kansas City, you claimed we should ignore those games a "fatigue related." Now Harrison has a 6.0 ERA game against the A's and you're arguing that he dominated them b/c a 310 foot homer shouldn't count and RBIA inflates runs. You're sinking to a new level of disingenuousness in this debate. If we ignored "fatigue related" outings and "cheap" hits, I imagine a lot of pitchers would start to look like Felix Hernandez. You don't get to throw out data simply b/c it's inconsistent with your hypothesis.

The fact is that 6 starts ago I predicted Harry's future ERA would be between 3.8 and 4.1, and you have since claimed over and over again that I was way off the mark. That the stats I used to make my prediction are outdated and flawed. That "NEXTGEN" will someday show how misguided I am, etc., etc.

But since I made that prediction, Harry's ERA is 4.25. It's still a small sample and time will tell who's right, but I still feel very confident in my prediction.

bWAR sucks. How about fWAR?

Eric,

FWar is in such sorry state that FanGraphs has conceded to the wonky results it can produce. They are planning on overhauling it. That's straight from the horses' mouth, Dave Cameron.

It's BWAR. Man up. Fall in.

I'm not going to man up to stats I don't believe in. bWAR and ERA+ are next to worthless to me. At least I tried to work with you here.

RFAN,

And where did I ever say the 310 foot homer "shouldn't count" I'd never say such a silly thing. Harrison has to live with what he's dealt, as unfair as BBIA's run inflation can be some days.

Rfan writes,
"If we ignored "fatigue related" outings and "cheap" hits, I imagine a lot of pitchers would start to look like Felix Hernandez."

Including all the outings and including all the hits...Harry *does* look like Felix. In truth he looks better—based on the numbers. Two seasons of royal superiority are nearly in the books now.

Harrison has pissed gasoline all over the FIP expectations...and farted fire balls all over McCracken's old SaberLodge. OLDGEN is close to ashes.

But Prince Harry...he'll have a wing all his own in the NEXTGEN Palace.

Eric, this is the part of the game where I say CHECKMATE. (Closing out Round 2 of my defeat of Boris Spassky)

1. Weeks ago you unwaveringly linked a pitcher's long-term success to his peripherals. But Wikipedia defines Peripheral ERA (PERA) as "a pitcher's expected ERA taking into account hits, walks, strikeouts, and home runs allowed." Let's repeat this: PERA by definition is designed to predict ERA.

2. Yet on Sept 27, 8:34 pm Eric Reining hereby refused to use PERA for the explicitly defined purpose of it's existence—yes, to predict ERA.

All in this body can now duly note Mr Reining's renunciation of PERA...that which he had declared as the foundation of all his arguments.

Your refusal to bet on these terms (ERA) hereby constitutes concession of your defeat.

Thanks for playing.