I know Holland has the long term deal already. But if you can go back would you rather have given it to Harrison instead of Holland? I know Holland has the better stuff and more upside, but Harrison was consistent all year last year and is outperforming Holland again this year. Holland is still inconsistent.

Harrison has been healthier, and I think that is the difference between the two.

I would still have given the contract to Holland (because of the upside you mention), but Harry is making a strong case that he deserves one himself. I think the fan base has had lower expectations for Harrison and been more forgiving of his snafus, so they are pleasantly surprised at his continued success. Holland, on the other hand, has had people trying to peg him as an ace, so of course any hiccup in his development and people start claiming he's a bust.

Would I rather give it to Harrison instead of Holland? No. Do I wish they'd also locked up Harrison? Kinda. I don't see Harrison likely to ascend to ace heights, but I think he's definitely worth having in our rotation. I imagine that if they thought about it, they might have held off extending him with the possibility of trading him, and extending him might have made him a little less attractive. That was, of course, when we had 7 guys contending for the rotation.

If he accrues another 4 WAR season, we should definitely lock him up. Unless we can trade him for an ace. Being in one of the most hitter-friendly parks, we can use all the inning-eating groundball pitchers we can get.

Harrison (3.54/3.95) has a better ERA/xFIP than Holland (5.18/4.17). But Holland's SIERA (3.87) is better than Harrison's (3.97). When it comes to predicting future ERA, SIERA is better than current ERA and xFIP.

Holland has a low LOB% (63.4% vs. league avg. of 71.5%). Last year, Holland's LOB % was 73%, so I don't think there's any reason to assume that he chokes with men on base. Also, Holland's HR/FB rate is higher than league average and higher than his career average. So Holland's gotten unlucky. Hits have come at the wrong time and FBs have turned into HRs.

I don't see a lot of trouble signs in Holland's underlying #s. His K/BB rate (2.46) is at a career high. His line drive % is in line with last year (20%). His swinging strike rate is higher than last year. The only trouble signs I see are that his GB rate is way down and his FB rate is way up. But that could just be due to a small sample. And his velo is down, but that could be due to the virus.

For those who don't believe stats other than ERA are helpful in evaluating pitchers, I'll point out that just a few weeks ago, Harrison had a very high ERA and some posters on this site were saying he should be sent to the bullpen (or minors ?!?). At that time, his SIERA suggested that his ERA would come down and it has. Luck plays a big factor in ERA, especially over a small sample.

I think they should lock up Harrison. He's been pretty consistent this year and last and we gotta keep these young pitchers together (Darvish, Holland, Feliz, Ogando) if we want to have continued success.

Nice work, RFan. I like the application of SIERA (I've always believed it to be the superior metric).