What is your opinion of the A.J. Pierzynski signing?
MJH on accountability
So I thought this would be a fun experiment. I wanted to figure out how many "wins" the rangers will need to replace after this year and next, assuming they don't re-sign anybody who is hitting free agency in that time. I recognize it is unlikely that none of these players would be re-signed but I thought it might provide some perspective when thinking about who the rangers should keep and who they should let walk.
After the 2012 season, here are the players the rangers lose along with their WAR totals from 2011:Mike Napoli--5.5Josh Hamilton--3.6Mike Adams-2.9 (total from SD and Texas)Koji Uehara--2.2 (total from Bal and Texas)Colby Lewis---2.1Yorvit Torrealba--0.8Scott Feldman--.4**Mark Lowe--0.0Total WAR lost after 2012--17.5
Players Rangers will lose after 2013 along with WAR totals from 2011:Michael Young--2.4Nelson Cruz--1.4Joe Nathan--0 (in his last full season his WAR was 3.2)**David Murphy-- (-0.5)Total WAR lost after 2013--3.3
That brings the total "wins" that the Rangers could potentially lose in free agency over the next two seasons to around 20.8...24 if you want to use Nathan's 2009 WAR. For some perspective if the Rangers were 24 games worse last year, they would have finished 72-90 and 13 games behind LAA. I know that numbers isn't totally relevant since guys like Nathan weren't here at all and Adams/Koji weren't here all season.Obviously the rangers won't be able to keep all these guys, nor should they. It will be interesting to see which guys they choose to lock up.
**I figured these players into the totals but they do have option years for the following season.
Bring this up after a loss like last night, just add the salt to the open wound.
You gota try to keep Nap, Torre, Adams, this year. I LOVE contract Hammy but you gota let him walk.and I would like to see Murphy and Cruz come back but if we lost them..... meh. there is no way MY gets resigned.
But having said that if we loose them all I trust JD and Nolan to find there replacements.
WAR is not (and should not be compared to) a # of wins! It is Wins Above a Replacement-level player. What you're essentially saying is, the Rangers will let Adams, Koji, Lowe, Colby, and Feldman all go, and then replace them with the equivalent of 5 Mark Lowe's. If you believe the Rangers will sign absolutely no one of value next year, then this team is doomed more than you think. I would guarantee that even if you replaced Hamilton with Leonys Martin next year, you're not going to lose 3.6 WAR (Hamilton's 2011 WAR).
This is the same crappy argument the Angels used when they signed Pujols and CJ: "Oh we just signed 11 WAR, and we were 10 GB of Texas, that means we'll make up that 10 games and win the division!!"
Except, they didn't take into account they were removing Trumbo (2.3 WAR) from 1st base, along with a host of other problems that we already all know about.
So what I'm getting at is, yes, we'll lose a lot if those guys go to Free Agency, but let's not foolishly claim the Rangers are going to end up 72-90. The Rangers will sign people in FA, and they'll make trades, and they'll bring up AAA players. They'll win games.
"there is no way MY gets resigned."
Any particular reason?
@gnats: that's not what he was saying. He's just putting a list out there of players and their WAR-based contributions to give a sense of the depth and magnitude that will be facing the Rangers over the coming years.
I think he is, from this paragraph:
"That brings the total "wins" that the Rangers could potentially lose in free agency over the next two seasons to [...] 24 if you want to use Nathan's 2009 WAR. For some perspective if the Rangers were 24 games worse last year, they would have finished 72-90 and 13 games behind LAA."
This only has merit if the Rangers field a team comprised mainly of 0.0 WAR players (replacing said players listed above). That would not have been the case, at all.
The Rangers could lose a lot of great players over the next 2 years, but I trust that JD is not going to say "Welp, let's sign Ryan Doumit, Juan Rivera, Nelson Figueroa, Mike MacDougal, etc."
That equation fails to take account for the future contributors such as Profar and Martin and Perez. Nor does it account for higher WAR numbers that can be reasonably expected from Andrus, Holland etc.
But, yes, it would be a bit of a steep dropoff to let both Napoli and Hamilton walk.
I just read it as "these are the contributions of these players" and therefore, JD has a significant challenge in figuring out how to replace those. I guess it's just assumed that JD would try to replace them as effectively as possible. But I see your point, it does kinda read that way.
@Gnats, I almost left out the sentence you quoted and in hindsight, probably should have. I meant the argument though in the way that MrMan explained. Of course, I think JD will re-sign some of these players and will make moves to bring in above-average replacements for others. I was just throwing this out as a hypothetical to show how much value we are potentially losing and will need to replace in the next few years, whether through extensions, FA, promotion from minor leagues, etc. Plus, I thought putting it this way might provide some perspective in the many debates on BBTIA about who to keep, who to let go, etc.
@David_d, I disagree with your statement that "there is no way MY gets resigned." I think a more accurate statement is there is no way MY gets resigned if he insists on a similar amount of money and/or being an everyday position player. I don't think he will demand the same amount of money because nobody in the league will pay him that again; his current salary is the reason no one would trade for him a year ago. It is the second issue (playing the field) that might be more likely to drive him somewhere else.
RangersBu87 David D was talking to me. David D No MY is Gone JD and crew have to many young guys in the minors waiting for there chance to resign MY. I think MY is a great "team player" and a pretty good bat but his lack of defense and age are catching up with him. Unless he signs some Ridiculously lowball contract just so he can stay a Ranger I wouldn't count on him being back after this contract his up.
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