What is your opinion of the A.J. Pierzynski signing?
MJH on accountability
It's fun to kick around ideas about Prince Fielder, Yu Darvish, etc.
I think we're probably looking at an offseason much more demoralizing than we want to.
I think you'll see Texas sign Mark Buehrle, Ryan Madson, and move Feliz into the rotation. That's about it, with an outside shot that the Rangers sign Carlos Pena to a one-year deal and see if he pushes Moreland.
Ogando goes back to the pen, Oliver re-signs, and Mike Adams becomes the closer. Koji is traded back to Baltimore and Ryan Madson is the setup man.
So, even though I think we could use a blue-chip piece in the rotation or starting lineup, I don't think we're getting it. I think we're probably looking at something like this...
C - Napoli1B - Moreland/Pena2B - KinslerSS - Andrus3B - BeltreLF - HamiltonCF - Martin/GentryRF - CruzDH - Young
SP - LewisSP - HollandSP - BuehrleSP - HarrisonSP - Feliz
RP - Mark LoweRP - Yoshinori TateyamaRP - Scott FeldmanRP - Darren OliverSU - Alexi OgandoSU - Ryan MadsonCL - Mike Adams
Outside of a couple bullpen changes, I think that's close to what you'll see on opening day.
I think that would qualify as a quite successful, and expensive, offseason. Buerhle isn't chopped liver. And Madson isn't signing to set up, he'd be the closer with Adams continuing to set up.
I'd be floored if the Rangers signed Madson considering you are looking at a 4 year commitment in the 40 mil range.
I see you have Ogando listed in the bullpen. I wonder about that. For much of last season he was their most consistent starter. I also wonder what they will do with Feliz. I guess much of it depends on their ability to land a guy to lead the rotation.
I also wonder if Texas will bypass the expensive free agents and try to improve the team via a trade or two, using names like Scheppers, Profar, Olt, Borbon, Gentry, Uehara, and Torrealba as bait. JD is good at finding talent where others can't, and he's gotten pretty good at pulling off a surprise trade that favors the Rangers.
These are my opinions, so I won't get angry or insult those who disagree with them.
Im with WWJDD here, I doubt Madson is the type of FA JD will go after, I think it is more likely that JD uses some of those trade chips for some good pieces. I could see revisiting a possible deal for Andrew Bailey if Neffy gets moved to the rotation. Olt is really turning into the most likely to be traded this winter and he could be the centerpiece of a deal for Bailey, considering Oakland needs some offense.
I like the idea of Danks for a rotation of Feliz, Danks, Holland, Lewis, Harrison with Ogando in the pen to setup Adams, to set up Bailey ;)....then again, ever since that clutch ALDS and ALCS by the pen, I've found myself dreaming of JD putting together the most dominant bullpen in history.
I think what the Rangers SHOULD do is leave Feliz as the closer, Sign Kasey Kotchman to play first, sign a utility/clubhouse guy like Mark Derosa, sign another quality late inning guy, say Joe Nathan... Leave Ogando in the Rotation, let CJ walk and Sign Oswalt/Beuhrlie..... Also if he becomes available bid on Yu Darvish and the cuban Centerfielder Cepeda(spelling)..... If you dont sign Kotchman I know this wont be popular on this site.... But if they will do it Offer a package that starts with Josh Hamilton to the Giants for The Freak and Sign Fielder..... They Giants NEED NEED NEED offense and wont be able to lock up Lincecum.... We will be able to lock him up.... Just a few thoughts to get you guys going....
I would be down with a Fielder signing and a Josh trade for Freak, but I am afraid of how much more we would need to send to SF with Josh to get that done. If SF can't lock up Freak, they most likely won't be able to lock up Josh either.
90% positive we don't tender an offer for Murphy, which makes him a free agent.
100% We don't sign CJ as I think the years involved and not the $ is the main problem. Odds are, CJ will be declining soon and we've got a lot of young arms, and some should be ready to take an SP slot soon.
With CJ and Murph gone... that leaves a lot of cash for: Darvish.
60% sure we get Darvish. I think they push HARD on this front, The only concern is Boston and NY might spare no expense and we have a limit to how far we'll go.
IF we don't sign Darvish, I don't expect we sign a Buehrle-type vet. Too much $ for production we have a good chance of getting cheaply from within.
IF Darvish doesn't come here and If Fielder's still available, we might be forced to make a move, seeing how there's a good chance Josh and Nelly walk in the future, and Moreland can be the Murphy while they hope his bat develops into a tradeable highly-valued commodity. That's a really BIG IF though. Somebody will likely overspend for Fielder, and I like Moreland's uoside, so I won't be disappointed if Fielder goes somewhere else.
I'm not sold on Neftali being an effective starter this year. Don't like the walk rate and his tendency for putting himself into jams. Doing that 50 innings is one thing, but extend those innings out into starts and a lot more of those self-induced difficult jams will probably become blow up innings.... Hope I'm wrong and Neftali dominates.
100% they don't sign C.J. can't be right. Until he signs with someone else, the chance is always greater than 0%. I'm still uncertain how I feel about the C.J. situation, but I trust the Rangers to do what's best for all involved.
I do think that if Darvish is posted, we push hard for him. If we don't get him, I don't know what we do. But Buehrle has already received an offer from the Marlins (who aren't wasting time; they've also made offers to Pujols and Reyes), so he may be off the market by the time the Yu situation resolves itself (either with his not being posted, us not winning the bid, or us not signing him). If we don't end up with Darvish, and C.J. and Buehrle are unavailable by the time the dust settles, I don't know what we'll do. But I expect we'll have a contingency plan. I would expect no less from our guys.
I think TexPantego has the right idea. Wilson's gone. Rangers will push hard for Darvish. If that doesn't work out, they go after Buehrle/Danks. If they get one of those guys, there's a decision to be made about whether Feliz or Ogando gets the chance to start. (I certainly hope they get someone. I don't want to see a Holland, Lewis, Harrison, Ogando, Feliz rotation next year.)
What's the expected price for Buehrle and Danks? (I assume it's much higher for Danks b/c he's much younger and has more upside. He's bascially D. Holland, only further along in his development).
Would it be possible to sign Buehrle/Danks and sign Fielder?
I don't see Madson signing with us to be a setup guy, and I don't see the Rangers paying as much as Madson wants (and will probably get somewhere else) for a setup guy.
Danks is apparently on the trade block, but is not a FA until next year.
The second tier of SPs after Wilson is Buehrle and Oswalt. The third tier starts with Edwin Jackson.
I think it will be Darvish, Fielder, or both.
I think Ogando should stay in the rotation. Murphy stays. We extend 1 of kins/cruz/napnapweiner and acquire a buerle/danks/floyd/e jackson. I think neffy should be in the rotation about as much as i think elvis should be our cleanup hitter.
Who would the Rangers have to trade for Danks? If he's a FA next year, then he's basically a one-year rental. That sounds like a bad idea to me, unless everything else fall through.
Scoob may be right. The reason for getting Darvish are obvious:ace-level type stuff. The whole "Japanese pitchers don't do well in the show" is a nonissue to me. (A) Fact is, MOST pitchers that show early promise don't pan out, whether they're from Tokyo or Topeka. (B) Hideo Nomo had some really great years. Leading the league in Ks twice. A too-high walk rate and injuries dragged his career into average status, but in his healthy years, he ranged from good to very very good.
Signing Fielder gives us an elite bat that lessens the blow of lossing Josh and/or Nelly to FA in the future. It gives an EPICLY AWESOME batting order this year for a WS run but also an untenablely EPICLY AWSOME payroll, but only for one year, as Josh and/or Nellly liely walk and we get A draft picks and we go back to a reasonable salary level again.
I can't imagine we want to give much for a year of Danks. From what I can see, he's not good enough to rent for a year at the cost of anyone good or really promising - looks like he wouldn't be better than anyone currently in our rotation.
Buehrle intrigues me more. He's a FA right now and, though he's older, is obviously more proven. I'd sooner see us sign him than trade for Danks.
GINTGM (Glad I'm not the GM)
Isn't signing Fielder to a long-term expensive contract akin to what the FO did with Michael Young a few years back, paying for past performance. While I certainly won't deny that a lineup with Fielder in the thick of things would be tremendous for the next several years but how does that play out three or four years from now much less five to seven. If they can get him on a shorter term higher salary type deal say 4 yrs at 100 then yeah maybe but all indications are that its going to take 7 years at 150 to 175. For his body type and the likely hood that by the end of his contract we will be having the same discussions about paying too much for declining production that we had about MY this past year I don't think its worth it.
Also why do so many people continue to assume that NY has infinate amounts of money to spend on every free agent that comes available. This continues to facinate me because when Cliff Lee's agent went back to New York to ask for another year and more money to not go to Philly the yanks obviously drew the line somewhere and said nope that's more than we're willing to commit to. The yankees like every other club have limits to what they are willing to spend and most of that spending is already tied up in existing contracts or upcoming arbitration cases. Same with Boston.
I really don't see the market for CJ blowing up this year because most people seem to believe that he is a borderline #1 and therefore he won't demand ace type money. I personally think CJ stays put and the Rangers roll with a roster extremely similar to what we saw take the field last year and JD biding his time until early June/July to unleash a mindboggling flurry of trades.
Don't forget Greinke is a FA after this year and with Fielder leaving Milwaukee an early June trade between the Bucks and Rangers might be a better tactical move than breaking the bank for a non-premium position starter in December. Of course a lot of that will depend on what the Angels manage to pull off this winter also. But what if the Rangers keep everything the same and then go all out for Greinke to make another run at the WS. Doesn't a rotation of Greinke, Wilson, Holland, Harrison and Lewis do a lot more for you than one constructed of Lewis, Holland, Buerhle, Harrison and Feliz?
The team doesn't really need a "mindboggling flurry of trades" though. They are a very good team, as is, and one could argue that they could improve next year from experience alone. I have to keep reminding myself that everyone in the rotation last year was in the 1st or 2nd full year of starting in mlb. They do have some contract decisions to make about some guys, but every team does.
My belief is that they will not go after Fielder. There is a real concern that Darvish might not even come over this year, and so I still think Texas will make CJ a strong offer. I think they see players like Martin, Moreland, and Perez as future core guys, so I doubt they will trade either of those 3. That leaves Scheppers & Olt and Borbon - maybe Torrealba - as primary trade bait. I expect they will try to trade for a starter, and if that doesn't pan out early, they might go after Oswalt.
Going back to my original point, they don't need to overhaul the team. They have to solidify the rotation if CJ signs elsewhere, they need to get two lefty bullpen guys, they need to decide what role Ogando and Feliz will have, they need to get a UT, and they need to choose their 4th and 5th OFs.
It is not Darvish's decision whether he gets posted or not. The lack of starting pitching available makes it in the best interest of his team to post him this year to get the highest bid.
And if Fielder is so great, why would Doug Melvin opt to sign Braun, yet let Prince walk? Melvin is a smart man. His decision tells me all I need to know.
Just to clarify when I wrote mindboggling flurry of trades I wasn't refering necessarily to a large number of trades but rather the idea that possibly landing someone like Greinke would be somewhat mindboggling in addition to whatever else JD decideds to do. Not sure if this actually clarifies anything but I don't want anyone to think I believe JD needs to completely retool this roster. I would actually be very pleased if the roster looks similar to the way it did at the end of the season.
Melvin picked Braun over Prince because Braun took less money- because he was farther from Free Agency.
Prince's contract will be a "bad" contract by the end, just as Beltre's will be. But you just hope he puts up enough early #s to justify overpaying late, as Beltre did. He was worth more than his contract in Year 1, and you hope he provides enough surplus value over years 1-3 that he is worth the entire contract in the end. Same with Prince. You hope he's worth 25+ WAR over his 28-31 year old seasons, and thus justifies thw whole contract even if he's not worth his anual salaries in his 32-34 year old seasons. The difference with Michael Young his that he wasn't worth his anual salary when they gave him that contract. He had a career year in 2011 and was worth about his anual salary ($16m) with not surplus. He was worth about that in 2009 as well. 2009 & 2011 were 2 of the best 3 seasons of his career, and although he was roughly worth his contract in those years, he provided no real surplus value. By contrast, in 2008 & 2010 he wasn't worth half of his $16m anual salary. So through the first 4 years of the 6 year deal, he has not even been worth 2/3 of the total contract value, much less accumulating a surplus value in case his performance drops off with age.
@ricky...it's my understanding that the Ham's have made it clear that IF Darvish "wants" too be posted he will be. We all know that the process requires the team to do the posting, but the decision is ultimatly his.
Mike Gonzalez gets my vote for loogy.
Sign Mike Gonzalez and Lidge to help set up Adams and let Feliz move to the rotation with Feldman ready to step in if necessary. One condition here, if Feliz doesn't "want" the move to the rotation then you don't move him. I think he has to want it to make it happen. I'd certainly push him to want it though, because I want to see if he can do it. I'd hate to have him close only without knowing if that arm could play as a TORP.
I'd like to get one of Wilson, Buehrle Oswalt or Yu (I want to get Yu the most, and it's not my money), while keeping most of our minor leaguers for depth.
I would not move Ogando back to the pen because I think he showed he can be a top half of the rotation starter, and also with Feliz, you could move him back to the bullpen for the playoffs (if we get there) to ease the innings and use him much like Ogando from this year.
So a rotation of Lewis, Holland, Ogando, Harrison and then Wilson/Buehrle/Oswalt/Yu/Feliz/Feldman would allow for injuries and tired arms and bad performances throughout the season. Plus we still have Perez, Scheppers and Ramierez, who could potentially help out the major league squad if things fall right.
With all of the extentions and increasing contracts in the coming years, I'd want to keep the youth coming up to help balance the payroll.
If any "mind boggling" trade needs to happen, as much as the reds deny it I'd love to see a Tex/Cin blockbuster trade for Votto and Cueto. I dunno how they'd do it. i dunno how much it'd take... but if the FO could pull that off i think we'd be more than set as long as youre keeping the core intact. Votto is the 1B we havent had since Tex, and Cueto is pretty much the exact equivelant of CJ without having to actually sign CJ to a huge contract. Nibbler, high walk rate, can strike ppl out like nobody's business, keeps a low ERA and you can expect 15+ W a season. I'd take it and i think the state of the Reds is being seriously overrated by their fans and the media. one playoff trip and an immediate ouster doesnt count for much, and the "elite" pitcing staff they were basing their team on isnt working minus Cueto's seriously underrated past few seasons (yes, we've est. a long time ago I have a mad man crush on the predator, lol) My only worry with Cueto is he's Tommy Hunter, CC, Joba, chunky... and I dont know how he'd handle the heat in Texas. Granted Colby's a failry big guy and he did well his first year, granted immediately went on to lose 15-20 lbs to read the next season...
potential lineup1b Votto2b Kins3b BeltreSS ElvisLF HamboneCF Martin/GentryRF Nellie (although with all his post season greatness I could see him as a major trade chip for said blockbuster trade.. )C NapsDH MVPY
Rotation (5 out of the 6)/Granted Feliz/Ogando could be a casualty of this trade as well....
Just a thought, although most of mine are shot down and crucified as soon as they post lol, but that would be my "mind boggling" trade rather than anything invloving greinke and fielder. just my opinion though
Im willing to bet, that what the Rangers do is what we have done the past few years........get Ranger type guys. The one thing that anybody brough in is going to have to do is fit what Wash wants from his ball players. He wants someone who 1) Plays the game the right way 2) Always plays hard 3) does what the game asks him to do 4) is a great club house guy 5) can take and respond to coaching. Think of the player brought in here the past offseason, Beltre - fits all those requirments. Nap - fits all those requirments, ect. So with that being said, I say there is a chance he sign Filder. Not a hughe chance, but a chance. I think most of our improvement however will come from withhin - players growing up a little bit and trading prospects. I could see a danks...of even a Shields in here. But in John Daniels and Wash I trust. So they have a gameplan A, B, C, D, E, F, and G.
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